Influence of SST in Low Latitudes on the Arctic Warming and Sea Ice

Global climate models, focused on projecting anthropogenic warming, have not detected an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at low latitudes comparable to the observed one. This appears to be one reason for the discrepancy between the model estimates of warming and reduction of the sea ice extent in the Arctic and the observed changes in the climate system. In previous studies, it was shown that short-term manifestations of the impact of low latitudes on the Arctic climate were identified in 2–3 weeks as a result of strengthening of atmospheric circulation patterns. In this paper, for the first time, a climatic relationship was established among an increase in SST, air temperature, and water vapor content at low latitudes, and a decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. ECMWF Re-Analysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), sea ice archives of the World Centers NSIDC (USA), and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia), observations of water temperature in the Kola section (33°30′ E), calculated sea ice parameters using the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute coupled ice-ocean circulation model (AARI–IOCM). Methods of multivariate correlation analysis, calculating spectra and coherence, and creating correlation graphs were used to obtain the results. For the first time, estimates of the effect of heat transport from low to high latitudes on climate change and sea ice extent in the Arctic over the past 40 years have been obtained, explaining a significant part of their variability. The increase in heat transport is affected by an increase in SST at low latitudes, where a significant part of the solar heat is accumulated. Due to the increase in SST, the amount of heat transported by the ocean and the atmosphere from low latitudes to the Arctic increases, leading to an increase in the air temperature, water vapor content, downward longwave radiation at high latitudes, and a decrease in the thickness and extent of winter sea ice. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: the role of heat and moisture transport in the Arctic warming, effect of SST at low latitudes on transports, linkage of warming in low latitudes and in shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

Comment on Invariability of relationship between the polar cap magnetic activity and geoeffective interplanetary electric field by Troshichev et al. (2011)

In the publication Troshichev et al. (2006) on the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN (North) and PCS (South), an error was made by using components of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in their Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) representation instead of the prescribed Geocentric Solar Magnetosphere (GSM) representation for calculations of index scaling parameters in the version AARI_1998-2001 (named AARI#3) issued from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) in St Petersburg, Russia. The mistake has caused a trail of incorrect relations and wrong conclusions extending since 2006 up to now (2020). The authors of the publication commented here, Troshichev, Podorozhkina, Janzhura (2011): Invariability of relationship between the polar cap magnetic activity and geoeffective interplanetary electric field, Ann. Geophys., 29, 1479-1489, state that they have used scaling parameters of the (invalid) AARI#3 PC index version in their work but have substituted parameters from the more recent AARI_1995-2005 (AARI#4) version instead. The mingling of PC index versions have resulted in erroneous illustrations in their Figs. 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8 and the issuing of non-substantiated statements.

Do Vessels Remain Within Their Operational Limitations in Ice? Analyzing the Risks of Vessels Operating in the Kara Sea Region Using POLARIS

This study investigates whether the vessels remain within their operational limitations in ice using the risk index calculated based on the Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) — an acceptable methodology for the assessment of operational limitations in ice infested waters, referenced in the Polar Code of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The speeds and positions of the vessels in the Kara Sea region were analyzed from January through April for 2017–2019 using the navigational data provided by the Northern Sea Route Administration. For each vessel, except for the icebreakers, the risk index based on POLARIS was calculated using the open-access ice information that was provided by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Russia. The variation of risk index was analyzed with respect to various parameters such as the ice-class of the vessel, the reported operating speed of the vessel, and the built year of the vessel. Furthermore, we explored the limitations of the risk assessment system as well as the limitations of the available ice information and its implications on the risk assessment system. This paper reports preliminary results from the analysis.

MYCOLOGICAL DAMAGE OF MATERIALS IN THE INDOOR ENVIRONMENT AS A RISK FACTOR FOR THE HEALTH OF POLAR EXPLORERS

The article presents the results of mycological analysis of samples taken from open surfaces in residential and working areas of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) station on the Bolshevik island of the Northern Land archipelago. 114 samples were studied during the expedition work from 2014 to 2016. In total, 47 species of micromycetes were detected in the course of the research. Most of the species (89%) were identified as Ascomycetes. Mucor group of fungi was composed 11% out of all the identified species. The genus Penicillium was the richest in species diversity (16 species). On the surface of materials in places of the increased moisture, there was an open growth of colonies of the Penicillium species. P. expansum was the dominant one, being noted during all the years of observations with the occurrence of about 60%. Among the frequently occurring species, there were P. brevicompactum, P. herqueri, P. purpurogenum and P. waksmanii, which were also noted during all the years of observation (the total occurrence exceeded 15%, although in some years it was much higher). Dark-colored fungus Cladosporium cladosporioides was also dominated species, which in some cases formed black mold on the surface of the materials. Among the potential pathogens, 41 species were registered. A comparison of the data obtained over the years indicates in 2016 the largest number of microfungi to be detected in the indoor environment of AARI station (35 species), whereas in 2014 and 2015 only 29 species of fungi were identified. The similarity of the identified groups of fungi over the years turned out to be quite high. Approximately 36% of microfungi (17 species) were observed annually, although their occurrence over the years varied significantly. Locally accumulation of micromycetes was noted in the indoor environment: household rooms, storage places, workrooms. In these cases, the microfungi colonized the colorful coating, synthetic materials, plywood. The formation of mycobiota in the studied areas is due to anthropogenic invasion of microfungi.

Estimation of Arctic land-fast ice cover based on dual-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR imagery

Here a method for estimating the land-fast ice (LFI) extent from dual-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR mosaics of an Arctic study area over the Kara and Barents seas is presented. The method is based on temporal cross-correlation between adjacent daily SAR mosaics. The results are compared to the LFI of the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) ice charts. Two versions of the method were studied: in the first version (FMI-A) the overall performance was optimized, and in the second version (FMI-B) the target was a low LFI misdetection rate. FMI-A detected over 73 % of the AARI ice chart LFI, and FMI-B a little over 50 % of the AARI ice chart LFI. During the winter months the detection rates were higher than during the melt-down season for both the studied algorithm versions. An LFI time series covering the time period from October 2015 to the end of August 2017 computed using the proposed methodology is provided on the FMI ftp server. The time series will be extended twice annually.

Estimation of Arctic Land-Fast Ice Cover based on SENTINEL-1 SAR Imagery

Here we present a method for estimating the land-fast ice (LFI) extent from SENTINEL-1 SAR mosaics over an Arctic study area over Kara and Barents Seas. The method is based on temporal cross-correlation between adjacent day SAR mosaics. The results are compared to the LFI of the Russian Arctic-Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) ice charts. A LFI time series covering the time period from October 2015 to the end of August 2017 computed using the presented methodology is provided on our ftp server. The time series will be extended twice annually.