scholarly journals Influence of SST in Low Latitudes on the Arctic Warming and Sea Ice

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1145
Author(s):  
Genrikh V. Alekseev ◽  
Natalia I. Glok ◽  
Anastasia E. Vyazilova ◽  
Natalia E. Kharlanenkova ◽  
Mikhail Yu. Kulakov
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Antarctic Research Institute ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Antarctic Research ◽  
First Time

Global climate models, focused on projecting anthropogenic warming, have not detected an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at low latitudes comparable to the observed one. This appears to be one reason for the discrepancy between the model estimates of warming and reduction of the sea ice extent in the Arctic and the observed changes in the climate system. In previous studies, it was shown that short-term manifestations of the impact of low latitudes on the Arctic climate were identified in 2–3 weeks as a result of strengthening of atmospheric circulation patterns. In this paper, for the first time, a climatic relationship was established among an increase in SST, air temperature, and water vapor content at low latitudes, and a decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. ECMWF Re-Analysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), sea ice archives of the World Centers NSIDC (USA), and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia), observations of water temperature in the Kola section (33°30′ E), calculated sea ice parameters using the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute coupled ice-ocean circulation model (AARI–IOCM). Methods of multivariate correlation analysis, calculating spectra and coherence, and creating correlation graphs were used to obtain the results. For the first time, estimates of the effect of heat transport from low to high latitudes on climate change and sea ice extent in the Arctic over the past 40 years have been obtained, explaining a significant part of their variability. The increase in heat transport is affected by an increase in SST at low latitudes, where a significant part of the solar heat is accumulated. Due to the increase in SST, the amount of heat transported by the ocean and the atmosphere from low latitudes to the Arctic increases, leading to an increase in the air temperature, water vapor content, downward longwave radiation at high latitudes, and a decrease in the thickness and extent of winter sea ice. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: the role of heat and moisture transport in the Arctic warming, effect of SST at low latitudes on transports, linkage of warming in low latitudes and in shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

scholarly journals Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kodaira ◽  
Takuji Waseda ◽  
Takehiko Nose ◽  
Jun Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Highly Correlated

AbstractArctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing during the recent period of global warming. One of the significant factors of the Arctic sea ice loss is oceanic heat transport from lower latitudes. For months of sea ice formation, the variations in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Arctic region were highly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the seasonal sea surface temperatures recorded their highest values in autumn 2018 when the PDO index was neutral. It is shown that the anomalous warm seawater was a rapid ocean response to the southerly winds associated with episodic atmospheric blocking over the Bering Sea in September 2018. This warm seawater was directly observed by the R/V Mirai Arctic Expedition in November 2018 to significantly delay the southward sea ice advance. If the atmospheric blocking forms during the PDO positive phase in the future, the annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent could be dramatically reduced.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Daily Variability and Seasonal Cycle of Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Globe during the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 8537-8561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Chen ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Yaocun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases will not only raise Earth’s temperature but may also change its variability and seasonal cycle. Here CMIP5 model data are analyzed to quantify these changes in surface air temperature (Tas) and investigate the underlying processes. The models capture well the mean Tas seasonal cycle and variability and their changes in reanalysis, which shows decreasing Tas seasonal amplitudes and variability over the Arctic and Southern Ocean from 1979 to 2017. Daily Tas variability and seasonal amplitude are projected to decrease in the twenty-first century at high latitudes (except for boreal summer when Tas variability increases) but increase at low latitudes. The day of the maximum or minimum Tas shows large delays over high-latitude oceans, while it changes little at low latitudes. These Tas changes at high latitudes are linked to the polar amplification of warming and sea ice loss, which cause larger warming in winter than summer due to extra heating from the ocean during the cold season. Reduced sea ice cover also decreases its ability to cause Tas variations, contributing to the decreased Tas variability at high latitudes. Over low–midlatitude oceans, larger increases in surface evaporation in winter than summer (due to strong winter winds, strengthened winter winds in the Southern Hemisphere, and increased winter surface humidity gradients over the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes), coupled with strong ocean mixing in winter, lead to smaller surface warming in winter than summer and thus increased seasonal amplitudes there. These changes result in narrower (wider) Tas distributions over the high (low) latitudes, which may have important implications for other related fields.

Sea ice metadata for Billefjorden and Grnfjorden, Svalbard

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris V. Ivanov ◽  
Pavel N. Sviashchennikov ◽  
Danila M. Zhuravskiy ◽  
Alexey K. Pavlov ◽  
Eirik J. Frland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
State Archive ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Antarctic Research Institute ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Antarctic Research

Description of sea ice conditions in the fjords of Svalbard is crucial for sea transport as well as studies of local climate and climate change. Old observations from the Russian Hydrometeorological stations in the mining settlements Barentsburg (Grnfjorden) and Pyramiden (Billefjorden) have now been digitized. These visual and instrumental observations are archived in the State Archive of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) and Murmansk Branch of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service. In this paper, we bring an overview of the sea ice metadata with few examples of yearly changes in sea ice extent.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley de Nooijer ◽  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Xiangyu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Amplification Ratio ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract. Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90° N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4 × 06 km2 with a MMM anomaly of −5.6 × 106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial. The majority (11 out of 16) models simulate summer sea ice-free conditions (≤ 1 × 06 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regards to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that, while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification, an increase instead of a decrease in AMOC strength compared to pre-industrial, and a lesser strengthening of northern modes of variability than CMIP5 future climate simulations. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

scholarly journals Influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics on the Antarctic sea ice under global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. V. Alekseev ◽  
N. I. Glok ◽  
A. E. Vyasilova ◽  
N. E. Ivanov ◽  
N. E. Kharlanenkova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Antarctic Polar Front ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Sea ice fields in the Antarctic, in contrast to the Arctic ones, did not show a reduction in observed global warming, whereas the global climate models indicate its certain decrease. The purpose of the study is to explain this climatic phenomenon on the basis of the idea of joint dynamics of oceanic structures in the Southern Ocean – the Antarctic polar front and the margin of the maximum distribution of sea ice. We used data from the ERA/Interim and HadISST as well as the database on the sea ice for 1979–2017. Relationship between the SST-anomalies in low latitudes of the Northern hemisphere and positions of the Antarctic polar front and maximum sea-ice extent was investigated. It was found that locations of these structures changed under the influence of the SST anomalies in low latitudes. The results obtained confirm existence of the opposite trends in changes in the sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic under the influence of the SST anomalies in the central North Atlantic Ocean. When positive, the anomalies cause a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Hadley circulation to the North, while, on the contrary, the negative anomaly promotes the corresponding shift of the Antarctic polar front, followed by the boundary of sea ice.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 2325-2341
Author(s):  
Wesley de Nooijer ◽  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Xiangyu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract. Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to -10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of -5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kodaira ◽  
Takuji Waseda ◽  
Takehiko Nose ◽  
Jun Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>Arctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing during the recent period of global warming. One of the significant factors of the Arctic sea ice loss is oceanic heat transport from lower latitudes. For months of sea ice formation, the variations in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Arctic region were highly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the seasonal sea surface temperatures recorded their highest values in autumn 2018 when the PDO index was neutral. It is shown that the anomalous warm seawater was a rapid ocean response to the southerly winds associated with episodic atmospheric blocking over the Bering Sea in September 2018. This warm seawater was directly observed by the R/V Mirai Arctic Expedition in November 2018 to significantly delay the southward sea ice advance. If the atmospheric blocking forms during the PDO positive phase in the future, the annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent could be dramatically reduced.</p>

scholarly journals Surface Freshwater Fluxes in the Arctic and Subarctic Seas during Contrasting Years of High and Low Summer Sea Ice Extent

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1570
Author(s):  
Sarah B. Hall ◽  
Bulusu Subrahmanyam ◽  
Ebenezer S. Nyadjro ◽  
Annette Samuelsen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent

Freshwater (FW) flux between the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waterways, predominantly driven by wind and oceanic currents, influences halocline stability and annual sea ice variability which further impacts global circulation and climate. The Arctic recently experienced anomalous years of high and low sea ice extent in the summers of 2013/2014 and 2012/2016, respectively. Here we investigate the interannual variability of oceanic surface FW flux in relation to spatial and temporal variability in sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on years with summer sea–ice extremes. Our analysis between 2010–2018 illustrate high parameter variability, especially within the Laptev, Kara, and Barents seas, as well as an overall decreasing trend of FW flux through the Fram Strait. We find that in 2012, a maximum average FW flux of 0.32 × 103 ms−1 in October passed over a large portion of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean at 53°N. This study highlights recent changes in the Arctic and Subarctic Seas and the importance of continued monitoring of key variables through remote sensing to understand the dynamics behind these ongoing changes. Observations of FW fluxes through major Arctic routes will be increasingly important as the polar regions become more susceptible to warming, with major impacts on global climate.

scholarly journals Changes of the Arctic marginal ice zone

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Rolph ◽  
Daniel L. Feltham ◽  
David Schroeder
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Marginal Ice Zone ◽  
First Time

Abstract. Many studies have shown a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent. It does not logically follow, however, that the extent of the marginal ice zone (MIZ), here defined as the area of the ocean with ice concentrations from 15 to 80 %, is also changing. Here, we present, for the first time, an analysis of satellite observations of pan-Arctic averaged MIZ extent. We find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations. We present simulations from a coupled sea ice-ocean mixed layer model using a prognostic floe size distribution which we find is consistent with, but poorly constrained by, existing satellite observations of pan-Arctic MIZ extent. We provide seasonal upper and lower bounds on MIZ extent based on the 4 satellite-derived sea ice concentration datasets used. An extrapolation of the observations shows the MIZ extent as remaining relatively constant in the coming decades, at least until the Arctic is completely covered by seasonal ice. We find a small increase in the summer MIZ fraction (MIZ extent divided by sea ice extent), which can be attributed to the reduction in total sea ice extent. The MIZ location is trending northwards, consistent with other studies. Given the results of this study, we suggest that future studies need to remain cautious and provide a specific and clear definition when stating the MIZ is ‘rapidly changing’.

scholarly journals Identification, characteristics, and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Hartmuth ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Heini Wernli ◽  
Lukas Papritz
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Surface Energy Balance ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Ice Coverage

Abstract. The Arctic atmosphere is strongly affected by anthropogenic warming leading to long-term trends in, e.g., surface temperature and sea ice extent. In addition, it exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle and strong variability on time scales from days to seasons. Recent research elucidated processes causing short-term extreme conditions in the Arctic that are typically related to the occurrence of specific weather systems. This study investigates unusual atmospheric conditions in the Arctic on the seasonal time scale, characterized by surface temperature, surface precipitation, and the atmospheric components of the surface energy balance. Based on a principle component analysis in the phase space spanned by the seasonal-mean values of the considered parameters, individual seasons are then objectively identified that deviate strongly from a running-mean climatology, and that we define as extreme seasons. Given the strongly varying surface conditions in the Arctic, this analysis is done separately in Arctic sub-regions that are climatologically characterized by either sea ice, open ocean, or mixed conditions. Using ERA5 reanalyses for the years 1979–2018, our approach identifies 2–3 extreme seasons for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively, with strongly differing characteristics and affecting different Arctic sub-regions. While some show strongly anomalous seasonal-mean values mainly in one parameter, others are characterized by a combination of very unusual seasonal conditions in terms of temperature, precipitation, and the surface energy balance components. Two extreme winters affecting the Kara-Barents Seas are then selected for a detailed investigation of (i) their substructure, (ii) the role of synoptic-scale weather systems that occur during the season, and (iii) potential preconditioning by anomalous sea ice extent and/or sea surface temperature at the beginning of the season. Winter 2011/12 shows the highest surface temperature anomaly in parts of the Kara-Barents Seas (about +5 K), which was due to constantly above-average temperatures during the season related to a strongly enhanced frequency of blocking anticyclones in the Kara-Barents Seas and a strongly reduced frequency of cold air outbreaks. Sea ice coverage was normal at the beginning of the season and then developed a negative anomaly due to the unusually high temperatures. In contrast, winter 2016/17 started with a strongly negative anomaly in sea ice coverage and a strongly positive anomaly in sea surface temperature in the Kara-Barents Seas, which remained during most of the season. The combination of this preconditioning with specific synoptic conditions, i.e., a particularly high frequency of cold air outbreaks and an increased frequency of cyclones, was responsible for the extreme characteristics of this season, reflected in large upward surface heat flux anomalies and strongly increased precipitation. In summary, this study shows that extreme seasonal conditions in the Arctic are spatially heterogeneous, related to different near-surface parameters, and caused by different synoptic-scale weather systems, potentially in combination with surface preconditioning due to anomalous ocean and sea ice conditions at the beginning of the season. The framework developed in this study and the insight gained from analyzing the ERA5 period will be beneficial for addressing the effects of global warming on Arctic extreme seasons.

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