Prognostic factors for elderly gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy

Background Patients with gastric cancer are aging in Japan. It is not clear which patients and which surgical procedures have survival benefits after gastrectomy. A multivariate analysis was performed. Methods The medical records of 166 patients aged ≥ 80 years who underwent gastrectomy without macroscopic residual tumors were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were performed to detect prognostic factors for overall survival. Results In univariate analyses, age (≥ 90 vs. ≥ 80, < 85), performance status (3 vs. 0), American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) (3, 4 vs. 1, 2), Onodera’s prognostic nutritional index (< 40 vs. ≥ 45), the physiological score of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) (≥ 40 vs. ≥ 20, ≤ 29), surgical approach (laparoscopic vs. open), extent of gastrectomy (total, proximal vs. distal), extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. ≥ D2), pathological stage (II–IV vs. I), and residual tumor (R1 vs. R0) were significantly correlated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that ASA-PS [3, 4 vs. 1, 2, hazard ratio (HR) 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24–4.24], extent of gastrectomy (total vs. distal, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.10–4.31) (proximal vs. distal, HR 4.05, 95% CI 1.45–11.3), extent of lymphadenectomy (D0 vs. ≥ D2, HR 12.4, 95% CI 1.58–97.7), and pathological stage were independent risk factors for mortality. Conclusions ASA-PS was a useful predictor for postoperative mortality. Gastrectomy including cardia is best avoided.

P-EGS17 Evaluation of Different Surgical Risk Prediction Models in Predicting Morbidity and Mortality in Emergency Giant Hiatus and Diaphragmatic Hernia Repairs

Background Emergency presentation of giant hiatus and diaphragmatic hernias are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and predicting perioperative risks can be difficult. There are several preoperative risk evaluation models used commonly in emergency general surgery. Not only can they help clinicians stratify risk, but they can also be valuable tools to outline surgical risks to patients and families. This study aimed to evaluate the suitability of different risk prediction models when predicting morbidity and mortality in emergency giant hiatus and diaphragmatic hernia repairs. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of all emergency hiatus and diaphragmatic hernia repairs at a tertiary upper gastrointestinal centre from 2010 to 2021. The outcomes were compared to the predicted mortality and morbidity of different risk prediction models. The mortality models SORT (Surgical Outcome Risk Tool), NELA (National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) and ACS-NSQIP (American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme) were compared using the area under the curve (AUC). Morbidity was evaluated by calculating the comprehensive complication index (CCI). CCI was compared to P-POSSUM (Portsmouth – Physiological and Operative Severity Score) and ACS-NSQIP predicted morbidity using Spearman correlation. Results 108 patients were included in the analysis. 49.1% were female, and 50.9% were male. The median age was 69 (IQR 59-78). The 30-day mortality rate was 6.93%. ACS-NSQIP had the highest predictive power for mortality (AUC = 0.845), in comparison to NELA (AUC=0.809) and SORT (AUC = 0.740). Both ACS-NSQIP and P-POSSUM showed moderate correlation to CCI (rho = 0.489, p &lt; 0.001 and 0.446, p &lt; 0.001 respectively). Conclusions ACS-NSQIP is a better predictor of both mortality and morbidity in emergency giant hiatus and diaphragmatic hernia repairs when compared to NELA, P-POSSUM and SORT. ACS-NSQIP may have a role in pre-assessment and consenting of emergency giant hiatus and diaphragmatic hernia repairs. Multi-centre prospective studies could be used to validate these findings.

Perioperative Risk Stratification: A Need for an Improved Assessment in Surgery and Anesthesia—A Pilot Study

Background and Objectives: Numerous scoring systems have been introduced into modern medicine. None of the scoring systems assessed both anesthetic and surgical risk of the patient, predict the morbidity, mortality, or the need for postoperative intensive care unit admission. The aim of this study was to compare the anesthetic and surgical scores currently used, for a better evaluation of perioperative risks, morbidity, and mortality. Material and Methods: This is a pilot, prospective, observational study. We enrolled 50 patients scheduled for elective surgery. Anesthetic and surgery risk was assessed using American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Surgical APGAR Score (SAS) scores. The real and the estimated length of stay (LOS) were registered. Results: We obtained several statistically significant positive correlations: ASA score–P-POSSUM (p < 0.01, r = 0.465); ASA score–SAS, (p < 0.01, r = −0.446); ASA score–APACHE II, (p < 0.01 r = 0.519); predicted LOS and ASA score (p < 0.01, r = 0.676); predicted LOS and p-POSSUM (p < 0.01, r = 0.433); and predicted LOS and APACHE II (p < 0.01, r = 0.454). A significant negative correlation between predicted LOS, real LOS, ASA class, and SAS (p < 0.05) was observed. We found a statistically significant difference between the predicted and actual LOS (p < 001). Conclusions: Anesthetic, surgical, and severity scores, used together, provide clearer information about mortality, morbidity, and LOS. ASA scale, associated with surgical scores and severity scores, presents a better image of the patient’s progress in the perioperative period. In our study, APACHE II is the best predictor of mortality, followed by P-POSSUM and SAS. P-POSSUM score and ASA scale may be complementary in terms of preoperative physiological factors, providing valuable information for postoperative outcomes.

429 Preoperative Risk Assessment In Elective Colorectal Patients

Introduction Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing (CPET) and the Colorectal Physiology and Operative Severity Score (CR-POSSUM) are increasingly used in colorectal surgical practice to risk-stratify patients preoperatively and for planning level 2 HDU or ITU admission. This study aims to generate a simple, objective pre-operative risk assessment model to complement clinical judgement, and to determine objectively for whom CPET is necessary in colorectal pre-assessment. Method A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Demographic and perioperative data were gathered, and CR-POSSUM score was determined retrospectively. Mortality at 12 months was considered the primary outcome with readmissions up to 12 months as secondary outcomes. Statistical analysis used Binary Logistic Regression, and odds ratios were reported with confidence intervals. A new combined pre-operative risk assessment model with the most significant individual predictors was constructed. Results Some 167 elective patients were included in the final analysis. Half of patients had planned HDU admissions. The all-cause mortality at 90 days was 3.5% and at 12 months was 11%. Readmission rate at 30 days was 10%, with a further 11.3% at 90 days postoperatively. The ASA, Physiology Score and Operative Severity Scores correlated with mortality rates (p &lt; 0.05). Current diagnostic performance using CPET vs. the combined model identified 48% and 35% ‘high risk’ patients with 83.3% and 56.5% vs 94.4% and 76.1% sensitivity and specificity, respectively. The model draws its predictive power mainly from the CR-POSSUM. Conclusions Current practice at the study centre produces outcomes above the national average. The process can be improved whilst focusing resources further using the combined model.

Prognostic Factors for Elderly Gastric Cancer Patients who Underwent Gastrectomy

Background: Patients with gastric cancer are aging in Japan. It is not clear which patients and which surgical procedures have survival benefits after gastrectomy. A multivariate analysis was performed.Methods: The medical records of 166 patients aged ≥80 years who underwent gastrectomy without macroscopic residual tumors were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were performed to detect prognostic factors for overall survival.Results: In univariate analyses, age (≥90 vs. ≥80, <85), performance status (3 vs. 0), the physiological score of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) (≥40 vs. ≥20, ≤29), Onodera’s prognostic nutritional index (<40 vs. ≥45), American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) (3, 4 vs. 1, 2), surgical approach (laparoscopic vs. open), extent of gastrectomy (total, proximal vs. distal), extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. ≥D2), pathological stage (II-IV vs. I), and residual tumor (R1 vs. R0) were significantly correlated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that ASA-PS [3, 4 vs. 1, 2, hazard ratio (HR) 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-4.24], extent of gastrectomy (total vs distal, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.10-4.31), (proximal vs. distal, HR 4.05, 95% CI 1.45-11.3), extent of lymphadenectomy (D0 vs. ≥D2, HR 12.4, 95% CI 1.58-97.7) and pathological stage were independent risk factors for mortality.Conclusions: ASA-PS was a useful predictor for postoperative mortality. Gastrectomy including cardia and excessive limitation of lymphadenectomy are best avoided.

New score for prediction of morbidity in patients undergoing open pancreaticoduodenectomy

Objective The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is commonly used to predict the risk of postoperative complications in general surgery. However, use of the POSSUM is not absolutely suitable for open pancreaticoduodenectomy (OPD), which has unique complications such as pancreatic fistula formation. This study was performed to establish a new risk score for assessing the incidence of postoperative complications of OPD. Methods This retrospective case-control study involved 159 patients who underwent standard OPD from 2 January 2017 to 1 February 2019. The risk factors for post-OPD complications were statistically investigated, and a risk score model was established by multivariate logistic regression. Results Among all 159 patients, 72 (42.28%) developed complications. A scoring system was developed based on the following five independent variables: sodium concentration of <141.20 mmol/L, white blood cell count of >6.35 × 109/L, pancreatic texture grade, body mass index of >25.06 kg/m2, and basic respiratory diseases. Our risk score model demonstrated better discriminating power, prediction power, and prediction probability than the POSSUM model in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Conclusion This novel risk score may help to predict postoperative complications after OPD with higher accuracy than the POSSUM system.

РЕАЛІЗАЦІЯ ФІЗИЧНОЇ ТЕРАПІЇ ПРИ КОМПЛЕКСНОМУ ЛІКУВАННІ ГОСТРОЇ ХІРУРГІЧНОЇ ПАТОЛОГІЇ ОРГАНІВ ЧЕРЕВНОЇ ПОРОЖНИНИ В УМОВАХ ЗАГАЛЬНОХІРУРГІЧНОГО ВІДДІЛЕННЯ

Резюме. Теоретико-методичне обґрунтування фізичної терапії у системі лікування гострої хірургічної патології органів черевної порожнини залишається недостатньо дослідженим та мало висвітленим у спеціальній літературі, зокрема з огляду відсутності стандарту її застосування, та слабко вивченого впливу на результати лікування. Метою дослідження ­– вивчити стан практичного розв’язання проблеми фізичної терапії при комплексному лікуванні невідкладних абдомінальних хірургічних захворювань в умовах окремого загальнохірургічного відділення як репрезентуючої одиниці системи надання допомоги хворим із гострою хірургічною патологією органів черевної порожнини. Матеріали і методи. Ретроспективно проаналізовано результати стаціонарного лікування 420 пацієнтів, пролікованих у зв’язку із гострою хірургічною абдомінальною патологією упродовж 2019 р. у загальнохірургічних відділеннях двох закладів охорони здоров’я вторинної ланки. Проведено оцінку тяжкості стану пацієнтів за шкалою анестезіологічної оцінки фізичного стану пацієнта перед операцією ASA ІІ та прогнозу несприятливих наслідків за інтегральною системою оцінки ризику ускладнень та смертності POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity), виявлено ряд достовірно значущих взаємопов’язаних та взаємообтяжуючих чинників, що зумовлювали тяжкість перебігу захворювання та впливали на результати лікування. Результати. З огляду на результати проведеного ретроспективного дослідження результатів лікування гострої хірургічної патології органів черевної порожнини, доведено актуальність науково-прикладної проблеми теоретико-методичного обґрунтування фізичної терапії (ФТ) як важливої інтегрованої складової системи комплексного лікування невідкладних абдомінальних хірургічних захворювань. Висновки. Подальшими завданнями, що повинні бути вирішені для розв’язання, є: виявлення закономірностей, встановлення принципів та методичних положень, розробка концепції, визначення критеріїв застосування, експериментальна перевірка ефективності реалізаційних положень концепції фізичної терапії у системі комплексного лікування гострої хірургічної патології органів черевної порожнини.

Evaluation of the validity of POSSUM and P-POSSUM score in predicting the risk of morbidity and mortality respectively in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy

Background: Aim of this study is to examine the efficacy of Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth predictor modification (P-POSSUM) equations in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, to study the morbidity and mortality patterns in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at Malla Reddy Institute of Medical Sciences, Hyderabad. Methods: The study was conducted for a period of 2 years from February 2018 to February 2020. 100 Patients undergoing emergency laparotomy were studied in the Department of General surgery MRIMS, Hyderabad. POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores are used to predict mortality and morbidity. The ratio of observed to expected deaths (O:E ratio) was calculated for each analysis. Results: The study included total 100 patients, 83 men and 17 women. Observed mortality rate was compared to mortality rate with POSSUM, the O:E ratio was 0.62, and there was no significant difference between the observed and predicted values (χ²=10.79, 9 degree of freedom (df) p=0.148). Observed morbidity rates were compared to morbidity rates predicted by POSSUM, there was no significant difference between the observed and predicted values (χ²=9.89, 9 df, p=0.195) and the overall O:E ratio was 0.91. P-POSSUM predicted mortality equally well when the linear method of analysis was used, with an O:E ratio of 0.65 and no significant difference between the observed and predicted values (χ²= 5.33, 9 df, p= 0.617).Conclusion: POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring is an accurate predictor of mortality and morbidity following emergency laparotomy and is a valid means of assessing adequacy of care provided to the patient.