Safeguard measures and fresh produce trade: The case of U.S. blueberry imports

Safeguard measures are used to limit excessive import growth and protect domestic producers from unfair import competition. The global safeguard investigation for blueberries highlights these concerns and raises questions about the relationship between imports, prices, and the well-being of U.S. producers. Although the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that imports have not caused serious injury to U.S. blueberry producers, it was important to further examine this issue. In this study, we employ an inverse demand model and dynamic Vector Autoregressive (VAR) procedure linking source-specific fresh blueberry imports from countries like Mexico and Chile to U.S. blueberry prices. Our results mostly support the USITC ruling. Results indicate that declines in U.S. prices are small when compared to the level of import growth. Impulse response functions indicate that import price shocks are not long lasting.

Revisiting the link between cereal diversity and production in Ethiopia

Studies show that cereal diversity positively affects mean yields, suggesting increased crop diversity as a means of increasing production (Di Falco and Chavas 2009, Baumg¨artner and Quaas 2010). In practice though, agricultural development has relied on non- diverse systems. Using the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey panel we revisit this para- dox and disentangle the effects of agro-ecological zones and composition of crop diversity. We find a positive effect of greater cereal diversity on cereal production, but mostly in specific agro-ecological zones and for households who diversify away from a particular low- productivity crop: teff. These results indicate that the scope of cereal diversity to drive increases in output may be limited. Similar to recent studies of biodiversity—ecosystem function relationships (e.g. Jochum et al., 2020), the results suggest that the composition of diverse systems can be more important than the measured diversity itself. In the case of cereal crops in Ethiopia, differences in the yields of particular cereals in the crop mix explain the diversity effect, rather than diversity alone. Since some combinations of crops add to productivity but others do not, productivity related crop choice may not guarantee in situ conservation of crop-diversity on its own. Alternative conservation solutions may well be needed for that.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, food prices, and food security

COVID-19 has led to a wealth of research examining possible impacts; however, potential impacts to food security have received much less attention. We use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts of COVID-19 using observed changes from 2020 (September) in unemployment, trade, oil prices, and production to inform our model. Estimated GDP and food price changes are then used as inputs into the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model which estimates changes in food consumption, and food gaps in developing countries. Results indicate that the COVID-19 lockdowns lead to a decrease in global GDP of 7.2 per cent, and a decrease in grain prices of 9 per cent. These changes lead to an increase in the number of food-insecure people in 2020 of 211 million (a 27.8 per cent increase). We also perform a sensitivity analysis, providing a lower and upper bound of potential impacts from COVID-19.

Consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for cow housing systems in eight European countries

Free walk housing systems aim to address major animal health issues for dairy cows and support higher animal welfare. The purpose of this study is to estimate consumer acceptance of different housing systems and willingness to pay (WTP) for milk from tie-stall, cubicle, compost bedded, and artificial floor housing systems in addition to attitudes towards animal welfare. Focus groups were held to identify the pertinent concepts for an online quantitative survey conducted in eight European countries. A discrete choice experiment was included for estimating WTP. Consumers are found to care about animal welfare and grazing. Results indicate consumers like the compost bedded system the best followed by the artificial floor system; however, no positive WTP for these systems was found. Consumers seem to find the current labeling rules regarding organic production and grazing sufficiently informative. The results can help producers make more informed investment and marketing decisions regarding cow husbandry.