Niche Shifts From Trees to Fecundity to Recruitment That Determine Species Response to Climate Change

Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change.

Trophic niche shifts and phenotypic trait evolution are largely decoupled in Australasian parrots

Background Trophic shifts from one dietary niche to another have played major roles in reshaping the evolutionary trajectories of a wide range of vertebrate groups, yet their consequences for morphological disparity and species diversity differ among groups. Methods Here, we use phylogenetic comparative methods to examine whether the evolution of nectarivory and other trophic shifts have driven predictable evolutionary pathways in Australasian psittaculid parrots in terms of ecological traits such as body size, beak shape, and dispersal capacity. Results We found no evidence for an ‘early-burst’ scenario of lineage or morphological diversification. The best-fitting models indicate that trait evolution in this group is characterized by abrupt phenotypic shifts (evolutionary jumps), with no sign of multiple phenotypic optima correlating with different trophic strategies. Thus, our results point to the existence of weak directional selection and suggest that lineages may be evolving randomly or slowly toward adaptive peaks they have not yet reached. Conclusions This study adds to a growing body of evidence indicating that the relationship between avian morphology and feeding ecology may be more complex than usually assumed and highlights the importance of adding more flexible models to the macroevolutionary toolbox.

Realised Niche Shifts, Rapid Evolution and Phenotypic Plasticity in Introduced Plants

<p>Recent biological invasions provide a unique opportunity to examine how species may adapt to novel conditions over relatively short time frames. Introduced species may respond to novel environmental conditions in the new range via rapid evolution, phenotypic plasticity, or the rapid evolution of phenotypic plasticity. However, the prevalence of these different mechanisms in introduced species remains unclear. In this thesis, I explore how introduced plant species may adjust their phenotype when introduced to a new range. First, I tested for evidence of phenotypic change through time in key morphological traits (plant height, leaf area, leaf shape, and leaf mass per unit area), using historic herbarium records for 34 plants introduced to Australia and New Zealand. Thirty-two out of 94 trait-species combinations showed evidence for change through time. The rate and direction of trait change was variable across species and the local climate. One possibility is that species introduced to a new range exhibit different trait responses depending on the relative difference in environment between the native and introduced range. To investigate this, I quantified climatic niche shifts in introduced species relative to their native range. I then predicted trait change through time from the magnitude and direction of climate niche shift in a meta-regression. This is the first study to simultaneously assess trait change in multiple introduced species in relation to a shift in their realised niche. Overall, climate niche shifts did not predict trait change through time, suggesting that climate may not be the predominant driver of trait change in plants introduced to Australia and New Zealand. Alternatively, the combined uncertainty and the mismatch in spatial scales that may arise when combining these two methods could mask any underlying patterns in plant trait responses to the new environment. It has been hypothesised that introduced species may respond to a sudden change in environment, by rapidly selecting for an increase in phenotypic plasticity. I tested for a difference in phenotypic plasticity between the native and introduced ranges of a beach daisy, Arctotheca populifolia. Contrary to my expectations, A. populifolia has shown a loss of phenotypic plasticity in as little as 80 years since its introduction to Australia. When using a meta-analysis to test for an overall difference in plasticity across multiple traits, I found that the current practice of calculating an effect size of an effect size (Hedges’ d) can lead to misleading results. I demonstrate how this issue arises when calculating a difference in Hedges’ d between two populations with different standard deviations. I propose an alternative way to calculate Hedges’ d to give a more accurate reflection of the difference in plasticity between ranges. Finally, I combine different lines of evidence from the previous chapters in a case study to explore how A. populifolia has changed since its introduction to Australia, and examine any discrepancies between the results. A glasshouse experiment revealed distinct trait differences between native and introduced populations of A. populifolia, which were not reflected in trait change through time inferred from herbarium specimens. Additionally, measured trait differences between ranges in the glasshouse experiment better reflected a niche shift into wetter climate, than the predicted trait change through time from herbarium specimens. This suggests that trait differences determined in glasshouse or common garden experiments, may be a more suitable approach to assess trait change in relation to a realised niche shift than using herbarium specimens.</p>

Realised Niche Shifts, Rapid Evolution and Phenotypic Plasticity in Introduced Plants

<p>Recent biological invasions provide a unique opportunity to examine how species may adapt to novel conditions over relatively short time frames. Introduced species may respond to novel environmental conditions in the new range via rapid evolution, phenotypic plasticity, or the rapid evolution of phenotypic plasticity. However, the prevalence of these different mechanisms in introduced species remains unclear. In this thesis, I explore how introduced plant species may adjust their phenotype when introduced to a new range. First, I tested for evidence of phenotypic change through time in key morphological traits (plant height, leaf area, leaf shape, and leaf mass per unit area), using historic herbarium records for 34 plants introduced to Australia and New Zealand. Thirty-two out of 94 trait-species combinations showed evidence for change through time. The rate and direction of trait change was variable across species and the local climate. One possibility is that species introduced to a new range exhibit different trait responses depending on the relative difference in environment between the native and introduced range. To investigate this, I quantified climatic niche shifts in introduced species relative to their native range. I then predicted trait change through time from the magnitude and direction of climate niche shift in a meta-regression. This is the first study to simultaneously assess trait change in multiple introduced species in relation to a shift in their realised niche. Overall, climate niche shifts did not predict trait change through time, suggesting that climate may not be the predominant driver of trait change in plants introduced to Australia and New Zealand. Alternatively, the combined uncertainty and the mismatch in spatial scales that may arise when combining these two methods could mask any underlying patterns in plant trait responses to the new environment. It has been hypothesised that introduced species may respond to a sudden change in environment, by rapidly selecting for an increase in phenotypic plasticity. I tested for a difference in phenotypic plasticity between the native and introduced ranges of a beach daisy, Arctotheca populifolia. Contrary to my expectations, A. populifolia has shown a loss of phenotypic plasticity in as little as 80 years since its introduction to Australia. When using a meta-analysis to test for an overall difference in plasticity across multiple traits, I found that the current practice of calculating an effect size of an effect size (Hedges’ d) can lead to misleading results. I demonstrate how this issue arises when calculating a difference in Hedges’ d between two populations with different standard deviations. I propose an alternative way to calculate Hedges’ d to give a more accurate reflection of the difference in plasticity between ranges. Finally, I combine different lines of evidence from the previous chapters in a case study to explore how A. populifolia has changed since its introduction to Australia, and examine any discrepancies between the results. A glasshouse experiment revealed distinct trait differences between native and introduced populations of A. populifolia, which were not reflected in trait change through time inferred from herbarium specimens. Additionally, measured trait differences between ranges in the glasshouse experiment better reflected a niche shift into wetter climate, than the predicted trait change through time from herbarium specimens. This suggests that trait differences determined in glasshouse or common garden experiments, may be a more suitable approach to assess trait change in relation to a realised niche shift than using herbarium specimens.</p>

Global cultivation of wheat crops induces considerable shifts in the range and niche of species relative to their wild progenitors

Species’ range and niche play key roles in understanding ecological and biogeographical patterns, especially in projecting global biotic homogenization and potential distribution patterns of species under global change scenarios. However, few studies have investigated the ability of crop cultivation to influence potential range sizes and niche shifts of species. Wheat and its wild progenitors share the same origin and evolutionary history, and thus provide an excellent system to explore this topic. Using ensembled ecological niche models and niche dynamic models, we studied the potential range sizes of wheat and its wild progenitors, as well as their niche dynamics. Our results showed that wheat had larger range size and niche breadth than its wild progenitors, suggesting that wheat cultivation is a more powerful driver of range and niche expansion than natural niche evolution. Additionally, wheat and its wild progenitors occupied different niche positions, and the former did not conserve the niches inherited from the latter, implying that wheat cultivation considerably induces niche shifts. The niche dynamics between wheat and its wild progenitors were not only closely associated with cultivation but were also modified by the niche conservatism of its wild progenitors. In contrast to most invasive plants, wheat, as a global staple crop species, did not conserve the niche space inherited from its wild progenitors, suggesting that compared with most plant invasions, cultivation may have a stronger effect on niche shifts. Therefore, global niche shifts induced by crop cultivation need much more attention, though the underlying mechanisms require further study.

The role of the gut microbiota in the dietary niche expansion of fishing bats

Background Due to its central role in animal nutrition, the gut microbiota is likely a relevant factor shaping dietary niche shifts. We analysed both the impact and contribution of the gut microbiota to the dietary niche expansion of the only four bat species that have incorporated fish into their primarily arthropodophage diet. Results We first compared the taxonomic and functional features of the gut microbiota of the four piscivorous bats to that of 11 strictly arthropodophagous species using 16S rRNA targeted amplicon sequencing. Second, we increased the resolution of our analyses for one of the piscivorous bat species, namely Myotis capaccinii, and analysed multiple populations combining targeted approaches with shotgun sequencing. To better understand the origin of gut microorganisms, we also analysed the gut microbiota of their fish prey (Gambusia holbrooki). Our analyses showed that piscivorous bats carry a characteristic gut microbiota that differs from that of their strict arthropodophagous counterparts, in which the most relevant bacteria have been directly acquired from their fish prey. This characteristic microbiota exhibits enrichment of genes involved in vitamin biosynthesis, as well as complex carbohydrate and lipid metabolism, likely providing their hosts with an enhanced capacity to metabolise the glycosphingolipids and long-chain fatty acids that are particularly abundant in fish. Conclusions Our results depict the gut microbiota as a relevant element in facilitating the dietary transition from arthropodophagy to piscivory.