Spatial Distribution of Chesapeake Bay Riparian Hemlock Forests Threatened by Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

Landscape-scale maps of tree species densities are important tools for managing ecosystems threatened by forest pests. Eastern hemlock dominates riparian forests throughout its range. As a conifer in a deciduous landscape, hemlock plays an ecohydrological role, especially when other species are dormant. The nonnative, hemlock woolly adelgid has caused widespread hemlock decline and mortality. We used two existing basal area raster layers first to identify Chesapeake Bay subwatersheds with ≥6 percent hemlock basal area and second to quantify hemlock basal area densities within fixed-width riparian buffers of 50 m, 100 m, 250 m, and 500 m. Hemlock densities were higher in riparian zones compared with entire subwatersheds. In five subwatersheds, 50 m and 100 m zones had higher percentages of pixels with ≥25 percent hemlock basal area. We produced maps identifying hemlock riparian densities in the Pine Creek Watershed, which managers can use to prioritize sites for supplemental conifer planting under anticipated hemlock decline. Study Implications: Forest inventory and satellite data were used to map riparian hemlock stands in the Pine Creek Watershed (Pennsylvania). Pine Creek is a subwatershed of the Chesapeake Bay and an important tributary of West Branch Susquehanna River. Pine Creek headwaters are a brook trout refuge, and hemlock shading along streams stabilizes water temperature. These fisheries provide recreational value and economic support to local communities. Hemlock woolly adelgid, an invasive insect, has recently entered the watershed and will cause hemlock decline and mortality. Our maps assist the Pine Creek Watershed Council in identifying riparian areas for supplemental planting of alternative conifer seedlings.

Monitoring Forest Infestation and Fire Disturbance in the Southern Appalachian Using a Time Series Analysis of Landsat Imagery

The southern Appalachian forests have been threatened by several large-scale disturbances, such as wildfire and infestation, which alter the forest ecosystem structures and functions. Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand, HWA) is a non-native pest that causes widespread foliar damage and eventual mortality, resulting in irreversible tree decline in eastern (Tsuga canadensis) and Carolina (T. caroliniana) hemlocks throughout the eastern United States. It is important to monitor the extent and severity of these disturbances over space and time to better understand their implications in the biogeochemical cycles of forest landscapes. Using all available Landsat images, we investigate and compare the performance of Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT)-based indices, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Disturbance Index (DI) in capturing the spectral-temporal trajectory of both abrupt and gradual forest disturbances (e.g., fire and hemlock decline). For each Landsat pixel, the temporal trajectories of these indices were fitted into a time series model, separating the inter-annual disturbance patterns (low frequency) and seasonal phenology (high frequency) signals. We estimated the temporal dynamics of disturbances based on the residuals between the observed and predicted values of the model, investigated the performance of all the indices in capturing the hemlock decline intensity, and further validated the results with the number of individual dead hemlocks identified from high-resolution aerial images. Our results suggested that the overall performance of NDVI, followed by TCT wetness, was most accurate in detecting both the disturbance timing and hemlock decline intensity, explaining over 90% of the variability in the number of dead hemlocks. Despite the overall good performance of TCT wetness in characterizing the disturbance regime, our analysis showed that this index has some limitations in characterizing disturbances due to its recovery patterns following infestation.

An invasive insect, hemlock woolly adelgid, indirectly impacts Louisiana Waterthrush nest site selection and nest survival in the southern Appalachians

Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is declining throughout the eastern United States due to hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), an invasive insect from Asia. In the southern Appalachians, hemlock is concentrated in moist ravines and its decline threatens riparian ecosystems. Previous research on this invasion has focused on adelgid control and how hemlock decline affects community composition or forest processes; few studies have evaluated the consequences for demography of obligate riparian species. The Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla) is an obligate riparian species that could be sensitive to hemlock condition in this region, but how individuals respond to decline is currently unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we leveraged recent adelgid treatment efforts in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to evaluate the relationship(s) between hemlock decline and waterthrush habitat selection (foraging and nest site) and vital rates (nest and adult survival). We found that hemlock decline was unrelated to foraging habitat selection and apparent adult survival, but was related to nest site selection through an interaction with percent ground cover of exposed live tree roots: birds selected for nest sites in areas with more exposed live roots but only when hemlock was in poor condition. Nest survival was lower in areas where deciduous species (vs. evergreen species) dominated the understory, suggesting that adelgid invasion could indirectly impact waterthrush fitness depending on how vegetative succession proceeds following hemlock decline. Our results suggest that the short-term consequences of adelgid invasion on this riparian avian species are minimal in this area, but these relationships are likely dynamic and dependent on local habitat features and the predator community response to hemlock decline.

When a foundation crumbles: forecasting forest community dynamics following the decline of the foundation speciesTsuga canadensis

In the forests of northeastern North America, invasive insects and pathogens are causing major declines in some tree species and a subsequent reorganization of associated forest communities. Using observations and experiments to investigate the consequences of such declines are hampered because trees are long-lived. Simulation models can provide a means to forecast possible futures based on different scenarios of tree species decline, death, and removal. Such modeling is particularly urgent for species such as eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), a foundation species in many northeast forest regions that is declining due to the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). Here, we used an individual-based forest simulator, SORTIE-ND, to forecast changes in forest communities in central Massachusetts over the next 200 years under a range of scenarios: a no-adelgid, status-quo scenario; partial resistance of hemlock to the adelgid; adelgid irruption and total hemlock decline over 25 years, adelgid irruption and salvage logging of hemlock trees; and two scenarios of preemptive logging of hemlock and hemlock/white pine.We applied the model to six study plots comprising a range of initial species mixtures, abundances, and levels of hemlock dominance. Simulations indicated that eastern white pine, and to a lesser extent black birch and American beech, would gain most in relative abundance and basal area following hemlock decline. The relative dominance of these species depended on initial conditions and the amount of hemlock mortality, and their combined effect on neighborhood-scale community dynamics. Simulated outcomes were little different whether hemlock died out gradually due to the adelgid or disappeared rapidly following logging. However, if eastern hemlock were to become partially resistant to the adelgid, hemlock would be able to retain its dominance despite substantial losses of basal area. Our modeling highlights the complexities associated with secondary forest succession due to ongoing hemlock decline and loss. We emphasize the need both for a precautionary approach in deciding between management intervention or simply doing nothing in these declining hemlock forests, and for clear aims and understanding regarding desired community- and ecosystem-level outcomes.