Projecting Spatial Patterns of Extreme Heat Hazard to Human Health under SRES B2 Scenario

Higher temperature will have serious effects on human health in the context of global warming. Projection of changes in extreme heat hazard is critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human health. Using PRECIS simulations, two indices – hot days and heat-wave days – were selected to project the spatial patterns of extreme heat hazard for the baseline period (1961–1990) and future (2011–2040) over China under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the annual hot days would increase from 10.2 days to 17.3 days, and the annual heat-wave days from 11.5 days to 22.6 days. The extreme heat hazard in most areas of the country would become higher to some extent except for Tibetan Plateau, and the area percentage of extreme heat hazard grade 5 would extend from 2.3% to 13.7%.