Estudo sobre a Hipótese de Fragilidade Financeira de Hyman Minsky Aplicada ao Estado de Minas Gerais no Período 2008-2018

O objetivo desse trabalho foi evidenciar as posições de financiamento do estado de Minas Gerais no período de 2008 a 2018. Conforme a Hipótese de Fragilidade Financeira (HFF) apresentada por Minsky, a forma como são previstos e realizados fluxos futuros de receitas esperadas e em contraponto as despesas, revela como resultado posições financeiras de suficiência, moderada restrição ou completa insuficiência, nomeadas por hedge, especulativa e ponzi, respectivamente. Os estudos sobre a HFF também são adaptáveis para testar a fragilidade das finanças públicas, isto é, a capacidade de um governo de sustentar suas dívidas e demais despesas. A base de dados foi o Balanço Orçamentário. Foi apurada posição de financiamento ponzi para o estado nos anos de 2011 a 2017, especulativa para os anos de 2008 a 2010 e 2018. Considera-se pertinente a utilização dos estudos sobre a Hipótese de Fragilidade Financeira quando aplicados ao setor público, podendo ser instrumento de análises complementares sobre a fragilidade financeira de entes governamentais, reforçando assim seu conteúdo teórico e empírico.

In the current stream

While the previous chapter highlighted the resurgence of Schumpeter’s concept of money in economic theory, this chapter focuses on three examples from recent economic history in which the interdependence of finance and innovation invokes a deliberate Schumpeterian interpretation. The first example is about the striking rise of modern venture capital in Schumpeter’s immediate geographical and intellectual environment during his years at Harvard, to which he contributed a consistent intellectual frame (also through his personal ties with people like David Rockefeller, Frank Taussig, or George Doriot). The second example addresses the recurrent instances of financial crises, in particular the Great Recession of 2008-09, and invokes a Schumpeterian interpretation mainly via the instability theorem of his student Hyman Minsky. Finally, we turn to the stream of innovations that relate to the increasing digitalisation of money ranging from cryptocoins to central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

The vision sustained

This chapter demonstrates how Schumpeter’s monetary theory of economic development has endured and stood the test of time. It first addresses the later monetary theory of John Hicks and early representatives of the dissenting view that money matters to growth. Among these, his students James Tobin and Hyman Minsky carried important elements of his vision into the emerging New Keynesian and Post-Keynesian traditions. From the 1970s onwards, the growing literature on financial frictions substantiated his emphasis on imperfect markets by exact theoretical explanations. These allowed for the further integration of finance into Schumpeterian growth models, which have become a forceful strand of the macroeconomic mainstream since the beginning of the 1990s. Similarly, they provide the theoretical underpinning for scripting the nexus of finance and growth in the more recent waves of agent-based models. Finally, the chapter discusses the empirical research on the nexus between finance and growth.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Case of Private Non-Financial Firms in South Korea

The paper aims to test the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) proposed by Hyman Minsky by looking at the case of private non-financial firms in South Korea. The FIH offers analytical tools to explore how an economy endogenously becomes financially fragile and is therefore prone to crises. Using this toolkit and a sample of 102 leading South Korean nonfinancial private companies, we analyze how their financing regimes changed between 2005 and 2019. We applied five different classification criteria developed over the past few years within the framework of the FIH. The paper brought to light two time periods when the sector of private non-financial firms in South Korea became more financially fragile. The first period is the few years before and during the Great Recession. The second period is the few years preceding 2019, the last year of the analyzed period. The conclusion is made that by the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the South Korean economy was vulnerable to crisis shocks. Therefore, there is a need for macroeconomic policies that will saturate the firm sector with funds. Otherwise, the crisis could turn into an economic collapse. Our findings also show the applicability of the FIH to the case of South Korean economy.

A Minsky-Levy-Kalecki Model

The authors add the monetary insights of Hyman Minsky to the ‘real' Kalecki-Levy equation. The latter is embedded in the economics of Keynes and the former is expanded in the spirit of Minsky. They present their structural connections in a four-quadrant diagram as well as within a stock-flow-consistent model. The motivation arises from history and the revitalisation of the real bills doctrine. Accordingly, they make the case for the productive monetary emissions of a central bank acting in concert with the community of commercial banks. They define money as the emission of credit in the ‘first moment' of the circuit. It is simultaneously the wage bill. Workers will consume basics and are free to prefer liquidity in the form of bank deposits. The latter they label cash or currency and a firewall separates it from money. The objective is the increase in output and employment called upon by the milieu in all countries of the world in which the 'dark forces' of uncertainty and pessimism have taken over. The policy stance is embellished by the introduction of central bank digital money.

Minsky: moeda, restrição de sobrevivência e hierarquia do sistema monetário globalizado

Resumo Hyman Minsky é, em geral, conhecido por sua teoria da instabilidade financeira. Na sua visão, as crises no sistema capitalista moderno têm origem endógena, por causa da tendência de empresas e bancos a adotarem um comportamento cada vez mais especulativo, na medida em que a estabilidade econômica se prolonga. Outros conceitos originais e igualmente relevantes desenvolvidos por Minsky são menos tratados pela literatura, inclusive pós-keynesiana. É o caso da “restrição de sobrevivência”. Esse texto pretende cobrir essa lacuna, apresentando e discutindo a relevância da restrição de sobrevivência do ponto de vista da teoria da moeda e da conformação hierarquizada que o sistema monetário globalizado tomou a partir da Crise de 2008.

INEFFICIENT BUBBLES AND EFFICIENT DRAWDOWNS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

At odds with the common “rational expectations” framework for bubbles, economists like Hyman Minsky, Charles Kindleberger and Robert Shiller have documented that irrational behavior, ambiguous information or certain limits to arbitrage are essential drivers for bubble phenomena and financial crises. Following this understanding that asset price bubbles are generated by market failures, we present a framework for explosive semimartingales that is based on the antagonistic combination of (i) an excessive, unstable pre-crash process and (ii) a drawdown starting at some random time. This unifying framework allows one to accommodate and compare many discrete and continuous time bubble models in the literature that feature such market inefficiencies. Moreover, it significantly extends the range of feasible asset price processes during times of financial speculation and frenzy and provides a strong theoretical background for future model design in financial and risk management problem settings. This conception of bubbles also allows us to elucidate the status of rational expectation bubbles, which, by design, suffer from the paradox that a rational market should not allow for misvaluation. While the discrete time case has been extensively discussed in the literature and is most criticized for its failure to comply with rational expectations equilibria, we argue that this carries over to the finite time “strict local martingale”-approach to bubbles.

Financial crises and the perils for the world economy

In this paper, we wish to address the issue of financial crises. We focus on the causes and implications for the world economy and financial stability. For this reason, we attempt to identify the relative phenomena that encourage the emergence of financial crises. The amplification of the financial sector at the international level and the high degree of financial integration render the debate of financial crises solemnly significant. The world economy has become unstable and vulnerable to the emer- gence of unanticipated financial events. Such events are not simply limited to a large bank default but also to the inability of a multinational firm or an agent to validate their debts. Thus, we mainly emphasize the insights of Hyman Minsky into the global financial crisis, who suggested that the flaws of the current dominant financial status would eventually entail instability and probably lead to crises with contagion effects at the international level. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to indi- cate that the perils of financial crises for the global economy must be perceptible and considerable ex ante in order to be successfully confronted.