The Predictability of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Given the ability of recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to disturb the amplitude of Rossby waves on the extratropical jet, this study investigates whether the predictability of the synoptic-scale flow is significantly modified from climatology downstream from and after TC recurvature events. Predictability is evaluated as the standard deviation of isentropic potential vorticity among a 50-member ensemble and is compared to a model climatology. It is shown that forecast uncertainty is dependent upon the relative location of the nearest trough at the time of recurvature and the relative zonal speed between the aforementioned trough and the TC in the 72 hours after recurvature. Predictability is significantly degraded when recurvature occurs downstream of a trough; the elevated uncertainty subsequently propagates downstream along with the trough axis. Furthermore, this study evaluates predictability in spectral space in order to distinguish between uncertainty tied to the exact location of troughs and ridges and uncertainty in Rossby wave amplitude. The wavelet analysis demonstrates that the increase in uncertainty is not solely limited to the trough location, as there is also significantly elevated uncertainty in the Rossby wave amplitude that originates from the upstream trough and spans across downstream troughs and ridges. Uncertainty is also increased near the recurvature longitude in the subset of cases in which the Rossby wave train propagates zonally slower than the TC after recurvature, which is hypothesized to be linked to baroclinic growth processes.

Static Stability Associated with Southern Hemisphere Blocking Onsets

<p>The horizontal and temporal variation of static stability prior to blocking onset is characterized through composite analysis of blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. It is found that a local minimum of static stability in the upper troposphere and on the tropopause is achieved over the block-onset region when blocking onset takes place. From the perspective of isentropic potential vorticity, blocking onset is accompanied by extratropical tropopause elevation and a local low isentropic potential vorticity anomaly that is formed right under the elevated tropopause. This low isentropic potential vorticity anomaly is coincident with a local minimum of static stability over the block-onset region. In addition, based on static stability budget analysis, it revealed that the decrease of static stability in the upper troposphere and on the tropopuase prior to blocking onset is attributable to horizontal advection of low static stability from subtropics to midlatitude as well as the stretching effect associated with upper-level convergence, with the horizontal advection forcing being the primary contributor. On the other hand, the vertical advection of static stability tends to oppose the decreasing static stability through advecting more stable air downward such that it stabilizes the local air over the block-onset region. Furthermore, the indirect and direct effect of latent heat to the local change of static stability over the block-onset region are also discussed, respectively.</p>

A Climatology of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Previous case studies have noted a significant extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), which is often linked to extreme weather events downstream. This study examines the modification of Rossby waves on the extratropical jet in response to recurving Atlantic TCs from a climatological perspective. Changes in amplitude and location of Rossby waves are identified using a wavelet decomposition technique on isentropic potential vorticity. The climatology demonstrates that recurving Atlantic TC events are capable of modifying the amplitude of the extratropical flow. Though the majority of TCs did not produce a significant, systematic modification of the extratropical flow amplitude, a subset of events were associated with a period of significant Rossby wave deamplification occurring from the time of recurvature to 48 h after recurvature, followed by a return of the Rossby wave power beginning around 96 h after recurvature. The characteristics of the TCs were not significantly associated with the resulting extratropical flow modification—a result consistent with previous western North Pacific climatologies. The nature of the extratropical flow response is most strongly tied to the average translation speed of the TC relative to the Rossby wave over the 72 h following recurvature. This study highlights the importance of investigating the extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic TCs with regards to predictability.

An Updated Analysis of Northern Hemisphere Submonthly Retrograde Waves

This study performs an updated analysis of Northern Hemisphere retrograde disturbances that were first identified by classical observational studies as one of the dominating coherent structures in the higher latitudes on the submonthly time scale. Analyzing 8–30-day bandpass-filtered data based on reanalysis, a set of criteria on the phase and amplitude of zonal wave-1 Fourier coefficients of geopotential height anomalies at 250 mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) and 60°N are used to identify strong retrograde-wave events in the spirit of Madden and Speth. The new catalog of retrograde-wave events from 1979 to 2017 is used to extract basic statistics and structures of retrograde waves across all major events. The results broadly agree with those reported in the classical observational studies, reaffirming the robustness of the phenomenon. The new catalog can be used to aid further studies on the mechanisms and predictability of retrograde waves. As an example, an analysis of isentropic potential vorticity over the Pacific sector for selected retrograde-wave events reveals the common occurrence of an extrusion of low-PV air into the higher latitudes, followed by a westward shift of the low-PV patch and vortex shedding. Future directions of research surrounding the retrograde-wave phenomenon are discussed.

Determining the Extratropical Transition Onset and Completion Times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) Using Four Methods

Four methods for determining the extratropical transition (ET) onset and completion times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) were compared using four numerically analyzed datasets. The open-wave and scalar frontogenesis parameter methods failed to smoothly and consistently determine the ET completion from the four data sources, because some dependent factors associated with these two methods significantly impacted the results. Although the cyclone phase space technique succeeded in determining the ET onset and completion times, the ET onset and completion times of Yagi identified by this method exhibited a large distinction across the datasets, agreeing with prior studies. The isentropic potential vorticity method was also able to identify the ET onset times of both Mindulle and Yagi using all the datasets, whereas the ET onset time of Yagi determined by such a method differed markedly from that by the cyclone phase space technique, which may create forecast uncertainty.

Evolution of African Easterly Waves in Potential Vorticity Fields

The evolution of African easterly waves (AEWs) leading to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic during 2000–08 is examined from isentropic potential vorticity (PV) and Lagrangian streamline perspectives. Tropical cyclone formation is commonly preceded by axisymmetrization of PV, scale contraction of the wave, and formation of a closed circulation within the wave. In these cases, PV associated with the synoptic-scale wave is irreversibly deformed and subsumed within the developing vortex. Less commonly, filamentation of the PV leads to separation and independent propagation of the wave and the TC vortex. In an example presented here, the remnant wave with a closed circulation persisted for several days after separation from the TC. A second TC did not result, consistent with several past studies that show that a midtropospheric closed gyre is not sufficient for TC genesis. Sometimes, an AEW and a weak TC remain coupled for a few days, followed by the dissipation of the TC and the continued propagation of the wave. Merger of tropical and extratropical PV anomalies is also often observed and likely helps maintain some waves. The results of this study are broadly consistent with recent Lagrangian analyses of AEW evolution during TC genesis.