The Predictability of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison Lynn Brannan ◽  
Jeffrey M. Chagnon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Amplitude ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Spectral Space ◽  
Relative Location ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Flow Response ◽  
Isentropic Potential Vorticity ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

AbstractGiven the ability of recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to disturb the amplitude of Rossby waves on the extratropical jet, this study investigates whether the predictability of the synoptic-scale flow is significantly modified from climatology downstream from and after TC recurvature events. Predictability is evaluated as the standard deviation of isentropic potential vorticity among a 50-member ensemble and is compared to a model climatology. It is shown that forecast uncertainty is dependent upon the relative location of the nearest trough at the time of recurvature and the relative zonal speed between the aforementioned trough and the TC in the 72 hours after recurvature. Predictability is significantly degraded when recurvature occurs downstream of a trough; the elevated uncertainty subsequently propagates downstream along with the trough axis. Furthermore, this study evaluates predictability in spectral space in order to distinguish between uncertainty tied to the exact location of troughs and ridges and uncertainty in Rossby wave amplitude. The wavelet analysis demonstrates that the increase in uncertainty is not solely limited to the trough location, as there is also significantly elevated uncertainty in the Rossby wave amplitude that originates from the upstream trough and spans across downstream troughs and ridges. Uncertainty is also increased near the recurvature longitude in the subset of cases in which the Rossby wave train propagates zonally slower than the TC after recurvature, which is hypothesized to be linked to baroclinic growth processes.

A Climatology of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (2) ◽  
pp. 541-558
Author(s):  
Allison Lynn Brannan ◽  
Jeffrey M. Chagnon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wavelet Decomposition ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Flow Modification ◽  
Flow Response ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Isentropic Potential Vorticity

Abstract Previous case studies have noted a significant extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), which is often linked to extreme weather events downstream. This study examines the modification of Rossby waves on the extratropical jet in response to recurving Atlantic TCs from a climatological perspective. Changes in amplitude and location of Rossby waves are identified using a wavelet decomposition technique on isentropic potential vorticity. The climatology demonstrates that recurving Atlantic TC events are capable of modifying the amplitude of the extratropical flow. Though the majority of TCs did not produce a significant, systematic modification of the extratropical flow amplitude, a subset of events were associated with a period of significant Rossby wave deamplification occurring from the time of recurvature to 48 h after recurvature, followed by a return of the Rossby wave power beginning around 96 h after recurvature. The characteristics of the TCs were not significantly associated with the resulting extratropical flow modification—a result consistent with previous western North Pacific climatologies. The nature of the extratropical flow response is most strongly tied to the average translation speed of the TC relative to the Rossby wave over the 72 h following recurvature. This study highlights the importance of investigating the extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic TCs with regards to predictability.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of Intraseasonal Amplification of the Cold Siberian High

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 4423-4440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koutarou Takaya ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Thermal Anomalies ◽  
Siberian High ◽  
Vertical Coupling ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the Siberian high are investigated on the basis of composite anomaly evolution for its strongest events at each of the grid points over Siberia. At each location, the amplification of the surface high is associated with formation of a blocking ridge in the upper troposphere. Over central and western Siberia, what may be called “wave-train (Atlantic-origin)” type is common, where a blocking ridge forms as a component of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train propagating across the Eurasian continent. A cold air outbreak follows once anomalous surface cold air reaches the northeastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau. It is found through the potential vorticity (PV) inversion technique that interaction between the upper-level stationary Rossby wave train and preexisting surface cold anomalies is essential for the strong amplification of the surface high. Upper-level PV anomalies associated with the wave train reinforce the cold anticyclonic anomalies at the surface by inducing anomalous cold advection that counteracts the tendency of the thermal anomalies themselves to migrate eastward as surface thermal Rossby waves. The surface cold anomalies thus intensified, in turn, act to induce anomalous vorticity advection aloft that reinforces the blocking ridge and cyclonic anomalies downstream of it that constitute the propagating wave train. The baroclinic development of the anomalies through this vertical coupling is manifested as a significant upward flux of wave activity emanating from the surface cold anomalies, which may be interpreted as dissipative destabilization of the incoming external Rossby waves.

scholarly journals Diversity of the Global Teleconnections Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-414
Author(s):  
Guosen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Baroclinic Model ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
Upper Level

AbstractA recent study has revealed that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter exhibits diverse propagation patterns that consist of four archetypes: standing MJO, jumping MJO, slow eastward propagating MJO, and fast eastward propagating MJO. This study has explored the diversity of teleconnection associated with these four MJO groups. The results reveal that each MJO group corresponds to distinct global teleconnections, manifested as diverse upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train patterns. Overall, the teleconnections in the fast and slow MJO are similar to those in the canonical MJO constructed by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, while the teleconnections in the jumping and standing MJO generally lose similarities to those in the canonical MJO. The causes of this diversity are investigated using a linearized potential vorticity equation. The various MJO tropical heating patterns in different MJO groups are the main cause of the diverse MJO teleconnections, as they induce assorted upper-level divergent flows that act as Rossby-wave sources through advecting the background potential vorticity. The variation of the Asian jet could affect the teleconnections over the Pacific jet exit region, but it plays an insignificant role in causing the diversity of global teleconnections. The numerical investigation with a linear baroclinic model shows that the teleconnections can be interpreted as linear responses to the MJO’s diabatic heating to various degrees for different MJO groups, with the fast and slow MJO having higher linear skill than the jumping and standing MJO. The results have broad implications in the MJO’s tropical–extratropical interactions and the associated impacts on global weather and climate.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Influences on the MJO-Induced Rossby Wave Train: Effects on Intraseasonal Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lon L. Hood ◽  
Malori A. Redman ◽  
Wes L. Johnson ◽  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

AbstractThe tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites a northward propagating Rossby wave train that largely determines the extratropical surface weather consequences of the MJO. Previous work has demonstrated a significant influence of the tropospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the characteristics of this wave train. Here, composite analyses of ERA-Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during the extended northern winter season are performed to investigate the additional role of stratospheric forcings [the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-yr solar cycle] in modifying the wave train and its consequences. MJO phase composites of 20–100-day filtered data for the two QBO phases show that, similar to the cool phase of ENSO, the easterly phase of the QBO (QBOE) produces a stronger wave train and associated modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. In particular, during MJO phases 5–7, positive SLP and negative SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector are enhanced during QBOE relative to the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW). The opposite occurs during the earliest MJO phases. SAT anomalies over eastern North America are also more strongly modulated during QBOE. Although less certain because of the short data record, there is some evidence that the minimum phase of the solar cycle (SMIN) produces a similar increased modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. The strongest modulations of SLP and SAT anomalies are produced when two or more of the forcings are superposed (e.g., QBOE/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, etc.).

scholarly journals Rossby Wave Propagation from the Arctic into the Midlatitudes: Does It Arise from In Situ Latent Heating or a Trans-Arctic Wave Train?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3619-3633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Sukyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Rossby Wave Propagation ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
In Situ Generation

AbstractThe relationship between latent heating over the Greenland, Barents, and Kara Seas (GBKS hereafter) and Rossby wave propagation between the Arctic and midlatitudes is investigated using global reanalysis data. Latent heating is the focus because it is the most likely source of Rossby wave activity over the Arctic Ocean. Given that the Rossby wave time scale is on the order of several days, the analysis is carried out using a daily latent heating index that resembles the interdecadal latent heating trend during the winter season. The results from regression calculations find a trans-Arctic Rossby wave train that propagates from the subtropics, through the midlatitudes, into the Arctic, and then back into midlatitudes over a period of about 10 days. Upon entering the GBKS, this wave train transports moisture into the region, resulting in anomalous latent heat release. At high latitudes, the overlapping of a negative latent heating anomaly with an anomalous high is consistent with anomalous latent heat release fueling the Rossby wave train before it propagates back into the midlatitudes. This implies that the Rossby wave propagation from the Arctic into the midlatitudes arises from trans-Arctic wave propagation rather than from in situ generation. The method used indicates the variance of the trans-Arctic wave train, but not in situ generation, and implies that the variance of the former is greater than that of latter. Furthermore, GBKS sea ice concentration regression against the latent heating index shows the largest negative value six days afterward, indicating that sea ice loss contributes little to the latent heating.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Rossby Wave Energy Dispersion of a Preexisting Typhoon. Part I: Satellite Data Analyses*

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1377-1389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Li ◽  
Bing Fu
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Energy Dispersion ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Wave Trains ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

Abstract The structure and evolution characteristics of Rossby wave trains induced by tropical cyclone (TC) energy dispersion are revealed based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Among 34 cyclogenesis cases analyzed in the western North Pacific during 2000–01 typhoon seasons, six cases are associated with the Rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting TC. The wave trains are oriented in a northwest–southeast direction, with alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity circulation. A typical wavelength of the wave train is about 2500 km. The TC genesis is observed in the cyclonic circulation region of the wave train, possibly through a scale contraction process. The satellite data analyses reveal that not all TCs have a Rossby wave train in their wakes. The occurrence of the Rossby wave train depends to a certain extent on the TC intensity and the background flow. Whether or not a Rossby wave train can finally lead to cyclogenesis depends on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions related to both the change of the seasonal mean state and the phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Stronger low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity, weaker vertical shear, and greater midtropospheric moisture are among the favorable large-scale conditions. The rebuilding process of a conditional unstable stratification is important in regulating the frequency of TC genesis.

Evolution of African Easterly Waves in Potential Vorticity Fields

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (11) ◽  
pp. 3634-3652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryce Tyner ◽  
Anantha Aiyyer
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Closed Circulation ◽  
Isentropic Potential Vorticity

Abstract The evolution of African easterly waves (AEWs) leading to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic during 2000–08 is examined from isentropic potential vorticity (PV) and Lagrangian streamline perspectives. Tropical cyclone formation is commonly preceded by axisymmetrization of PV, scale contraction of the wave, and formation of a closed circulation within the wave. In these cases, PV associated with the synoptic-scale wave is irreversibly deformed and subsumed within the developing vortex. Less commonly, filamentation of the PV leads to separation and independent propagation of the wave and the TC vortex. In an example presented here, the remnant wave with a closed circulation persisted for several days after separation from the TC. A second TC did not result, consistent with several past studies that show that a midtropospheric closed gyre is not sufficient for TC genesis. Sometimes, an AEW and a weak TC remain coupled for a few days, followed by the dissipation of the TC and the continued propagation of the wave. Merger of tropical and extratropical PV anomalies is also often observed and likely helps maintain some waves. The results of this study are broadly consistent with recent Lagrangian analyses of AEW evolution during TC genesis.

scholarly journals Multi-model assessment of the late-winter stratospheric response to El Niño and La Niña

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Mezzina ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Ileana Bladé ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Polar Cap ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

AbstractThe impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January–March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event, with symmetric patterns for El Niño and La Niña. The well-known temperature perturbation in the lower stratosphere during El Niño is captured by two models, in which the anomalous warming at polar latitudes is accompanied by a positive geopotential height anomaly that extends over the polar cap. In the third model, which shows a lack of temperature anomalies over the pole, the anomalous anticyclone is confined over Canada and does not expand to the polar cap. This anomalous center of action emerges from the large-scale tropospheric Rossby wave train forced by ENSO, and shrinking/stretching around the polar vortex is invoked to link it to the temperature response. No disagreement across models is found in the lower stratosphere for La Niña, whose teleconnection is opposite in sign but weaker. In the middle-upper stratosphere (above 50 hPa) the geopotential height anomalies project on a wavenumber-1 (WN1) pattern for both El Niño and, more weakly, La Niña, and show a westward tilt with height up to the stratopause. It is suggested that this WN1 pattern arises from the high-latitude lower-stratospheric anomalies, and that the ENSO teleconnection to the polar stratosphere can be interpreted in terms of upward propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train and quasi-geostrophic balance, instead of wave breaking.

The Northeast China Persistent Drought in Spring-Summer of 2017: Joint Roles of Teleconnection and Land-atmosphere Coupling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
dingwen zeng ◽  
xing yuan
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Coupling Index ◽  
Persistent Drought ◽  
Dry Coupling ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

<p>Northeast China (NEC) suffered its worst persistent drought event in recent decades from March to July of 2017 with devastating impacts on the environment and agriculture. Previous drought mechanism studies focused on the atmospheric remote response to Arctic sea ice and ENSO, while less attention was paid to synergistic effects of large-scale teleconnections and local land-atmosphere coupling. Here we show that a strong positive phase of Arctic Oscillation in March triggered the NEC drought, and a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train maintained the drought with an anticyclone located over the area south to Lake Baikal (ASLB) in April-July. By using a land-atmosphere coupling index based on the persistence of positive feedback between boundary layer and land surface, we find that the NEC and ASLB experienced a wet coupling in March while a persistently strengthened dry coupling in April-July. Over ASLB, the dry coupling and sinking motion increased surface sensible heat, decreased cloud cover, and weakened longwave absorption, resulting in a diabatic heating anomaly in the lower atmosphere and a diabatic cooling anomaly in the upper atmosphere. This anomalous vertical heating profile generated a negative anomaly of potential vorticity, indicating that the land-atmosphere coupling had a phase-lock effect on the Rossby wave train originating from upstream areas, and therefore maintained the NEC drought over downstream regions. Numerical simulations with and without surface sensible heating are being conducted to verify the influence of teleconnected land-atmosphere coupling, i.e., dry land conditions over ASLB in May can cause positive height anomaly over ASLB and NEC during June-July through heating the low level atmosphere. Our study suggests that upstream quasi-stationary wave pattern strengthened by land-atmosphere coupling should be considered in diagnosing persistent droughts especially over northern mid-latitudes.</p>

On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U. S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-60
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Randal D. Koster
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ocean Region ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

AbstractMuch of the southeast United States experienced record dry conditions during September of 2019, with the area in abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions growing from 25% at the beginning of the month to 80% by the end of the month. The drought ended just as abruptly due to above normal rain that fell during the second half of October. In this study we employed MERRA-2 and the GEOS-5 AGCM to diagnose the underlying causes of the drought’s onset, maintenance, and demise. The basic approach involves performing a series of AGCM simulations in which the model is constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over pre-specified areas that are external to the drought region. The start of the drought appears to have been forced by anomalous heating in the central/western tropical Pacific that resulted in low level anti-cyclonic flow and a tendency for descending motion over much of the southeast. An anomalous ridge associated with a Rossby wave train (emanating from the Indian Ocean region) is found to be the main source of the most intense temperature and precipitation anomalies that develop over the southeast during the last week of September. A second Rossby wave train (emanating from the same region) is responsible for the substantial rain that fell during the second half of October to end the drought. The links to the Indian Ocean Dipole (with record positive values) as well as a waning El Nino allow some speculation as to the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future.

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