Non-Hydrostatic RegCM4 (RegCM4-NH): model description and case studies over multiple domains

We describe the development of a non-hydrostatic version of the regional climate model RegCM4, called RegCM4-NH, for use at convection-permitting resolutions. The non-hydrostatic dynamical core of the Mesoscale Model MM5 is introduced in the RegCM4, with some modifications to increase stability and applicability of the model to long-term climate simulations. Newly available explicit microphysics schemes are also described, and three case studies of intense convection events are carried out in order to illustrate the performance of the model. They are all run at a convection-permitting grid spacing of 3 km over domains in northern California, Texas and the Lake Victoria region, without the use of parameterized cumulus convection. A substantial improvement is found in several aspects of the simulations compared to corresponding coarser-resolution (12 km) runs completed with the hydrostatic version of the model employing parameterized convection. RegCM4-NH is currently being used in different projects for regional climate simulations at convection-permitting resolutions and is intended to be a resource for users of the RegCM modeling system.

The causes and consequences of fisheries conflict around the Horn of Africa

Fisheries conflict is an underappreciated threat to the stability and health of communities. Declining fish populations, rising demand for seafood, and efforts to reduce illegal fishing are increasing the risk that conflict over fisheries resources will undermine stability and peace. Here, we investigate the frequency, causes, and consequences of fisheries conflict in six countries around the Horn of Africa and East Africa (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Yemen) between 1990 and 2017. Fisheries conflict events were cataloged from news reports, and events were characterized by the date, location, actors, consequences, and drivers of the conflict. We found the rate of fisheries conflict is gradually increasing in the region, with spikes in conflict driven by the arrival of foreign fishing boats or international naval vessels. Conflict was caused primarily by illegal fishing, foreign fishing, weak governance, limits on access to fishing grounds, and criminal activities including piracy. Two-thirds of all conflict events occurred in Kenyan and Somali waters, with areas of high conflict intensity in the Lake Victoria region, near the Somali coastline, and in the southern Red Sea. During this period, 684 fisheries conflict events in the region resulted in over 400 fatalities, nearly 500 injuries, and over 4,000 arrests.

Nitrogen use efficiency trends for sustainable crop productivity in Lake Victoria basin: smallholder farmers’ perspectives on nitrogen cycling

Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) is one of the established metrics for benchmarking management of Nitrogen (N) in various systems. Numerous approaches to calculate NUE exist, making it difficult to compare the performances of systems depending on the methodology used. This study adopted the conceptualized framework by European Union Nitrogen Expert Panel (EUNEP) to calculate NUE values for cereal crops to determine future trends for the first time in the Lake Victoria region. Data were collected through in-person interviews among maize and rice smallholder farmers within the Lake Victoria region. A total of 295 observations were recorded. Collected data on yield and N fertilizer were used to make projections on the changes of NUE based on scientific and policy recommendations for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2020 (base year), 2025, 2030, and 2050. Significant differences in maize grain yield for both fertilized and unfertilized farms were observed with very low yields of 2.4 t ha-1 (fertilized) and 1.4 tha-1 (unfertilized). The graphical representation of NUE of both maize and rice showed that most farmers were in the zone of soil N mining. Projected results showed that most maize farmers within Lake Victoria region will continue to experience NUE values >90%, low N inputs <50 kg N ha-1) and less than 5 t ha-1 maize crop yield over the years. For rice farmers, Nyando and Nzoia catchments had surpassed the set target of both yield (6 t ha-1) and N input (50 kg N ha-1). However, NUE values remain higher than the optimal ranges of 50-90% (127.14% -267.57%), indicating risks of depleting soil N status. The unbalanced N fertilization also showed a trend below the linear neutrality option and the average N output for good N management for both crops. Therefore, farmers need to explore various crop management options that could increase N use efficiencies. This should be coupled with policies that promote farmers to access more N input and advocate for optimal management of N and improved quality of the cereals

Non-Hydrostatic RegCM4 (RegCM4-NH): Model description and case studies over multiple domains

We describe the development of a non-hydrostatic version of the regional climate model RegCM4, called RegCM4-NH, for use at convection-permitting resolutions. The non-hydrostatic dynamical core of the Mesoscale Model MM5 is introduced in the RegCM4, with some modifications to increase stability and applicability of the model to long-term climate simulations. Newly available explicit microphysics schemes are also described, and three case studies of intense convection events are carried out in order to illustrate the performance of the model. They are all run at convection-permitting grid spacing of 3 km over domains in northern California, Texas and the Lake Victoria region, without the use of parameterized cumulus convection. A substantial improvement is found in the simulations compared to corresponding coarser resolution (12 km) runs completed with the hydrostatic version of the model employing parameterized convection. RegCM4-NH is currently being used in different projects for regional climate simulations at convection permitting resolutions, and is intended to be a resource for users of the RegCM modeling system.

Analysis of Climate Change and Extreme Climatic Events in the Lake Victoria Region of Tanzania

The understanding of climate change impacts and the associated climate extreme events at regional and local scales is of critical importance for planning and development of feasible adaptation strategies. In this paper, we present an analysis of climate change and extreme climate events in the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania, focusing on the Kagera and Geita regions. We use daily simulated climate variables (rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Program Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs) for the analysis. Extreme climate event, rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures time series during historical (1971–2000) climate condition are compared to future climate projection (2011–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The existence, magnitude, and statistical significance of potential trends in climate data time series are estimated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and Theil-SEN slope estimator methods. Results show that during historical (1971–2000) climate, the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania experienced a statistically significant increasing trend in temperature. The annual minimum and maximum temperatures in the Kagera and Geita regions have increased by 0.54–0.69°C, and 0.51–0.69°C, respectively. The numbers of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) during the historical climate have increased, while the numbers of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) have decreased significantly. However, in future climate condition (2011–2100) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the Lake Victoria region is likely to experience increased temperatures and rainfall. The frequency of cold events (cold days and cold nights) is likely to decrease, while the frequency of warm events (warm days and warm nights) is likely to increase significantly. The number of consecutive wet days, the intensity of very wet days, and the number of extreme wet days are likely to increase. These results indicate that in future climate condition, socioeconomic livelihoods of people in the Kagera and Geita regions are likely to experience significant challenges from climate-related stresses. It is, therefore, recommended that appropriate planning and effective adaptation policies are in place for disaster risk prevention.