Exploring the differences in SPC convective outlook interpretation using categorical and numeric information

While previous work has shown the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks accurately capture meteorological outcomes, evidence suggests stakeholders and the public may misinterpret the categorical words currently used in the product. This work attempts to address this problem by investigating public reactions to alternative information formats that include numeric information: (1) numeric risk levels (i.e., “Level 2 of 5”) and (2) numeric probabilities (i.e., “a 5% chance”). In addition, it explores how different combinations of the categorical labels with numeric information may impact public reactions to the product. Survey data comes from the 2020 Severe Weather and Society Survey, a nationally representative survey of US adults. Participants were shown varying combinations of the information formats of interest, and then rated their concern about the weather and the likelihood of changing plans in response to the given information. Results indicate that providing numeric information (in the form of levels or probabilities) increases the likelihood of participants correctly interpreting the convective outlook information relative to categorical labels alone. Including the categorical labels increases misinterpretation, regardless of whether numeric information was included alongside the labels. Finally, findings indicate participants’ numeracy (or their ability to understand and work with numbers) had an impact on correct interpretation of the order of the outlook labels. Although there are many challenges to correctly interpreting the SPC convective outlook, using only numeric labels instead of the current categorical labels may be a relatively straightforward change that could improve public interpretation of the product.

Weather Forecast Semiotics: Public Interpretation of Common Weather Icons

Weather icons are some of the most frequently used visual tools meteorologists employ to communicate weather information. Previous research has shown a tendency for the public to make inferences about weather forecast information based on the icon shown. For example, people may infer a higher likelihood of precipitation, assume a higher intensity of precipitation, or determine the duration of expected precipitation if the weather icon appears to show heavy rain. It is unknown to what extent these inferences align with what the meteorologist who chose the icon intended to convey. However, previous studies have used simulated weather icons rather than ones currently in use. The goal of our study was to explore how members of the public interpret actual weather icons they see on television or in mobile applications. An online survey distributed by broadcast meteorologists through social media was used to collect 6,253 responses between August and September of 2020. Eleven weather icons currently used by broadcast meteorologists were included in the study. We also tested eight common weather phrases and asked people whether they thought the icons were good illustrators of those phrases. Additionally, people were asked to assign a probability of precipitation (PoP) to the icons. The findings of our study offer new and unique insights that will improve the communication of weather information by giving meteorologists information about how their audiences interpret weather icons.

Colorful Language: Investigating Public Interpretation of the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

Although severe weather forecast products, such as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlook, are much more accurate than climatology at day-to-week time scales, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms claim dozens of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage every year. While the accuracy of this outlook has been well documented, less work has been done to explore the comprehension of the product by non-expert users like the general public. This study seeks to fill this key knowledge gap by collecting data from a representative survey of U.S. adults in the lower 48 states about their use and interpretation of the SPC convective outlook. Participants in this study were asked to rank the words and colors used in the outlook from least to greatest risk, and their answers were compared through visualizations and statistical tests across multiple demographics. Results show that the US public ranks the outlook colors similarly to their ordering in the outlook but switch the positions of several of the outlook words as compared to the operational product. Logistic regression models also reveal that more numerate individuals more correctly rank the SPC outlook words and colors. These findings suggest that the words used in the convective outlook may confuse non-expert users, and that future work should continue to use input from public surveys to test potential improvements in the choice of outlook words. Using more easily understood words may help to increase the outlook’s decision support value and potentially reduce the harm caused by severe weather events.

Cultural Heritage Presentation and Interpretation

With conceptual roots going back to the first half of the 20th century, the public interpretation and presentation of cultural and archaeological heritage have become essential components in the conservation and protection of cultural heritage values and sites. By the early 21st century, the mechanisms and processes of public interpretation had reached a heightened level of sophistication and effectiveness. In the international arena, many leading organizations have emerged that are carrying the banner of interpretation principles for access, inclusion, and respect for multiple points of view. These principles emphasize the importance of dialogue facilitated by community engagement experts / laypersons, and participation in all phases of program planning, development, and delivery. Conventions and charters have been two of the most used categories of international documents to frame standards and guidelines for cultural and archaeological heritage management and presentation. International documents that specifically addressed the presentation and interpretation of archaeological heritage did not take shape until the late 20th century. The most important international document, to date, relating to interpretation and presentation of archaeological heritage sites is the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) Charter on the Interpretation and Presentation of Cultural Heritage Sites (2008). The charter lays out seven principles of interpretation and presentation about the conservation, education, and stewardship messages that represent the transcendent humanistic values of the resource. The concept of authenticity has become a central concern in the conservation and interpretation of cultural heritage. The Nara Document of 1994 (ICOMOS 1994, cited under Guidelines and Charters) built on the Venice Charter (ICOMOS 1965, cited under Guidelines and Charters), considering an expanding scope of cultural heritage concerns. It addresses the need for a broader understanding of cultural diversity and cultural heritage and underscores the importance of considering the cultural and social values of all societies. It emphasizes respect for other cultures, other values, and the tangible and intangible expressions that form part of the heritage of every culture. The Nara+20 text identifies five key interrelated issues highlighting prioritized actions to be developed and expanded within global, national, and local contexts by wider community and stakeholder involvement: (1) diversity of heritage processes, (2) implications of the evolution of cultural values, (3) involvement of multiple stakeholders, (4) conflicting claims and interpretations, and (5) the role of cultural heritage in sustainable development. The goal of more-inclusive interpretations requires an acceptance of divergent definitions of authenticity that depend on a level of tolerance of multiple definitions of significance with concomitant, objectively derived, assigned, and ascribed heritage values. We can hope that these efforts lead to the recognition of humanistic values that are reflected in cultural heritage narratives and heritage tourism practices as well as site commemoration and protection decisions by controlling authorities.

Exploring the Interplay Between Deviance and Loneliness at Work

Deviance and loneliness at work are two constructs, the public interpretation of which locates them as social and economic problems that risk wellbeing and productivity at work. In line with the dominant framing of these two concepts, the authors first examine the overlap between them, explicating how and why deviance and loneliness may be similar. Through exploration of academic evidence and framing of both concepts, they provide a typology of deviance and loneliness that flesh out both destructive and constructive interpretations of the two concepts with a view to identify behavioral patterns at their intersection.

Mediated memory and life in dignity

After the fall of an oppressive regime, public interpretation of the past provides the normative backbone for the new society’s institutional framework. This narrative also molds temporality on a collective level, elevating some events and eras above the floating river of time, while omitting or suppressing others. In all societies, collective memory, and the temporality embedded within it, are mediated within the public domain. This paper argues that the hyper-accelerated time of transition leaves its mediating function vulnerable and prone to slip into manipulation. By monopolizing the public interpretation of the past and manipulating public temporality, political regimes undermine the processes of healing and reconciliation, which require us to recognize different voices and interpretations. A manipulated temporality, that clashes with the personal temporality of lived experience, may violate personal identity and dignity and impede the democratic project.