Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises

The world is experiencing myriad crises, from global climate change to a major pandemic to runaway inequality, mass impoverishment, and rising sectarian violence. Such crises are not new, but have been recurrent features of past societies. Although these periods have typically led to massive loss of life, the failure of critical institutions, and even complete societal collapse, lessons can be learned from societies that managed to avoid the more devastating and destructive outcomes. Here, we present a preliminary analysis of outcomes from periods of crisis in 50 historical societies and examine closely four cases of averted crisis in world history, highlighting common features. A key observation is that the structural-demographic cycles that give rise to societal crises typically incorporate a ‘gilded age’ during which more future-minded governance could avert future crises. To accomplish more forward-thinking public policy, capable not just of ‘flattening the curve’, but of actually breaking the cycle that produces societal crises in the first place, we argue that systematic quantitative analysis of patterns in world history is a necessary first step.

The Fire

Societies need energy in order to sustain themselves and their members. This energy comes in two forms: fuel and food. These are continuous: they are both means of energy acquisition consumed for the same purpose, the maintenance of a complex society. The energy sources that sustain a society—whether fuel or food—must have a sufficiently high aggregate energy returned on energy invested (EROI). The EROI of a source is the energy acquired from a source divided by the energy that the society had to invest in acquiring it. Once the EROI of a society’s energy sources drops below a certain threshold, societal collapse often results: the breakup of that society and the emergence of new, simpler societies. Calculations suggest that maintenance of a society recognizably similar to our own vis-à-vis socioeconomic parameters requires energy sources with EROIs in the 11–14 range. Maintenance of certain markers of liberal democracies may require higher EROIs, in the 20–30 range.

A STORY OF AWE AND CLAY: MOLD-MADE HIEROGLYPHS FROM ALTA VERAPAZ, GUATEMALA

The recent discovery of an ancient Late Classic ceramic production facility in a valley floor, east of the current capital of Cobán in Guatemala, reveals a new ceramic form and provides data concerning regional chronology. Among the remains are thin, mold-made fragments identified as ceramic plaques that have epigraphic information providing a Long Count date for the first time in the Alta Verapaz region. These data correlate with the preliminary ceramic sequences and assist with understanding political-economic interactions that occurred at a time of societal collapse within the southern lowland region.

Factors Influencing Preparedness for Bioterrorism among Koreans

Bioterrorism is destructive enough to cause a societal collapse, and preparation for bioterrorism is imperative. This study aims to identify the factors influencing preparedness for bioterrorism among Koreans. A total of 1,050 subjects were included in the study, which were allocated according to region and age in proportion to population. An online survey was used to examine the following factors: participants’ general characteristics; cognitive factors including perceived probability, perceived seriousness, perceived personal impact, perceived coping efficacy, and perceived resilience; social–contextual factors including perceived governmental preparedness and perceived front-line preparedness; affective responses including affective response to terrorism and anxiety; and bioterrorism preparedness. The factors influencing the level of preparedness for bioterrorism included age, marital status, experience of bioterrorism education, perceived personal impact, perceived coping efficacy, perceived resilience, and perceived front-line preparedness. The factors that most significantly affected the level of preparedness for bioterrorism were perceived coping efficacy and perceived front-line preparedness, with an R2 of 41.4%. Relevant education and public relations programs should be strengthened to help citizens minimize their exposure and known to inform relevant institutions in the event of suspected bioterrorism, and front-line responders should cultivate their ability to respond to bioterrorism quickly and accurately.

Essential Crimes? Essential Punishments? Rethinking Essentiality in the Midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The phrases, “essential businesses” and “essential jobs,” emerged at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, raising questions about and reflecting concerns over which goods, services, and workers were necessary to prevent societal collapse. In an attempt to continue to probe “essentiality,” this article coins the term “essential crimes” to refer to those socially injurious acts and omissions that are part and parcel of a global neoliberal capitalist order, and that are, therefore, vital to keep the socioeconomic system running. In other words, if keeping humans alive in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic required supermarkets and hospitals to remain open (“essential business and jobs”), maintaining the existing socioeconomic system and ensuring that the powerful remained powerful required harmful acts and omissions by states and corporations—what we refer to as “essential crimes.” This article sheds light on how the COVID-19 pandemic has helped illuminate just how essential these crimes and harms are to the perpetuation of the status quo by the powerful. In addition, this article encourages us to consider which punishments, if any, are vital to a well-ordered society, and it demands that we rethink whether prison is an “essential punishment” for ensuring public safety.

Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse

There is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse pathway. We first review the societal collapse and existential risk literature and define a set of determinants of societal collapse. We develop an original methodology, using these determinants as societal collapse proxies, to identify an empirical evidence base of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse in contemporary society and then structure it using a novel-format causal loop diagram (CLD) defined at global scale and national granularity. The resulting evidence base varies in temporal and spatial distribution of study and in the type of data-driven methods used. The resulting CLD documents the spread of the evidence base, using line thickness and colour to depict density and type of data-driven method respectively. It enables exploration of how the effects of climate change may undermine agricultural systems and disrupt food supply, which can lead to economic shocks, socio-political instability as well as starvation, migration and conflict. Suggestions are made for future work that could build on this paper to further develop our qualitative understanding of, and quantitative complex systems modelling capabilities for analysing, the causal pathways between climate change and societal collapse.

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise

Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change, and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly nonlinear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future.