Forty years of declining burglary in the United States: Explanation and evidence relating to the security hypothesis

Residential burglary in the United States has declined by over 80% across the last four decades, representing a major social phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research indicates a need for investigation of the security hypothesis. Here, 50 years of studies are examined chronologically. A consistent narrative emerges which indicates that household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time. Improvement occurred via several mechanisms: the increased prevalence, quality, coverage, and routine use of security fixtures and fittings. In addition, crime displacement declined over time as fewer households offered easy crime opportunities, and the average age of burglars increased as juveniles found burglary increasingly difficult. Hence the study concludes that gradual household security improvements played a central role in the decline in residential burglary. While the findings suggest a considerable revison is needed to our understanding of burglary and burglars, the likelihood that 50 years of diverse burglary research points in the same direction by chance, and without significant contrary evidence, seems remote. Further implications for theory, policy, and research are identified.

Why has burglary declined by 80 percent across four decades in the United States? Evidence relating to the security hypothesis

Residential burglary imposes significant financial and emotional costs upon victims and society overall. Yet residential burglary in the US has declined by over 80 percent across the last four decades, representing a major social phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research indicates a need for investigation of the security hypothesis. Here, 50 years of burglary studies are examined chronologically. A consistent narrative emerges which indicates that household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time. Improvement occurred via three mechanisms: the increased prevalence, quality, and routine use of security fixtures and fittings. In addition, crime displacement declined as fewer household presented easy crime opportunities, and burglars’ average age increased ( juveniles finding burglary increasingly difficult). The likelihood that 50 years of diverse evidence points in the same direction by chance, and without significant contrary evidence, seems remote. Hence the conclusion is that gradual household security improvements played a central role in the decline in residential burglary over time. Implications for theory, policy, and further research are identified.

Towards a Theory for Explaining Socially-Engineered Cyber Deception and Theft

Socially engineered cyber deception and theft seems to have gained prominence in cybercrime. Given the contextual background of inadequate theoretical explanations of socially engineered cyber deception and theft cybercrime, there is the need for theory to better explain and possibly predict activities involved in socially engineered cyber deception and theft. This chapter proposes a theory of socially engineered cyber deception and theft (SECT), with routine activity theory, crime displacement theory, the space transition theory, and empirical review as its foundation. It iteratively combines deductive and inductive approaches to infer the occurrence of socially engineered cyber deception and theft. While the deductive approach serves the deduction leading to the inference, the inductive approach extracts and suggests empirical evidence for a deterministic prediction of the crime occurrence. It is recommended that the theory is further validated to test its applicability.

Grid-Based Crime Prediction Using Geographical Features

Machine learning is useful for grid-based crime prediction. Many previous studies have examined factors including time, space, and type of crime, but the geographic characteristics of the grid are rarely discussed, leaving prediction models unable to predict crime displacement. This study incorporates the concept of a criminal environment in grid-based crime prediction modeling, and establishes a range of spatial-temporal features based on 84 types of geographic information by applying the Google Places API to theft data for Taoyuan City, Taiwan. The best model was found to be Deep Neural Networks, which outperforms the popular Random Decision Forest, Support Vector Machine, and K-Near Neighbor algorithms. After tuning, compared to our design’s baseline 11-month moving average, the F1 score improves about 7% on 100-by-100 grids. Experiments demonstrate the importance of the geographic feature design for improving performance and explanatory ability. In addition, testing for crime displacement also shows that our model design outperforms the baseline.

Entertainment as Crime Prevention: Evidence From Chicago Sports Games

The concern that mass media may be responsible for aggressive and criminal behavior is widespread. Comparatively little consideration has been given to its diversionary function. We test for the effect of television entertainment on crime by leveraging the randomness inherent in the scheduling of sporting events. We compare Chicago crime reports by the half hour when Chicago’s sports teams are playing to reports at the same time, day, and month when the teams are not playing. We conduct the same analysis for the Super Bowl, National Basketball Association Finals, and Major League Baseball World Series. We find consistent decreases in crime during games. Short-term crime displacement is minimal or nonexistent.

A Weighted Displacement Quotient model for understanding the impact of Crime Prevention through Environmental Design

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), a crime prevention tool, on reducing rates of sexual assault. In addition, the study attempts to understand if CPTED results in crime displacement in non-target areas. Design/methodology/approach This research utilizes a Weighted Displacement Quotient (WDQ) model to analyze the effects of CPTED, which is an appropriate tool in fields of regional-scale crime prevention and on sexual assault prevention. WDQ is capable of analyzing policy effectiveness while controlling for geographical crime displacement, a known side effect of CPTED in the literature. Findings The analysis results show that CPTED is an effective tool to prevent sexual assaults in South Korea. The sexual assault occurrence rate decreased in the CPTED implementation zone of Yeomri-dong Mapo-gu. WDQ showed that crime displacement occurred in adjacent areas in Daeheung-dong and Ahyun-dong. But, crime displacement was lower than the policy effectiveness in the target zone. Originality/value The policy implications of this research are immense. First, CPTED for the prevention of sexual assaults should be considered as a pre-control tool. Second, a strategic method for more effectively implementing CPTED is required. Third, because CPTED is a policy done on a regional scale, provisions need to be in place to manage crime displacement.