scholarly journals Why has burglary declined by 80 percent across four decades in the United States? Evidence relating to the security hypothesis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Farrell

Residential burglary imposes significant financial and emotional costs upon victims and society overall. Yet residential burglary in the US has declined by over 80 percent across the last four decades, representing a major social phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research indicates a need for investigation of the security hypothesis. Here, 50 years of burglary studies are examined chronologically. A consistent narrative emerges which indicates that household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time. Improvement occurred via three mechanisms: the increased prevalence, quality, and routine use of security fixtures and fittings. In addition, crime displacement declined as fewer household presented easy crime opportunities, and burglars’ average age increased ( juveniles finding burglary increasingly difficult). The likelihood that 50 years of diverse evidence points in the same direction by chance, and without significant contrary evidence, seems remote. Hence the conclusion is that gradual household security improvements played a central role in the decline in residential burglary over time. Implications for theory, policy, and further research are identified.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Farrell

AbstractResidential burglary in the United States has declined by over 80% across the last four decades, representing a major social phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research indicates a need for investigation of the security hypothesis. Here, 50 years of studies are examined chronologically. A consistent narrative emerges which indicates that household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time. Improvement occurred via several mechanisms: the increased prevalence, quality, coverage, and routine use of security fixtures and fittings. In addition, crime displacement declined over time as fewer households offered easy crime opportunities, and the average age of burglars increased as juveniles found burglary increasingly difficult. Hence the study concludes that gradual household security improvements played a central role in the decline in residential burglary. While the findings suggest a considerable revison is needed to our understanding of burglary and burglars, the likelihood that 50 years of diverse burglary research points in the same direction by chance, and without significant contrary evidence, seems remote. Further implications for theory, policy, and research are identified.


Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadar Otite ◽  
Smit Patel ◽  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Pushti Khandwala ◽  
Devashish Desai ◽  
...  

Background: The primary aim of this study is to describe current trends in racial-, age- and sex-specific incidence, clinical characteristics and burden of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in the United States (US). Methods: Validated International Classification of Disease codes were used to identify all adult new cases of CVT (n=5,567) in the State Inpatients Database of New York and Florida (2006-2016) and all cases of CVT in the entire US from the National Inpatient Sample 2005-2016 (weighted n=57,315). Incident CVT counts were combined with annual US Census data to compute age and sex-specific incidence of CVT. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate trends in incidence over time. Results: From 2005-2016, 0.47%-0.80% of all strokes in the US were CVTs but this proportion increased by 70.4% over time. Of all CVTs over this period, 66.7% were in females but this proportion declined over time (p<0.001). Pregnancy/puerperium (27.4%) and cancer (11.8%) were the most common risk factors in women, while cancer (19.5%) and central nervous trauma (11.3) were the most common in men. Whereas the prevalence of pregnancy/puerperium declined significantly over time in women, that of cancer, inflammatory conditions and trauma increased over time in both sexes. Annual age and sex-standardized incidence of CVT in cases/million population ranged from 13.9-20.2, but incidence varied significantly by sex (women: 20.3-26.9; men 6.8-16.8) and by age/sex (women 18-44yo: 24.0-32.6%; men: 18-44yo: 5.3-12.8). Age and sex-standardized incidence also differed by race (Blacks:18.6-27.2; whites: 14.3-18.5; Asians: 5.1-13.8). On joinpoint regression, incidence increased across 2006-2016 but most of this increase was driven by increase in all age groups of men (combined annualized percentage change (APC) 9.2%, p-value <0.001), women 45-64 yo (APC 7.8%, p-value <0.001) and women ≥65 yo (APC 7.4%, p-value <0.001). Incidence in women 18-44 yo remained unchanged over time . Conclusion: The epidemiological characteristics of CVT patients in the US is changing. Incidence increased significantly over the last decade. Further studies are needed to determine whether this increase represents a true increase from changing risk factors or artefactual increase from improved detection.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 645-667
Author(s):  
Vicki C Jackson

Aspects of an entrenched constitution that were essential parts of founding compromises, and justified as necessary when a constitution was first adopted, may become less justifiable over time. Is this the case with respect to the structure of the United States Senate? The US Senate is hardwired in the Constitution to consist of an equal number of Senators from each state—the smallest of which currently has about 585,000 residents, and the largest of which has about 39.29 million. As this essay explains, over time, as population inequalities among states have grown larger, so too has the disproportionate voting power of smaller-population states in the national Senate. As a result of the ‘one-person, one-vote’ decisions of the 1960s that applied to both houses of state legislatures, each state legislature now is arguably more representative of its state population than the US Congress is of the US population. The ‘democratic deficit’ of the Senate, compared to state legislative bodies, also affects presidential (as compared to gubernatorial) elections. When founding compromises deeply entrenched in a constitution develop harder-to-justify consequences, should constitutional interpretation change responsively? Possible implications of the ‘democratic’ difference between the national and the state legislatures for US federalism doctrine are explored, especially with respect to the ‘pre-emption’ doctrine. Finally, the essay briefly considers the possibilities of federalism for addressing longer term issues of representation, polarisation and sustaining a single nation.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID E. LEWIS

The US Congress has often sought to limit presidential influence over certain public policies by designing agencies that are insulated from presidential control. Whether or not insulated agencies persist over time has important consequences for presidential management. If those agencies that persist over time are also those that are the most immune from presidential direction, this has potentially fatal consequences for the president's ability to manage the executive branch. Modern presidents will preside over a less and less manageable bureaucracy over time. This article explains why agencies insulated from presidential control are more durable than other agencies and shows that they have a significantly higher expected duration than other agencies. The conclusion is that modern American presidents preside over a bureaucracy that is increasingly insulated from their control.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margherita Russo ◽  
◽  
Fabrizio Alboni ◽  
Jorge Carreto Sanginés ◽  
Manlio De Domenico ◽  
...  

In 2018, after 25 years of the North America Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the United States requested new rules which, among other requirements, increased the regional con-tent in the production of automotive components and parts traded between the three part-ner countries, United States, Canada and Mexico. Signed by all three countries, the new trade agreement, USMCA, is to go into force in 2022. Nonetheless, after the 2020 Presi-dential election, the new treaty's future is under discussion, and its impact on the automo-tive industry is not entirely defined. Another significant shift in this industry – the acceler-ated rise of electric vehicles – also occurred in 2020: while the COVID-19 pandemic largely halted most plants in the automotive value chain all over the world, at the reopen-ing, the tide is now running against internal combustion engine vehicles, at least in the an-nouncements and in some large investments planned in Europe, Asia and the US. The definition of the pre-pandemic situation is a very helpful starting point for the analysis of the possible repercussions of the technological and geo-political transition, which has been accelerated by the epidemic, on geographical clusters and sectorial special-isations of the main regions and countries. This paper analyses the trade networks emerg-ing in the past 25 years in a new analytical framework. In the economic literature on inter-national trade, the study of the automotive global value chains has been addressed by us-ing network analysis, focusing on the centrality of geographical regions and countries while largely overlooking the contribution of countries' bilateral trading in components and parts as structuring forces of the subnetwork of countries and their specific position in the overall trade network. The paper focuses on such subnetworks as meso-level structures emerging in trade network over the last 25 years. Using the Infomap multilayer clustering algorithm, we are able to identify clusters of countries and their specific trades in the automotive internation-al trade network and to highlight the relative importance of each cluster, the interconnec-tions between them, and the contribution of countries and of components and parts in the clusters. We draw the data from the UN Comtrade database of directed export and import flows of 30 automotive components and parts among 42 countries (accounting for 98% of world trade flows of those items). The paper highlights the changes that occurred over 25 years in the geography of the trade relations, with particular with regard to denser and more hierarchical network gener-ated by Germany’s trade relations within EU countries and by the US preferential trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the upsurge of China. With a similar overall va-riety of traded components and parts within the main clusters (dominated respectively by Germany, US and Japan-China), the Infomap multilayer analysis singles out which com-ponents and parts determined the relative positions of countries in the various clusters and the changes over time in the relative positions of countries and their specialisations in mul-tilateral trades. Connections between clusters increase over time, while the relative im-portance of the main clusters and of some individual countries change significantly. The focus on US and Mexico and on Germany and Central Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) will drive the comparative analysis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuchen Yang ◽  
Ellen Siobhan Mitchell ◽  
Annabell S. Ho ◽  
Laura DeLuca ◽  
Heather Behr ◽  
...  

Mobile health (mHealth) interventions are ubiquitous and effective treatment options for obesity. There is a widespread assumption that the mHealth interventions will be equally effective in other locations. In an initial test of this assumption, this retrospective study assesses weight loss and engagement with an mHealth behavior change weight loss intervention developed in the United States (US) in four English-speaking regions: the US, Australia and New Zealand (AU/NZ), Canada (CA), and the United Kingdom and Ireland (UK/IE). Data for 18,459 participants were extracted from the database of Noom's Healthy Weight Program. Self-reported weight was collected every week until program end (week 16). Engagement was measured using user-logged and automatically recorded actions. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate change in weight over time, and ANOVAs evaluated differences in engagement. In all regions, 27.2–33.2% of participants achieved at least 5% weight loss by week 16, with an average of 3–3.7% weight loss. Linear mixed models revealed similar weight outcomes in each region compared to the US, with a few differences. Engagement, however, significantly differed across regions (P &lt; 0.001 on 5 of 6 factors). Depending on the level of engagement, the rate of weight loss over time differed for AU/NZ and UK/IE compared to the US. Our findings have important implications for the use and understanding of digital weight loss interventions worldwide. Future research should investigate the determinants of cross-country engagement differences and their long-term effects on intervention outcomes.


Author(s):  
Ahmad Helmy Fuady

The objective of this paper is to examine the competitiveness of Indonesia's exports to the United States (US) market, compared to other Asian economies, namely Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Republic of Korea and India, over the period of 1986-2003. A shift-share method is applied to single digit SITC US imports data from those countries. It found that the competitiveness of Indonesia's exports changes over time. The Indonesia's exports reached its best performance in the period 1992-1997. However, after the 1997 economic crisis, Indonesia faces a serious problem, since none of its export has competitiveness in the US market, compared to the reference economy. The analysis also shows that China has consistently posed a serious pressure not only for Indonesia, but also for the other Asian economies.


2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 859
Author(s):  
Meredith Kolsky Lewis

The author comments on Luke Nottage's paper found in this volume (Luke Nottage "Who's Afraid of the Vienna Sales Convention (CISG)? A New Zealander's View from Australia and Japan" (2005) 36 VUWLR 815). The author first identifies additional factors as to why the Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods ('CISG') may be opted out of in the United States: its lack of a duty of good faith, its narrow scope, and its uncertainty of outcome. However, the author argues that we should be more optimistic about the use of the CISG in the US. First, the US is an original signatory. Secondly, Americans may come to accept the CISG more as their exposure to it grows. Thirdly, a lack of reported US cases involving the CISG does not necessarily mean it is not being used – it purely indicates a lack of litigation. Fourthly, the CISG not being used may speak more about who the US are doing business with. Finally, the numbers show that the CISG is being used frequently. The author therefore concludes that we should be optimistic about the use of the CISG in the United States, and expects its use will increase over time.


Author(s):  
Bruce Johnson

The globalization of jazz was also the globalization of black US popular culture. This essay discloses, and provides a model for, the ambiguous dynamics of popular music migrations and the race politics that frame them. In diasporic destinations, those politics are generated by cultural histories very different from that of the United States, and which also exhibit their own synchronic and diachronic heterogeneities, thus introducing distinctive local complexities. In the context of the black-centered jazz canon, these circumstances have produced regional jazz narratives that are derived from the US model, but with often radically different inflections from place to place, and over time. Apart from documenting the perennial ubiquity of the blackness/jazz nexus, the study identifies a broad historical trajectory, in which the focus shifted from African American blackness to a pan-African model that anticipated the World Music phenomenon.


2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (16) ◽  
pp. 8836-8844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asad L. Asad

Deportation has become more commonplace in the United States since the mid-2000s. Latin American noncitizens—encompassing undocumented and documented immigrants—are targeted for deportation. Deportation’s threat also reaches naturalized and US-born citizens of Latino descent who are largely immune to deportation but whose loved ones or communities are deportable. Drawing on 6 y of data from the National Survey of Latinos, this article examines whether and how Latinos’ deportation fears vary by citizenship and legal status and over time. Compared with Latino noncitizens, Latino US citizens report lower average deportation fears. However, a more complex story emerges when examining this divide over time: Deportation fears are high but stable among Latino noncitizens, whereas deportation fears have increased substantially among Latino US citizens. These trends reflect a growing national awareness of—rather than observable changes to—deportation policy and practice since the 2016 US presidential election. The article highlights how deportation or its consequences affects a racial group that the US immigration regime targets disproportionately.


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