Reconstruction of the Sunspot Number Source Database and the 1947 Zurich Discontinuity

The recalibration of the sunspot number series, the primary long-term record of the solar cycle, requires the recovery of the entire collection of raw sunspot counts collected by the Zurich Observatory for the production of this index between 1849 and 1980.Here, we report about the major progresses accomplished recently in the construction of this global digital sunspot number database, and we derive global statistics of all the individual observers and professional observatories who provided sunspot data over more than 130 years.First, we can announce the full recovery of long-lost source-data tables covering the last 34 years between 1945 and 1979, and we describe the unique information available in those tables. We then also retrace the evolution of the core observing team in Zurich and of the auxiliary stations. In 1947, we find a major disruption in the composition of both the Zurich team and the international network of auxiliary stations.This sharp transition is unique in the history of the Zurich Observatory and coincides with the main scale-jump found in the original Zurich sunspot number series, the so-called “Waldmeier” jump. This adds key historical evidence explaining why methodological changes introduced progressively in the early 20th century could play a role precisely at that time. We conclude on the remaining steps needed to fully complete this new sunspot data resource.

Proper orthogonal and dynamic mode decomposition of sunspot data

High-resolution solar observations show the complex structure of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave motion. We apply the techniques of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to identify the dominant MHD wave modes in a sunspot using the intensity time series. The POD technique was used to find modes that are spatially orthogonal, whereas the DMD technique identifies temporal orthogonality. Here, we show that the combined POD and DMD approaches can successfully identify both sausage and kink modes in a sunspot umbra with an approximately circular cross-sectional shape. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue ‘High-resolution wave dynamics in the lower solar atmosphere’.

Spectral characteristic of mid-term quasi-periodicities in sunspot data

ABSTRACT Numerous analyses suggest the existence of various quasi-periodicities in solar activity. The power spectrum of solar activity recorded in sunspot data is dominated by the ∼11-yr quasi-periodicity, known as the Schwabe cycle. In the mid-term range (1 month–11 yr) a pronounced variability known as a quasi-biennial oscillation is widely discussed. In the shorter time-scale a pronounced peak, corresponding to the synodic solar rotation period (∼27 d), is observed. Here we revisit the mid-term solar variability in terms of statistical dynamics of fully turbulent systems, where solid arguments are required to accept an isolated dominant frequency in a continuous (smooth) spectrum. For this, we first undertook an unbiased analysis of the standard solar data, sunspot numbers and the F10.7 solar radio flux index, by applying a wavelet tool, which allows one to perform a frequency–time analysis of the signal. Considering the spectral dynamics of solar activity cycle by cycle, we showed that no single periodicity can be separated, in a statistically significant manner, in the specified range of periods. We examine whether a model of the solar dynamo can reproduce the mid-term oscillation pattern observed in solar data. We found that a realistically observed spectrum can be explained if small spatial (but not temporal) scales are effectively smoothed. This result is important because solar activity is a global feature, although monitored via small-scale tracers like sunspots.

Sunspot data collection of Specola Solare Ticinese in Locarno

Sunspot observations and counting are carried out at the Specola Solare Ticinese in Locarno since 1957 when it was built as an external observing station of the Zurich observatory. When in 1980 the data center responsibility was transferred from ETH Zurich to the Royal Observatory of Belgium in Brussels, the observations in Locarno continued and Specola Solare Ticinese got the role of pilot station. The data collected at Specola cover now the last 6 solar cycles.The aim of this presentation is to discuss and give an overview about the Specola data collection, the applied counting method and the future archiving projects. The latter includes the publication of all data and drawings in digital form in collaboration with the ETH Zurich University Archives, where a parallel digitization project is ongoing for the document of the former Swiss Federal Observatory in Zurich collected since the time of Rudolph Wolf.

A Smoothing Technique for the Multifractal Analysis of a Medium Voltage Feeders Electric Current

The current paper presents a data-driven detrending technique allowing to smooth complex sinusoidal trends from a real-world electric load time series before applying the Detrended Multifractal Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). The algorithm we call Smoothed Sort and Cut Fourier Detrending (SSC-FD) is based on a suitable smoothing of high power periodicities operating directly in the Fourier spectrum through a polynomial fitting technique of the DFT. The main aim consists of disambiguating the characteristic slow varying periodicities, that can impair the MFDFA analysis, from the residual signal in order to study its correlation properties. The algorithm performances are evaluated on a simple benchmark test consisting of a persistent series where the Hurst exponent is known, with superimposed ten sinusoidal harmonics. Moreover, the behavior of the algorithm parameters is assessed computing the MFDFA on the well-known sunspot data, whose correlation characteristics are reported in literature. In both cases, the SSC-FD method eliminates the apparent crossover induced by the synthetic and natural periodicities. Results are compared with some existing detrending methods within the MFDFA paradigm. Finally, a study of the multifractal characteristics of the electric load time series detrendended by the SSC-FD algorithm is provided, showing a strong persistent behavior and an appreciable amplitude of the multifractal spectrum that allows to conclude that the series at hand has multifractal characteristics.

Comment on ‘The Medieval Quiet Period’ – Implications arising from models of solar irradiance

The recent re-evaluation of sunspot data by Clette et al. strongly suggests that the total solar irradiance (TSI) values for the late 20th century were (apart from 1960) not significantly different from those of the periods of sunspot maxima in the 1780s and the 1840s–1860s in the latter part of the ‘Little Ice Age’. In effect, the re-evaluation removed the previously supposed sunspot maximum of the ‘modern’ period. That means that the supposed recovery of TSI levels to values significantly higher in the late 20th century than those of the ‘Medieval Quiet (or Warm) Period’ (Figure 1 of Bradley et al., 2016) must be an artefact of the solar data. Orbital data suggest that the northern hemisphere cooled significantly over the past 2000 years, a trend confirmed by global temperature proxies. Variations about that trend were driven by small variations in sunspot activity that led to the warmth of the ‘Medieval Quiet (Warm) Period’ and the subsequent cooling of the ‘Little Ice Age’. In fact, the ‘Little Ice Age’ contained several short warm periods when sunspots were at a maximum. It seems highly likely given the new sunspot calibration that the mid- to late 20th century warming was yet another of these ‘Little Ice Age’ warm episodes (e.g. no different from that in 1780) superimposed on which was a growing additional warming supplied by expanding emissions of greenhouses gases.