ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE AND EXPECTED CHANGES IN AGRO-CLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE GUBA-KHACHMAZ ECONOMIC REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

The article discusses some issues of assessing the current state and expected changes in agro-climatic resources of the Guba-Khachmaz economic region. Research methods are selected and substantiated. The issues of interpretation of agro-climatic information are considered to determine modern "norms" of agro-climatic indicators and assess the impact of regional climate change on these resources. To assess the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, such indicators as the date of the transition of the average daily air temperature above 10 °C in the spring and below 10 °C in the fall, the length of the warm period, the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, the sum of precipitation and the hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninov for the warm season. For example, it is shown that with the expected increase in air temperature by 2 °C, the beginning of the warm period will begin in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones by 8-10 days, and in the highlands by 22 days earlier than in the modern period. In autumn, the end of the warm period is expected 11-15 days later; the length of the warm period is expected to increase by 20-23 days in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones and by 37 days in the high-mountain zone. It is also expected that the sum of active temperatures will increase by 581-665 °C for the warm period. It was revealed that the most susceptible to the influence of an increase in global air temperature by 2 °C will be medium and high mountain zones. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 4 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 1st group of drought with height will increase from 6 % to 33 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 2-nd group will change from -14 % to + 50 %, and the first group will decrease by 13-57 %. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 2 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of various groups of drought will be similar to the previous variant. Also, an assessment was made of possible changes in the frequency of drought with different intensities.

Central Air Conditioning Systems with Partial Indirect Evaporative Cooling and Utilization of Cold and Heat of Ventilation Emissions

A promising trend in air conditioning systems is the use of indirect evaporative cooling, but in the classic version it is effective in dry and hot climates. For the need to maintain comfortable air parameters in public buildings, it is not possible to fully implement such a process in the conditions of Ukraine (the relative humidity of the outside air ranges from 63 to 75 %). The aim of the work is to increase the energy efficiency of air conditioning systems with standard equipment through partial evaporative cooling and use for cooling water in cooling towers of the air removed from the rooms during the warm season, and in the cold season - use of the exhaust air for preheating the supply air in heat exchanger. A corresponding system diagram was developed and computational studies of a direct-flow circuit and a circuit with recirculation were carried out for one of the educational buildings of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. According to the results of calculating the direct-flow circuit in the warm period, the energy efficiency of indirect evaporative cooling was 23.5 %. The annual amount of recovered heat of ventilation emissions for this scheme in the cold period was 3731 GJ / year, and the economic effect - 1473185 UAH / year. For a circuit with recirculation during a warm period, the greatest effect of indirect evaporative cooling is achieved with a recirculation rate of 10 %, and for the overall decrease in the cooling capacity of the air conditioner during this period the greatest impact is not indirect evaporative cooling, but recirculation. In the cold season, the greatest utilization effect is also achieved with a 10 % recirculation rate.

ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

The article on the example of the Moscow region investigated the relationship between the increase in crop yields and changes in climates - temperature, rainfall. The obtained correlation coefficients showed an inverse relationship: an increase in temperature in the summer affects a decrease in crop yields. The dependence of yields on the amount of precipitation in the warm period is moderate, stronger for vegetable crops. To adapt agricultural production in the Moscow region to climatic changes, it was proposed to introduce the development of regenerative meadow farming as climate-saving land use. The concept of "Climatefields" has been successfully tested in Germany.

EVALUATION OF THE ACCURACY OF EVPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE EVAPO MOBILE APPLICATION

The article presents the results of the study on the accuracy of evapotranspiration in the EVAPO mobile application. The aim of the work is to provide recommendations on the effective use of the mobile application for the prompt, low-cost and convenient determination of evapotranspiration and planning the irrigation regime. Materials and methods. The study was conducted in the autumn of 2020 and in the summer of 2021 using meteorological data from Kherson Regional Hydrometeorological Station, which were used for reference calculations of evapotranspiration according to the method recommended by FAO (Penman-Monteith equation) in the ETo Calculator software. The calculated values of the reference evapotranspiration and those obtained in the EVAPO mobile application were compared with each other through the computation of the correlation coefficients, determination coefficients and mean absolute percentage errors to assess the accuracy of the data on the studied agrometeorological index in the mobile application. Statistical calculations and graphical models were performed using Microsoft Excel 365 spreadsheet processor. Polynomial regression was applied to calibrate and enhance the performance of original EVAPO application. Results. It was found that the EVAPO mobile application without additional calibration cannot provide the proper accuracy of the evapotranspiration calculation. During the cold period of the year (October-November) the mean absolute percentage error was 137.02 %, and during the warm period (May-August) it was 41.43 %. The general error of the calculation in the mobile application compared to the ETo Calculator reference values was 88.75 %. At the same time, EVAPO makes it possible to accurately track the trend of evapotranspiration dynamics, the coefficient of determination of the model is 0.86. In the warm period of the year, there is a tendency to overestimate the value of evapotranspiration, and in the cold period of the year, no clear pattern was found. The evapotranspiration values adjusted by the polynomial regression model obtained in the EVAPO mobile application allow their use in operational irrigation planning. Conclusions. The EVAPO mobile application is a convenient, accessible tool for the rapid assessment of evapotranspiration. However, its implementation on the territory of Ukraine cannot be recommended without preliminary calibration for each specific agroclimatic zone due to enormous errors in the estimation of evapotranspiration value.

The Matuyama—Brunhes boundary in the loess-palaeosol sequence of Dolynske, southern Ukraine

We present the results of a palaeomagnetic study of the Early—Middle Pleistocene deposits exposed on the left bank of the River Danube at Dolynske, southern Ukraine. A thick succession of water-lain facies is succeeded by stratigraphically complete loess-palaeosol sequence; these constitute a unique palaeoclimate archive in the southern margin of the East European loess province. The Matuyama—Brunhes boundary (MBB) has been detected at the bottom of the Lower Shyrokyne (S7S3) subunit and not in the Martonosha (S6) unit as previously thought. New data align with previous results from the Roksolany and Vyazivok sections, where the MBB was determined at the same stratigraphical level in the S7S3 soil. In contrast to terrestrial Pleistocene records in China and сentral Europe, where the MBB was regularly determined in a loess layer (representing a cold period), the MBB in the Ukrainian subaerial succession is located in the soil unit (representing a warm period). Furthermore, eight, and not seven, glacial-interglacial cycles are recorded in the Brunhes chron. This may indicate the stratigraphic completeness of the loess-soil succession of Ukraine, which can be compared with the reference global marine and terrestrial palaeoclimatic archives. Further palaeomagnetic studies of loess-palaeosol sequences of other regions of Ukraine will allow revision and correlation of still inconsistent stratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic schemes of the Pleistocene deposits.

Geological Oceanography of the Pliocene Warm Period: A Review with Predictions on the Future of Global Warming

Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached a record concentration of 419 parts per million in May 2021, 50% higher than preindustrial levels at 280 parts per million. The rise of CO2 as a heat-trapping gas is the principal barometer tracking global warming attributed to a global average increase of 1.2 °C over the last 250 years. Ongoing global warming is expected to perturb extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons), strengthened by elevated sea-surface temperatures. The melting of polar ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland also is expected to result in rising sea levels through the rest of this century. Various proxies for the estimate of long-term change in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are available through geological oceanography, which relies on the recovery of deep-sea cores for the study of sediments enriched in temperature-sensitive planktonic foraminifera and other algal residues. The Pliocene Warm Period occurred between ~4.5 and 3.0 million years ago, when sea level and average global temperatures were higher than today, and it is widely regarded as a predictive analog to the future impact of climate change. This work reviews some of the extensive literature on the geological oceanography of the Pliocene Warm Period together with a summary of land-based studies in paleotempestology focused on coastal boulder deposits (CBDs) and coastal outwash deposits (CODs) from the margin of the Pacific basin and parts of the North Atlantic basin. Ranging in age from the Pliocene through the Holocene, the values of such deposits serve as fixed geophysical markers, against which the micro-fossil record for the Pliocene Warm Period may be compared, as a registry of storm events from Pliocene and post-Pliocene times.

Humidity changes and possible forcing mechanisms over the last millennium in arid Central Asia

Hydroclimate changes have exerted a significant influence on the historical trajectory of ancient civilizations in arid Central Asia where the central routes of the Silk Road have been hosted. However, the climate changes at different time scales and their possible forcing mechanisms over the last millennium remain unclear due to low-resolution records. Here, we provide a continuous high-resolution humidity history in arid Central Asia over the past millennium based on the ~1.8-year high-resolution multiproxy records with good chronological control from Lake Dalongchi in the central Tianshan Mountains. Generally, the climate was dry during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Current Warm Period (CWP), and wet during the Little Ice Age (LIA), which could be attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Furthermore, we find that the humidity oscillation was dramatic and unstable at multidecadal to century-scale, especially within the LIA. The continuous wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence show that the humidity oscillation is modulated by the Gleissberg cycle at the century-scale and by the quasi-regular period of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the multidecadal scale. Our findings suggest that the effect of the solar cycle and the quasi-regular period of ENSO should be seriously evaluated for hydroclimate predictions and climate simulations in arid Central Asia in the future.