Vulnerability to COVID-19 in Pernambuco, Brazil: A geospatial evaluation supported by multiple-criteria decision aid methodology

The paper presents an innovative application to identify areas vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) considering a combination of spatial analysis and a multi-criteria learning approach. We applied this methodology in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil identifying vulnerable areas by considering a set of determinants and risk factors for COVID-19, including demographic, economic and spatial characteristics and the number of human COVID-19 infections. Examining possible patterns over a set number of days taking the number of cases recorded, we arrived at a set of compatible decision rules to explain the relation between risk factors and COVID-19 cases. The results reveal why certain municipalities are critically vulnerable to COVID-19 highlighting locations for which knowledge can be gained about environmental factors.

Spatial Patterns and Driving Factors of Rural Population Loss under Urban–Rural Integration Development: A Micro-Scale Study on the Village Level in a Hilly Region

Under the background of urban–rural integration, balanced development between urban and rural areas has been increasingly advocated. Rural population loss (RPL) is not only due to the laws of social and economic development but also the comprehensive action of natural, social, and economic factors. Taking 774 administrative villages in Laiyang County, which is in a hilly region, as our research area, we comprehensively used spatial analysis and geographic detectors to explore the spatial characteristics and driving factors of RPL, which was significantly correlated with rural planning. The research demonstrated that: (1) The rural population in Laiyang County generally had a low level of RPL (1.9%), but each village varied greatly. The village with the greatest RPL had a rate of 56%. The RPL between urban and rural areas, towns and streets, and villages and villages were unbalanced, and rural population flow mainly occurred between urban and rural areas. (2) RPL in Laiyang County was generally low in the central urban area and high in the northern and southern areas. Population loss presents agglomeration globally and high–low agglomeration locally. (3) The distance from village to county, elevation, cultivated land quantity, collective economic income, village area, and ecological service value were the key factors influencing RPL in Laiyang County. When comparing the dominant factors, the interaction between collective income and elevation was the strongest. Exploring the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of RPL provided us with ideas for the classified promotion of rural revitalization, preparation of rural development planning, and promotion of the integrated development of urban and rural areas.