When to depart from a stopover site? Time since arrival matters more than current weather conditions

On the journey to wintering sites, most migratory birds alternate between flights and stopovers, where they rest and refuel. In contrast to the time-minimization strategy commonly assumed to drive the pre-breeding migration, birds are rather expected to follow an energy minimization during post-breeding migration. It is the cumulative duration of flights and stopovers that determines the total energy requirements and duration of the journey. Since migrating birds actually spend most of the time at stopovers sites, selection to minimize the amount of energy or time spent on migration is likely to operate on the effectiveness of stopover rest and refueling. Here, we address the relative contribution of factors acting on departure decisions from a stopover site during the post-breeding migration in a long-distance migratory songbird. When capture probability is low, it is impossible to measure fattening over the entire duration of the stopover. To get around this limitation, we use time since arrival (TSA) as a proxy for the progressive temporal change occurring in the internal state of an individual (i.e. rest, physiological recovery, and fuel loading) during the stopover. We develop a capture–recapture model to address the respective effects of estimated TSA and of weather conditions on departure probability. Using a 20-year dataset for Sedge Warblers (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus), we show that TSA served as a surrogate of the most important information that birds use when deciding to depart from a stopover site, while low humidity and rising atmospheric pressure only slightly increase daily departure probability. Hence, a bird would resume migration mainly according to the time it had to rest and refuel, and then fine-tuning departure decision according to weather conditions. The generality of these results needs to be assessed by applying this modeling framework to other migratory species and at sites or times with greater weather variability.

Temperature change is an important departure cue in nocturnal migrants: controlled experiments with wild-caught birds in a proof-of-concept study

The decision-making process of migrating birds at stopover sites is a complex interplay of the innate migration program and both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. While it is well studied how variation in precipitation, wind and air pressure influence this process, there is less evidence of the effects of temperature changes on the departure decision. Thus, we lack knowledge on how the predicted changes due to global climate change in temperature alone may affect the decision-making process during migration. Aiming to fill parts of this gap, we conducted a proof-of-concept study by manipulating the ambient temperature of temporarily confined wild-caught migrant songbirds under constant feeding conditions. In spring, departure probability increased with a 20°C rise in temperature for both a medium-distance migrant (European robin, Erithacus rubecula ) and a long-distance migrant (northern wheatear, Oenanthe oenanthe ), and in autumn, departure probabilities of the long-distance migrant both decreased with a 20°C rise and increased with a 20°C drop. Consequently, the temperature is an important departure cue influencing the decision-making process of migrating songbirds. Incorporating causal relationships between changes in temperature and departure probability in migration models could substantially improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the phenology of migratory birds.

When to depart from a stopover site? Time-since-arrival matters more than current weather conditions

On the journey to wintering sites, migratory birds usually alternate between flights and stopovers where they rest and refuel. Migration strategies are assumed to differ according to season: a time-minimization pre-breeding migration strategy towards breeding locations, and an energy-minimization post-breeding migration strategy to wintering ones. The duration of flights and stopovers determines the energy requirements and the total duration of the journey. Since migrating birds actually spend most of the time at stopovers, selection to minimize the amount of energy or time spent on migration is very likely to operate on the effectiveness of stopover rest and refueling. Here we address the relative contribution of factors to departure decisions from stopover sites during the post-breeding migration in a long-distance migratory songbird. When capture probability is low it is impossible to assess the variation in body condition over the entire duration of the stopover. To get around this, we use Time Since Arrival (TSA) as a proxy for the changes in the state of individuals during the stopover. We propose that TSA is an integrative proxy for resting, feeding and fattening efficiency. We develop a capture-recapture model to address the relationship between departure probability, estimated TSA, and weather conditions. Using a 20-year dataset from sedge warblers, we show that TSA has a larger effect on departure probability than weather conditions. Low humidity and an increase in atmospheric pressure in the days preceding departure are associated with higher departure probability, but these effects are smaller than that of TSA.

Evidence for spring stopover refuelling in migrating silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans)

Migrating animals must acquire sufficient fuel to sustain migratory movement, but how time is allocated to achieve this can vary greatly. The fuel strategies used by migrating bats are not well understood and have not been investigated during the spring when insectivorous bats face low food abundance. Migrating silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans (Le Conte, 1831)) were captured at a stopover site in Long Point, Ontario, Canada, in April and May of 2012–2014. We followed the movements of 40 bats outfitted with radio transmitters using an automated telemetry array and examined the effects of ambient temperature, fat stores, and sex on stopover duration. As seen previously in autumn, most bats departed the evening following capture, but one-third of bats used multiday stopovers. Extended stopover was associated with lower ambient temperature. There was no effect of sex or fat at capture on stopover departure probability. Bats captured closer to dawn had greater fat mass and lean mass than those captured early in the night, a trend indicative of fuel deposition at this site. This is the first study to provide evidence that bats use stopover habitat for refuelling.

Aircraft timely departure probability technique calculation

The article proposes the probability determination technique of timely aircraft departure, which is based on mathematical modeling method. It is proposed to use the indicator of timely departure probability, a calculation method of which is different from the known methods by taking into account the aircraft maintenance and repair system. This technique applies modern information technologies and the adopted approach is also supplemented with the mathematical model software implementation. The method of aircraft timely departure probability calculation is based on the model of the aircraft maintenance and repair system, utilizing the theory of mass service mathematical apparatus. The technique allows us to achieve the practical objectives of flight tests implementing aircraft maintainability evaluation and also complements the existing methodological support of the tests. The developed computer program provides the calculation of the required indicators for various values and combinations of factors which influence the result. Modeling was performed, and the study results of the main factors of probability effect, influencing timely departure are presented. Eventually the basic laws in solving the problem of aircraft timely departure, including interception of flying object are established.

Are we really Mama’s boys? How incomes affect Italians’ leaving-home decisions

The aim of this article is to identify the main determinants of Italians’ leaving-home decisions. We use data from the Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) by the Bank of Italy. The empirical study is performed by cross-section probit and panel-probit estimation. Contrary to the predominant literature’s claim, our findings unveil the positive and statistically significant effects of both children’s and parents’ income on the departure probability. We interpret this positive parents’ income effect as a signal for inter-household transfers. Finally, we distinguish by gender and find that while the young men’s leaving home is strongly dependent on such transfers, the same does not hold for young women. Keywords: leaving home, intergenerational