Production of Sugarcane Forecasting using ARIMAX Model

The main objective of this study is to analyze the production of sugarcane in India and to forecast the sugarcane production using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variable or Inputs model (ARIMAX). This model mainly focused in the area of forecasting and it gives the accurate prediction. Data has been collected from Sugarcane Breeding Institute, Coimbatore. The ARIMAX model was introduced by Box and Tiao in their study. At present this model was used minimum amount of people in their studies. When we compare with ARIMA model, the ARIMAX model gives the greater accuracy

OCCURRENCE, DAMAGE PATTERN AND STATUS OF THE RICE LEAF FOLDER CNAPHALOCROCIS RURALIS WALKER (LEPIDOPTERA: CRAMBIDAE) IN ERIANTHUS SPP. IN INDIA

SUMMARYWe investigated the occurrence and status of the leaf folder Cnaphalocrocis ruralis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in accessions of Erianthus spp. maintained as a part of the world germplasm collection at the Research Center of ICAR-Sugarcane Breeding Institute, Kannur, Kerala State, India. The nature, pattern, extent and year-to-year variation in damage were examined and accessions categorized based on relative incidence. The larvae of C. ruralis caused characteristic injury by feeding on chlorophyll bearing tissues leading to the formation of white and transparent streaks on the leaf blade. The grown-up larvae folded the leaf longitudinally with the adaxial surface inside the fold and exposing the abaxial surface, the edges being held in place by bands of silk thread at regular intervals. The length of leaf folds varied from 2.6 to 27.0 cm with a mean of 9.1 cm, which roughly constituted 7.3% of the mean length of the leaf blade. Leaf length, leaf width and leaf area were not correlated with either the leaf fold length or the number of webs. However, the leaf fold length was positively correlated with the number of webs. Attack rates (infestation rate) on cane basis (up to 69.0%) were generally higher than the damage rates (intensity) on leaf basis (up to 50.0%); infestation index ranged between 0.0 and 13.7%. Correlations between infestation rate and intensity varied among the three study years. Non-parametric analysis indicated significant differences among the three years for percent of infested canes and infestation index but not percent of damaged leaves. All accessions showed C. ruralis incidence in at least one experimental year, indicating that none of the accessions tested was immune to its attack. When all 74 accessions were considered on the basis of infestation index, 85.1% were placed in low and moderate categories and only 14.9% in high incidence category. Within the accessions of Erianthus spp., leaf area was not related to infestation rate of cane or damage rate of leaves but positively related to infestation index. The dynamics of the leaf folder in the predominantly paddy ecosystem were discussed in the light of its first occurrence in Erianthus spp. accessions in India and the world.

RESISTANCE OFSACCHARUMSPP. AGAINSTCHILO SACCHARIPHAGUS INDICUS(KAPUR) (LEPIDOPTERA: CRAMBIDAE) IN INDIA

SUMMARYAccessions of fourSaccharumspp. from the world collection of sugarcane germplasm maintained at the ICAR-Sugarcane Breeding Institute Research Center, Kannur, Kerala State, India, were screened againstChilo sacchariphagus indicus(Kapur) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), commonly known as internode borer. Observations on the progression of borer attack in the most susceptibleSaccharum officinarumindicated that the incidence began in the first fortnight of July, increased in the next 2 months and reached its peak in September. Thereafter, the incidence decreased in the next 2 months but reached its overall peak in December. Simple correlation coefficients between mean monthly weather parameters and borer incidence were not significant. Percent of canes attacked was significantly lower in 2011 than in 2012 forS. officinarum,Saccharum barberiandSaccharum sinensebut did not differ between the years forSaccharum robustum. Amongst the fourSaccharumspp.,S. robustumshowed the lowest borer incidence whereasS. officinarumrecorded the lowest attack intensity. Whilst infestation index showed the same trend as percent canes attacked, percent deadhearts did not differ amongst the fourSaccharumspp. Considering the 171 accessions evaluated, 29 (16.9%) accessions were resistant, 39 (22.8%) moderately resistant and 103 (60.2%) susceptible to internode borer. Out of the 39 accessions ofS. officinarum, none occupied the resistant category whereas 17.9% were in the moderately resistant category. InS. robustum, whilst nearly half (44.5%) the accessions emerged as resistant, a considerable number occupied the moderately resistant category. InS. barberi, no accession was resistant to the borer. InS. sinense, only one accession each represented resistant and moderately resistant categories. Plant morphological characters, yield and quality parameters did not show clear-cut relationship with the three infestation parameters.