Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave

An intense heat wave struck West Europe in early July 2015. The degree of anticipation of that event is assessed through the new CNRM near-real time subseasonal to seasonal forecast system. A warm anomaly over France was detected for the first week of July in all the successive forecasts issued in June, even up to one month ahead. On the other hand, the positive 500 hPa geopotential anomaly observed during that period was little anticipated. Despite the limited skill of the forecast system beyond twelve days, the relatively successful anticipation of that event pleads for a predictability study based on a multi-system assessment.

Atmospheric Responses to North Atlantic SST Anomalies in Idealized Experiments. Part I: Northern Hemispheric Circulation

Idealized model experiments using the NCAR CESM1.0.5 under equinox conditions are designed and performed to address two fundamental questions about the effects of the sea surface temperature (SST) variation associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on circulation and precipitation in North America and Europe: 1) Is the observed relationship between the AMO SST and the warm-season precipitation in North America a statistical coincidence? and 2) Why is the response of negative precipitation anomaly to warm SST in the AMO fairly uniform across most of North America, whereas the positive precipitation anomaly in the cold SST rather spotty? Model experiments are done with either a warm or cold SST anomaly in an aquaplanet, a planet with idealized continents, and a planet with both idealized continents and orography. Major results show that the atmospheric response to warm SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is fairly similar among the three sets of experiments. In the lower troposphere, the response has a significant negative geopotential anomaly from the SST anomaly center to the east and a positive geopotential anomaly in upstream North America. However, the response to the cold SST anomaly changes considerably among these experiments, particularly in North America. These results provide a foundation to answer the abovementioned two questions. First, they show that there is physical connection of the AMO SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in North America. Moreover, the rather stable atmospheric response to the warm SST may explain the observed largely consistent response to the warm SST anomaly. The varying responses of the atmosphere to the cold SST indicate a strong sensitivity of the atmosphere to other forcings during the cold SST anomaly in the North Atlantic. This sensitivity could explain the varying and less stable response of the atmosphere to the cold SST during the AMO.

Energetics of cyclogenesis events over the southern coast of Brazil

An analysis of 58 cyclogenesis cases occurred from 2003 to 2011 over the southern Brazilian coast is presented focusing on the energy cycle proposed. For this analysis the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data was utilized to create the composite fields of all selected days as also to that of transitional seasons (austral spring and autumn), when it was verified a high number of cyclones. In the analysis, a deepening of a pre-existing surface trough over Paraguay was observed two days (D-2) before the surface pressure had reached its minimum over the southern Brazilian coast. Typically, the cyclogenetic process begins on the southern Brazil coast and spreads in a NW-SE direction, strengthening along its path. On D-2 the jet stream is almost zonally oriented and then when the cyclone is completely formed (D0), this acquire a cyclonic curvature, with two cores: one strongest in the SE and the other one in the NW direction. As soon as the geopotential anomaly for short waves (Gh) is in phase with anomaly for long waves (Gl) on D-1, the PhKh term increases in magnitude, becoming the dominant one. During all evolution stages, the dominant terms were the baroclinic (PlPh and PhKh), followed by the barotropic (KlKh) term. The friction term (RKh) had a secondary role and the source/sink of non conservative energy and flux of the available potential energy (RPh) did not contributed to the deepening of the surface low, which is not depending of the convective activity inside it. Significant differences were not observed in the mechanisms of cyclogenesis development and maintenance during the transition months, except for a greater availability of kinetic (Kh) and potential (Ph) energy and baroclinic and barotropic conversion terms during the austral autumn.

Ring structure in the poleward boundary current off Western Australia in Summer

Data from five summer cruises off Western Australia are examined objectively using structure functions to establish principal length scales and amplitudes of mesoscale fields. Previous estimates of length scales using geopotential anomaly and geomagnetic electrokinetograph vectors as inputs to structure- function analyses gave length scales that differed by a factor of two. The present analysis shows that there are two length scales, which dominate in different parts of the flow, and this reconciles the two previous estimates. The shorter scale is λs = 157�25 km and the longer is λL = 309�28 km. Regions of strong large-scale currents have warm- and cold-core rings and mesoscale waves associated with them that assume the Rossby deformation scale. These are the λS structures. The longer, λL structures are found in regions of weak large-scale currents. Geopotential anomaly amplitudes and currents in the rings are, respectively, about 0.7 m2 s-2 (geopotential relief = 1 4 m2 s-1) and 70 cm s-1. Data from one summer cruise with a station density of approximately 12 per degree square are analysed in detail subjectively and the structure-function analysis is shown to be quantitatively meaningful. This cruise was near the shelf and shows the advection of low-salinity tropical water poleward over the slope in a narrow baroclinic current. Seaward cyclonic rings were associated with the current. The baroclinic structure of the current and of the rings is compatible with the winter behaviour of Lagrangian drifters released into the Leeuwin Current.

Influence of the gulf stream upon the short-term evolution of a warm-core ring

A large anticyclonic, Gulf Stream ring was surveyed during September 1981; two expendable bathythemographic (XBT) surveys, a conductivity-temperature-depth-oxygen (CTD-02) survey, and continuous underway measurements of velocity in the upper 100 m using an acoustic doppler velocimeter were conducted. The initial XBT survey revealed an elliptically shaped ring, over 240 km in diameter, with maximum surface velocities near 2 m s-1, situated well away from the Gulf Stream. However, the later CTD-02 and XBT surveys showed that over a 12-day period a northward meander of the Gulf Stream enveloped part of the ring. This caused a loss of water from the ring, resulting in both a decrease in ring diameter and a shoaling of the thermocline. Using the close relationship between geopotential anomaly and isotherm depths, approximately 33% of the geopotential anomaly signature of the ring is estimated to have been lost due to this event. Clearly, where such interactions with the Gulf Stream occur, they play an important role in the evolution of the warm-core rings.