Redating the Global Abrupt Sea-Level Rise during Meltwater Pulse-1A and Implications for Global Ice Mass Loss

<div><span>Model-based projections of ice-sheet thresholds and global sea-level rise are severely constrained by </span><span>instrumental observations being only decadal to century-long. As we improve our understanding of these processes, projections just a few years old are now considered conservative, raising concerns about our ability to successfully plan for abrupt future change. </span><span>Past periods of abrupt and extreme warming offer ‘process analogues’ that can provide new insights into the future rate of response of polar ice sheets to warming of the Earth system. The Last Termination </span><span>(20,000-10,000 years ago or 20-10 ka BP) </span>in the North Atlantic region was characterised by a series of abrupt climatic changes including rapid warming at 14.7 ka BP (the start of the “Bølling”, or GI-1 in the Greenland ice-core isotope stratigraphy) which was accompanied by an Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) in the south. Potentially important, during the onset of GI-1, warming persisted in the south for some 256±133 calendar years before the ACR, providing a period of time during which both polar regions experienced increasing temperatures. Sometime around the onset of GI-1 and the ACR, Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP-1A) formed an abrupt sea level rise of ~15 metres, and was coincident with a period of enhanced iceberg flux in the Southern Ocean. It seems likely the majority of the sea level rise came from the Northern Hemisphere – up to 5-6 metres from the Laurentide Ice Sheet – though the timing remains uncertain. The contribution of Antarctic Ice Sheets (AIS) to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise during MWP-1A range from ‘high-end’ scenarios (>10 m contributing over half of the total GMSL rise), to ‘low-end’ (scenarios with little to no contribution). Here we report the results of a multidisciplinary study, with refined age and Antarctic ice-sheet modelling of the MWP-1A sea-level rise. With the recently released international radiocarbon calibration curve (IntCal20), our Bayesian age modelling of terrestrial ages from flooded mangrove swamps suggests global <span>sea level rose across a mean age range of 14.58 ka BP to 14.42 ka BP, with a mean rate of sea-level rise of 0.94 metres per decade (14.97 metres over 160 years). Because the calibrated age range at 95% confidence overlaps in this age model, it is possible the 15 metre rise during MWP1A could have taken place essentially instantaneously. Even the most conservative age modelling we have undertaken indicates an extraordinary rapid rate of sea-level rise; two orders of magnitude larger than the mean rate of global sea level rise since 1993 (0.03±0.003 metres per decade). Our ice-sheet modelling suggests a substantial and rapid loss of Antarctic ice mass (mostly from the Weddell Sea Embayment and the Antarctic Peninsula), synchronous with warming and ice loss in the North Atlantic. The drivers and mechanisms of the observed near-synchronous interhemispheric changes will be discussed, with implications for the future.</span></div>

Extended enthalpy formulations in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) version 4.17: discontinuous conductivity and anisotropic streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method

The thermal state of an ice sheet is an important control on its past and future evolution. Some parts of the ice sheet may be polythermal, leading to discontinuous properties at the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). These discontinuities require a careful treatment in ice sheet models (ISMs). Additionally, the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling poses a problem for stabilization approaches in advection-dominated problems. Here, we present extended enthalpy formulations within the finite-element Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System model (ISSM) that show a better performance than earlier implementations. In a first polythermal-slab experiment, we found that the treatment of the discontinuous conductivities at the CTS with a geometric mean produces more accurate results compared to the arithmetic or harmonic mean. This improvement is particularly efficient when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second ice dome experiment, we find that the numerical solution is sensitive to the choice of stabilization parameters in the well-established streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method. As standard literature values for the SUPG stabilization parameter do not account for the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling, we propose a novel anisotropic SUPG (ASUPG) formulation. This formulation circumvents the problem of high aspect ratio by treating the horizontal and vertical directions separately in the stabilization coefficients. The ASUPG method provides accurate results for the thermodynamic equation on geometries with very small aspect ratios like ice sheets.

Extended enthalpy formulations in the ice flow model ISSM version 4.17: discontinuous conductivity and anisotropic SUPG

The thermal state of an ice sheet is an important control on its past and future evolution. Some parts of the ice sheets may be polythermal, leading to discontinuous properties at the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). These discontinuities require a careful treatment in ice sheet models (ISMs). Additionally, the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling poses a problem for stabilization approaches in advection dominated problems. Here, we present extended enthalpy formulations within the finite-element Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) that show a better performance to earlier implementations. In a first polythermal-slab experiment, we found that the treatment of the discontinuous conductivities at the CTS with a geometric mean produce more accurate results compared to the arithmetic or harmonic mean. This improvement is particularly efficient when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second ice dome experiment, we find that the numerical solution is sensitive to the choice of stabilization parameters in the well-established Streamline Upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method. As standard literature values for the SUPG stabilization parameter are not accounting for the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling, we propose a novel Anisotropic SUPG (ASUPG) formulation. This formulation circumvents the problem of high aspect-ratio by treating the horizontal and vertical directions separately in the stabilization coefficients. The ASUPG method provides accurate results for the thermodynamic equation on geometries with very small aspect ratios like ice sheets.

Geology datasets in North America, Greenland and surrounding areas for use with ice sheet models

The ice–substrate interface is an important boundary condition for ice sheet modelling. The substrate affects the ice sheet by allowing sliding through sediment deformation and accommodating the storage and drainage of subglacial water. We present three datasets on a 1 : 5 000 000 scale with different geological parameters for the region that was covered by the ice sheets in North America, including Greenland and Iceland. The first dataset includes the distribution of surficial sediments, which is separated into continuous, discontinuous and predominantly rock categories. The second dataset includes sediment grain size properties, which is divided into three classes: clay, silt and sand, based on the dominant grain size of the fine fraction of the glacial sediments. The third dataset is the generalized bedrock geology. We demonstrate the utility of these datasets for governing ice sheet dynamics by using an ice sheet model with a simulation that extends through the last glacial cycle. In order to demonstrate the importance of the basal boundary conditions for ice sheet modelling, we changed the shear friction angle to account for a weaker substrate and found changes up to 40 % in ice thickness compared to a reference run. Although incorporation of the ice–bed boundary remains model dependent, our dataset provides an observational baseline for improving a critical weakness in current ice sheet modelling (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.895889, Gowan et al., 2018b).

ATAT 1.1, the Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data

Earth's extant ice sheets are of great societal importance given their ongoing and potential future contributions to sea-level rise. Numerical models of ice sheets are designed to simulate ice-sheet behaviour in response to climate changes but to be improved require validation against observations. The direct observational record of extant ice sheets is limited to a few recent decades, but there is a large and growing body of geochronological evidence spanning millennia constraining the behaviour of palaeo-ice sheets. Hindcasts can be used to improve model formulations and study interactions between ice sheets, the climate system and landscape. However, ice-sheet modelling results have inherent quantitative errors stemming from parameter uncertainty and their internal dynamics, leading many modellers to perform ensemble simulations, while uncertainty in geochronological evidence necessitates expert interpretation. Quantitative tools are essential to examine which members of an ice-sheet model ensemble best fit the constraints provided by geochronological data. We present the Automated Timing Accordance Tool (ATAT version 1.1) used to quantify differences between model results and geochronological data on the timing of ice-sheet advance and/or retreat. To demonstrate its utility, we perform three simplified ice-sheet modelling experiments of the former British–Irish ice sheet. These illustrate how ATAT can be used to quantify model performance, either by using the discrete locations where the data originated together with dating constraints or by comparing model outputs with empirically derived reconstructions that have used these data along with wider expert knowledge. The ATAT code is made available and can be used by ice-sheet modellers to quantify the goodness of fit of hindcasts. ATAT may also be useful for highlighting data inconsistent with glaciological principles or reconstructions that cannot be replicated by an ice-sheet model.

ATAT 1.0, an Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data

Earth's extant ice sheets are of great societal importance given their ongoing and potential future contributions to sea-level rise. Numerical models of ice sheets are designed to simulate ice sheet behaviour in response to climate changes, but to be improved require validation against observations. The direct observational record of extant ice sheets is limited to a few recent decades, but there is a large and growing body of geochronological evidence spanning millennia constraining the behaviour of palaeo-ice sheets. Hindcasts can be used to improve model formulations and study interactions between ice sheets, the climate system and landscape. However, ice-sheet modelling results have inherent quantitative errors stemming from parameter uncertainty and their internal dynamics, leading many modellers to perform ensemble simulations, while uncertainty in geochronological evidence necessitates expert interpretation. Quantitative tools are essential to examine which members of an ice-sheet model ensemble best fit the constraints provided by geochronological data. We present an Automated Timing Accordance Tool (ATAT version 1.0) used to quantify differences between model results and geo-data on the timing of ice sheet advance and/or retreat. To demonstrate its utility, we perform three simplified ice-sheet modelling experiments of the former British-Irish Ice Sheet. These illustrate how ATAT can be used to quantify model performance, either by using the discrete locations where the data originated together with dating constraints or by comparing model outputs with empirically-derived reconstructions that have used these data along with wider expert knowledge. The ATAT code is made available and can be used by ice-sheet modellers to quantify the goodness of fit of hindcasts. ATAT may also be useful for highlighting data inconsistent with glaciological principles or reconstructions that cannot be replicated by an ice sheet model.