Comments: MS "Neutral equilibrium and forcing feedbacks in marine ice sheet modelling", by Rupert Gladstone, Yuwei Xia, and John Moore

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anonymous
2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 674-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.J. Fogwill ◽  
C.S.M. Turney ◽  
N.R. Golledge ◽  
D.H. Rood ◽  
K. Hippe ◽  
...  

AbstractDetermining the millennial-scale behaviour of marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is critical to improve predictions of the future contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Here high-resolution ice sheet modelling was combined with new terrestrial geological constraints (in situ14C and 10Be analysis) to reconstruct the evolution of two major ice streams entering the Weddell Sea over 20 000 years. The results demonstrate how marked differences in ice flux at the marine margin of the expanded Antarctic ice sheet led to a major reorganization of ice streams in the Weddell Sea during the last deglaciation, resulting in the eastward migration of the Institute Ice Stream, triggering a significant regional change in ice sheet mass balance during the early to mid Holocene. The findings highlight how spatial variability in ice flow can cause marked changes in the pattern, flux and flow direction of ice streams on millennial timescales in this marine ice sheet setting. Given that this sector of the WAIS is assumed to be sensitive to ocean-forced instability and may be influenced by predicted twenty-first century ocean warming, our ability to model and predict abrupt and extensive ice stream diversions is key to a realistic assessment of future ice sheet sensitivity.


2001 ◽  
Vol 47 (157) ◽  
pp. 271-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard C.A. Hindmarsh ◽  
E. Le Meur

AbstractMarine ice sheets with mechanics described by the shallow-ice approximation by definition do not couple mechanically with the shelf. Such ice sheets are known to have neutral equilibria. We consider the implications of this for their dynamics and in particular for mechanisms which promote marine ice-sheet retreat. The removal of ice-shelf buttressing leading to enhanced flow in grounded ice is discounted as a significant influence on mechanical grounds. Sea-level rise leading to reduced effective pressures under ice streams is shown to be a feasible mechanism for producing postglacial West Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but is inconsistent with borehole evidence. Warming thins the ice sheet by reducing the average viscosity but does not lead to grounding-line retreat. Internal oscillations either specified or generated via a MacAyeal–Payne thermal mechanism promote migration. This is a noise-induced drift phenomenon stemming from the neutral equilibrium property of marine ice sheets. This migration occurs at quite slow rates, but these are sufficiently large to have possibly played a role in the dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet after the glacial maximum. Numerical experiments suggest that it is generally true that while significant changes in thickness can be caused by spatially uniform changes, spatial variability coupled with dynamical variability is needed to cause margin movement.


2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3605-3615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rupert M. Gladstone ◽  
Yuwei Xia ◽  
John Moore

Abstract. Poor convergence with resolution of ice sheet models when simulating grounding line migration has been known about for over a decade. However, some of the associated numerical artefacts remain absent from the published literature. In the current study we apply a Stokes-flow finite-element marine ice sheet model to idealised grounding line evolution experiments. We show that with insufficiently fine model resolution, a region containing multiple steady-state grounding line positions exists, with one steady state per node of the model mesh. This has important implications for the design of perturbation experiments used to test convergence of grounding line behaviour with resolution. Specifically, the design of perturbation experiments can be under-constrained, potentially leading to a “false positive” result. In this context a false positive is an experiment that appears to achieve convergence when in fact the model configuration is not close to its converged state. We demonstrate a false positive: an apparently successful perturbation experiment (i.e. reversibility is shown) for a model configuration that is not close to a converged solution. If perturbation experiments are to be used in the future, experiment design should be modified to provide additional constraints to the initialisation and spin-up requirements. This region of multiple locally stable steady-state grounding line positions has previously been mistakenly described as neutral equilibrium. This distinction has important implications for understanding the impacts of discretising a forcing feedback involving grounding line position and basal friction. This forcing feedback cannot, in general, exist in a region of neutral equilibrium and could be the main cause of poor convergence in grounding line modelling.


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 963-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Dolan ◽  
S. J. Koenig ◽  
D. J. Hill ◽  
A. M. Haywood ◽  
R. M. DeConto

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher than today. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability; however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will provide the first assessment as to the ice sheet model dependency of ice sheet predictions for the mPWP. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present-day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.


Author(s):  
G. Durand ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
B. de Fleurian ◽  
T. Zwinger ◽  
E. Le Meur

Author(s):  
Jeremy C. Ely ◽  
Chris D. Clark ◽  
Richard C. A. Hindmarsh ◽  
Anna L. C. Hughes ◽  
Sarah L. Greenwood ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 569-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bonan ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
C. Ritz ◽  
V. Peyaud

Abstract. Estimating the contribution of Antarctica and Greenland to sea-level rise is a hot topic in glaciology. Good estimates rely on our ability to run a precisely calibrated ice sheet evolution model starting from a reliable initial state. Data assimilation aims to provide an answer to this problem by combining the model equations with observations. In this paper we aim to study a state-of-the-art ensemble Kalman filter (ETKF) to address this problem. This method is implemented and validated in the twin experiments framework for a shallow ice flowline model of ice dynamics. The results are very encouraging, as they show a good convergence of the ETKF (with localisation and inflation), even for small-sized ensembles.


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