Monitoring Emerging Issues: A Proposed Approach and Initial Test

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

Patient and caregiver engagement in the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) Health Care Horizon Scanning System (HCHSS) process

Objective The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) horizon scanning system is an early warning system for healthcare interventions in development that could disrupt standard care. We report preliminary findings from the patient engagement process. Methods The system involves broadly scanning many resources to identify and monitor interventions up to 3 years before anticipated entry into U.S. health care. Topic profiles are written on included interventions with late-phase trial data and circulated with a structured review form for stakeholder comment to determine disruption potential. Stakeholders include patients and caregivers recruited from credible community sources. They view an orientation video, comment on topic profiles, and take a survey about their experience. Results As of March 2020, 312 monitored topics (some of which were archived) were derived from 3,500 information leads; 121 met the criteria for topic profile development and stakeholder comment. We invited fifty-four patients and caregivers to participate; thirty-nine reviewed at least one report. Their perspectives informed analyst nominations for fourteen topics in two 2019 High Potential Disruption Reports. Thirty-four patient stakeholders completed the user-experience survey. Most agreed (68 percent) or somewhat agreed (26 percent) that they were confident they could provide useful comments. Ninety-four percent would recommend others to participate. Conclusions The system has successfully engaged patients and caregivers, who contributed unique and important perspectives that informed the selection of topics deemed to have high potential to disrupt clinical care. Most participants would recommend others to participate in this process. More research is needed to inform optimal patient and caregiver stakeholder recruitment and engagement methods and reduce barriers to participation.

Setting Up a Horizon Scanning System: A U.S. Federal Agency Example

Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable future. In addition, the horizon scanning system is supported by volunteers from within the Forest Service. By including participants from throughout the Forest Service, the project seeks to foster a culture of foresight within the organization, and eventually to develop a more forward looking organizational structure for the USFS and other natural resource management agencies. Lessons learned from the experience to date are shared as well as future challenges for keeping the horizon scanning system in good working order—current, relevant, and consistent.

OP107 The Stakeholder Involvement Strategy For Horizon Scanning In Korea

Introduction:As science advances the number of newly developed health technologies increases, but the lifecycles of health technologies becomes shorter. Thus, the importance of horizon scanning systems for identifying promising new health technologies and evaluating their potential impact is increasing. Engaging and collecting opinions from various stakeholders in this search process is very important. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for involving various stakeholders in all steps of the horizon scanning system in Korea.Methods:The horizon scanning system consists of five steps: identification, filtration, prioritization, assessment, and dissemination. We identified the stakeholders to be considered at each stage, and examined who would be involved and how. In addition, we planned how to synthesize and apply stakeholder opinions and to test the feasibility of these methods by using them in a horizon scanning system.Results:In the identification stage, developers, health professionals, and consumers suggested new and emerging health technologies to investigate. In the filtration stage, the person in charge of licensing judged the technologies based on appropriateness, innovativeness, and potential of market entry. In the prioritization phase, experts from eight to ten related fields (clinical, health technology and drugs, policy, methodology, patient organizations, etc.) participated and judged the technologies according to seven criteria (burden of disease, clinical impact, innovativeness, economic impact, acceptability, social impact, and evidence). In the assessment stage, between one and four clinical and methodological experts assessed the potential impact of the selected promising health technologies using seven evaluation items (unmet needs, improved patient health, health equity, change in medical behaviors, acceptability with respect to the patient and clinical condition, change in medical costs, and social, ethical, political, and cultural aspects). Before its dissemination, the final report was delivered to relevant industries for feedback (with particular emphasis on accuracy of data on the technology).Conclusions:There are many stakeholders in the horizon scanning system for new and emerging health technologies, depending on the healthcare system, policy, environment, etc. This study confirmed that stakeholder opinions on new technologies can vary. In addition, standards of social value judgment may change over time. It is therefore very important for horizon scanning systems to engage various stakeholders, collect their opinions, and make rational scientific decisions.