scholarly journals Setting Up a Horizon Scanning System: A U.S. Federal Agency Example

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Hines ◽  
David N. Bengston ◽  
Michael J. Dockry ◽  
Adam Cowart

Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable future. In addition, the horizon scanning system is supported by volunteers from within the Forest Service. By including participants from throughout the Forest Service, the project seeks to foster a culture of foresight within the organization, and eventually to develop a more forward looking organizational structure for the USFS and other natural resource management agencies. Lessons learned from the experience to date are shared as well as future challenges for keeping the horizon scanning system in good working order—current, relevant, and consistent.

2021 ◽  
pp. 194675672110273
Author(s):  
Andy Hines ◽  
Bes P. Baldwin ◽  
David N. Bengston ◽  
Jason Crabtree ◽  
Keri Christensen ◽  
...  

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.


2018 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 06005
Author(s):  
Arif Satria ◽  
Aceng Hidayat

The adoption of transdisciplinary approaches to address complexity and uncertainty of the problems has been recommended to formulate the effective solution. Although scientists have been working towards the direction, there have been still little integration on policy and concerted implementation to deal particularly with cross-cutting issues on food security, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy and other green development issues. Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) has recently adopted the concept of transdisciplinary and sustainability sciences to better integrate and utilize available resources and management strategies as stated in IPB’s Long-term Plan and in recent policy to establish Center for Transdisciplinary and Sustainability Sciences (IPB-CTSS). The drivers for this policy are actually the already established research, academic and community service consortia in which students, scientists, practitioners and policy makers have been working interdisciplinary towards effective solution for achieving better impacts of IPB Tridharma activities. We will discuss the lessons learned, challenges and opportunities identified as solid foundation to implement the concept for enhancing the better impacts of universities extended obligatory tasks on education, research, community services, innovation and business.


2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1268-1280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Marangi ◽  
Jelena Ivanovic ◽  
Giuseppa Pistritto

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (S1) ◽  
pp. 40-40
Author(s):  
Jooyeon Park ◽  
Eunjung Park ◽  
Chaemin Shin

Introduction:As science advances the number of newly developed health technologies increases, but the lifecycles of health technologies becomes shorter. Thus, the importance of horizon scanning systems for identifying promising new health technologies and evaluating their potential impact is increasing. Engaging and collecting opinions from various stakeholders in this search process is very important. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for involving various stakeholders in all steps of the horizon scanning system in Korea.Methods:The horizon scanning system consists of five steps: identification, filtration, prioritization, assessment, and dissemination. We identified the stakeholders to be considered at each stage, and examined who would be involved and how. In addition, we planned how to synthesize and apply stakeholder opinions and to test the feasibility of these methods by using them in a horizon scanning system.Results:In the identification stage, developers, health professionals, and consumers suggested new and emerging health technologies to investigate. In the filtration stage, the person in charge of licensing judged the technologies based on appropriateness, innovativeness, and potential of market entry. In the prioritization phase, experts from eight to ten related fields (clinical, health technology and drugs, policy, methodology, patient organizations, etc.) participated and judged the technologies according to seven criteria (burden of disease, clinical impact, innovativeness, economic impact, acceptability, social impact, and evidence). In the assessment stage, between one and four clinical and methodological experts assessed the potential impact of the selected promising health technologies using seven evaluation items (unmet needs, improved patient health, health equity, change in medical behaviors, acceptability with respect to the patient and clinical condition, change in medical costs, and social, ethical, political, and cultural aspects). Before its dissemination, the final report was delivered to relevant industries for feedback (with particular emphasis on accuracy of data on the technology).Conclusions:There are many stakeholders in the horizon scanning system for new and emerging health technologies, depending on the healthcare system, policy, environment, etc. This study confirmed that stakeholder opinions on new technologies can vary. In addition, standards of social value judgment may change over time. It is therefore very important for horizon scanning systems to engage various stakeholders, collect their opinions, and make rational scientific decisions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah J. Ossip ◽  
Sergio Díaz ◽  
Zahira Quiñones ◽  
Scott McIntosh ◽  
Ann Dozier ◽  
...  

Engaging partners for tobacco control within low and middle income countries (LMICs) at early stages of tobacco control presents both challenges and opportunities in the global effort to avert the one billion premature tobacco caused deaths projected for this century. The Dominican Republic (DR) is one such early stage country. The current paper reports on lessons learned from 12 years of partnered United States (US)-DR tobacco cessation research conducted through two NIH trials (Proyecto Doble T, PDT1 and 2). The projects began with a grassroots approach of working with interested communities to develop and test interventions for cessation and secondhand smoke reduction that could benefit the communities, while concurrently building local capacity and providing resources, data, and models of implementation that could be used to ripple upward to expand partnerships and tobacco intervention efforts nationally. Lessons learned are discussed in four key areas: partnering for research, logistical issues in setting up the research project, disseminating and national networking, and mentoring. Effectively addressing the global tobacco epidemic will require sustained focus on supporting LMIC infrastructures for tobacco control, drawing on lessons learned across partnered trials such as those reported here, to provide feasible and innovative approaches for addressing this modifiable public health crisis.


2019 ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Andy Hines ◽  
David N. Bengston ◽  
Michael J. Dockry ◽  
Adam Cowart

Author(s):  
Kelley Tipton ◽  
Jennifer De Lurio ◽  
Eileen Erinoff ◽  
Randy Hulshizer ◽  
Diane Robertson ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) horizon scanning system is an early warning system for healthcare interventions in development that could disrupt standard care. We report preliminary findings from the patient engagement process. Methods The system involves broadly scanning many resources to identify and monitor interventions up to 3 years before anticipated entry into U.S. health care. Topic profiles are written on included interventions with late-phase trial data and circulated with a structured review form for stakeholder comment to determine disruption potential. Stakeholders include patients and caregivers recruited from credible community sources. They view an orientation video, comment on topic profiles, and take a survey about their experience. Results As of March 2020, 312 monitored topics (some of which were archived) were derived from 3,500 information leads; 121 met the criteria for topic profile development and stakeholder comment. We invited fifty-four patients and caregivers to participate; thirty-nine reviewed at least one report. Their perspectives informed analyst nominations for fourteen topics in two 2019 High Potential Disruption Reports. Thirty-four patient stakeholders completed the user-experience survey. Most agreed (68 percent) or somewhat agreed (26 percent) that they were confident they could provide useful comments. Ninety-four percent would recommend others to participate. Conclusions The system has successfully engaged patients and caregivers, who contributed unique and important perspectives that informed the selection of topics deemed to have high potential to disrupt clinical care. Most participants would recommend others to participate in this process. More research is needed to inform optimal patient and caregiver stakeholder recruitment and engagement methods and reduce barriers to participation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 102 (5) ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Rick Hess ◽  
Pedro Noguera

In 2020, Rick Hess and Pedro Noguera engaged in a long-running correspondence that tackled many of the biggest questions in education — including topics like school choice, equity and diversity, testing, privatization, the achievement gap, social and emotional learning, and civics. They sought to unpack their disagreements, better understand one another’s perspectives, and seek places of agreement or points of common understanding. Their correspondence appears in their book, A Search for Common Ground: Conversations About the Toughest Questions in K-12 Education (Teachers College Press, 2021). In this article, they reflect on the exercise, what they learned from it, and what lessons it might offer to educators, education leaders, researchers, and policy makers.


2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Biedenkopf

This article argues that European Union (EU) risk regulation of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) was both a trigger and formative factor in the development of similar Chinese regulation. The attractiveness and global interdependence of the EU market in EEE impelled a response from Chinese policy-makers. Fostering the domestic industry's global competitiveness was one of the driving factors behind Chinese substance restriction regulation. Additionally, symbolic emulation and growing domestic environmental problems related to waste EEE infl uenced the Chinese policy agenda. Chinese substance restriction rules are not, however, a mere copy of EU regulation. The limited domestic capacity of the Chinese economy, administration, and legal structure to adopt policies similar to those of the EU explains, to a large extent, the emergence and partial persistence of differences between EU and Chinese risk regulation. In the course of the implementation and evaluation of Chinese substance restriction regulation, lessons learned from the EU’s experience increasingly contributed to shaping the policy, leading to growing convergence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (S1) ◽  
pp. 103-103
Author(s):  
Rose-Marie Dröes ◽  
Yvette Vermeer ◽  
Sébastien Libert ◽  
Sophie Gaber ◽  
Sarah Wallcook ◽  
...  

The Interdisciplinary Network for Dementia Using Current Technology, INDUCT, is a Marie Sklodowska Curie funded International Training Network that aims to develop a multi-disciplinary, inter-sectorial educational research framework for Europe to improve technology and care for people with dementia, and to provide the evidence to show how technology can improve the lives of people with dementia. Within INDUCT (2016-2020) 15 Early Stage Researchers worked on projects in the areas of Technology to support every day life; technology to promote meaningful activities; and health care technology.Three transversal objectives were adopted by INDUCT: 1) To determine the practical, cognitive and social factors needed to make technology more useable for people with dementia; 2) To evaluate the effectiveness of specific contemporary technology; and 3) To trace facilitators and barriers for implementation of technology in dementia care.The main recommendations resulting from the research projects are integrated in a web-based digital Best Practice Guidance on Human Interaction with Technology in Dementia which will be presented at the congress. The recommendations are meant to be helpful for different target groups, i.e. people with dementia, their formal and informal carers, policy makers, designers and researchers, who can easily select the for them relevant recommendations in the Best Practice Guidance by means of a selection tool. The main aim of the Best Practice Guidance is to improve the development, usage and implementation of technology for people with dementia in the three mentioned technology areas.This Best Practice Guidance is the result of the intensive collaborative partnership of INDUCT with academic and non-academic partners as well as the involvement of representatives of the different target groups throughout the INDUCT project.Acknowledgements: The research presented was carried out within the Marie Sklodowska Curie International Training Network (ITN) action, H2020-MSCA-ITN-2015, grant agreement number 676265.


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