Setting Up the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning System

Introduction:As science advances the number of newly developed health technologies increases, but the lifecycles of health technologies becomes shorter. Thus, the importance of horizon scanning systems for identifying promising new health technologies and evaluating their potential impact is increasing. Engaging and collecting opinions from various stakeholders in this search process is very important. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for involving various stakeholders in all steps of the horizon scanning system in Korea.Methods:The horizon scanning system consists of five steps: identification, filtration, prioritization, assessment, and dissemination. We identified the stakeholders to be considered at each stage, and examined who would be involved and how. In addition, we planned how to synthesize and apply stakeholder opinions and to test the feasibility of these methods by using them in a horizon scanning system.Results:In the identification stage, developers, health professionals, and consumers suggested new and emerging health technologies to investigate. In the filtration stage, the person in charge of licensing judged the technologies based on appropriateness, innovativeness, and potential of market entry. In the prioritization phase, experts from eight to ten related fields (clinical, health technology and drugs, policy, methodology, patient organizations, etc.) participated and judged the technologies according to seven criteria (burden of disease, clinical impact, innovativeness, economic impact, acceptability, social impact, and evidence). In the assessment stage, between one and four clinical and methodological experts assessed the potential impact of the selected promising health technologies using seven evaluation items (unmet needs, improved patient health, health equity, change in medical behaviors, acceptability with respect to the patient and clinical condition, change in medical costs, and social, ethical, political, and cultural aspects). Before its dissemination, the final report was delivered to relevant industries for feedback (with particular emphasis on accuracy of data on the technology).Conclusions:There are many stakeholders in the horizon scanning system for new and emerging health technologies, depending on the healthcare system, policy, environment, etc. This study confirmed that stakeholder opinions on new technologies can vary. In addition, standards of social value judgment may change over time. It is therefore very important for horizon scanning systems to engage various stakeholders, collect their opinions, and make rational scientific decisions.

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Setting Up a Horizon Scanning System: A U.S. Federal Agency Example

World Futures Review ◽

10.1177/1946756717749613 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 136-151 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Andy Hines ◽

David N. Bengston ◽

Michael J. Dockry ◽

Adam Cowart

Keyword(s):

Early Stage ◽

Forest Service ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Scanning System ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

Look Ahead ◽

Challenges And Opportunities ◽

Near Term ◽

Horizon Scanning System

Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable future. In addition, the horizon scanning system is supported by volunteers from within the Forest Service. By including participants from throughout the Forest Service, the project seeks to foster a culture of foresight within the organization, and eventually to develop a more forward looking organizational structure for the USFS and other natural resource management agencies. Lessons learned from the experience to date are shared as well as future challenges for keeping the horizon scanning system in good working order—current, relevant, and consistent.

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Patient and caregiver engagement in the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) Health Care Horizon Scanning System (HCHSS) process

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s026646232000207x ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Kelley Tipton ◽

Jennifer De Lurio ◽

Eileen Erinoff ◽

Randy Hulshizer ◽

Diane Robertson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Outcomes Research ◽

Clinical Care ◽

Late Phase ◽

High Potential ◽

Scanning System ◽

Patient Centered ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

Horizon Scanning System ◽

Research Institute

Abstract Objective The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) horizon scanning system is an early warning system for healthcare interventions in development that could disrupt standard care. We report preliminary findings from the patient engagement process. Methods The system involves broadly scanning many resources to identify and monitor interventions up to 3 years before anticipated entry into U.S. health care. Topic profiles are written on included interventions with late-phase trial data and circulated with a structured review form for stakeholder comment to determine disruption potential. Stakeholders include patients and caregivers recruited from credible community sources. They view an orientation video, comment on topic profiles, and take a survey about their experience. Results As of March 2020, 312 monitored topics (some of which were archived) were derived from 3,500 information leads; 121 met the criteria for topic profile development and stakeholder comment. We invited fifty-four patients and caregivers to participate; thirty-nine reviewed at least one report. Their perspectives informed analyst nominations for fourteen topics in two 2019 High Potential Disruption Reports. Thirty-four patient stakeholders completed the user-experience survey. Most agreed (68 percent) or somewhat agreed (26 percent) that they were confident they could provide useful comments. Ninety-four percent would recommend others to participate. Conclusions The system has successfully engaged patients and caregivers, who contributed unique and important perspectives that informed the selection of topics deemed to have high potential to disrupt clinical care. Most participants would recommend others to participate in this process. More research is needed to inform optimal patient and caregiver stakeholder recruitment and engagement methods and reduce barriers to participation.

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Monitoring Emerging Issues: A Proposed Approach and Initial Test

World Futures Review ◽

10.1177/19467567211027350 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 194675672110273

Author(s):

Andy Hines ◽

Bes P. Baldwin ◽

David N. Bengston ◽

Jason Crabtree ◽

Keri Christensen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Project Work ◽

Scanning System ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Strategic Response ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

The Future ◽

Emerging Issues ◽

Monitoring The Future ◽

Set Up ◽

Horizon Scanning System

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

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MAKING PROCESSES RELIABLE: A VALIDATED PUBMED SEARCH STRATEGY FOR IDENTIFYING NEW OR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462312000578 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 452-459 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Leonora Varela-Lema ◽

Jeanette Punal-Riobóo ◽

Beatriz Casal Acción ◽

Alberto Ruano-Ravina ◽

Marisa López García

Keyword(s):

Search Strategy ◽

Emerging Technologies ◽

Scanning System ◽

Free Text ◽

Medline Search ◽

Health Technologies ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

Wide Range ◽

Pubmed Search ◽

Bibliographic Search

Background and Objectives:Horizon scanning systems need to handle a wide range of sources to identify new or emerging health technologies. The objective of this study is to develop a validated Medline bibliographic search strategy (PubMed search engine) to systematically identify new or emerging health technologies.Methods:The proposed Medline search strategy combines free text terms commonly used in article titles to denote innovation within index terms that make reference to the specific fields of interest. Efficacy was assessed by running the search over a period of 1 year (2009) and analyzing its retrieval performance (number and characteristics). For comparison purposes, all article abstracts published during 2009 in six preselected key research journals and eight high impact surgery journals were scanned. Sensitivity was defined as the proportion of relevant new or emerging technologies published in key journals that would be identified in the search strategy within the first 2 years of publication.Results:The search yielded 6,228 abstracts of potentially new or emerging technologies. Of these, 459 were classified as new or emerging (383 truly new or emerging and 76 new indications). The scanning of 12,061 journal abstracts identified 35 relevant new or emerging technologies. Of these, twenty-nine were located within the Medline search strategy during the first 2 years of publication (sensitivity = 83 percent).Conclusions:The current search strategy, validated against key journals, has demonstrated to be effective for horizon scanning. Even though it can require adaptations depending on the scope of the horizon scanning system, it could serve to simplify and standardize scanning processes.

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Towards greater impact in health technology assessment: horizon scanning for new and emerging technologies in Singapore

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462320000343 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (4) ◽

pp. 304-310

Author(s):

Wan Qing Wong ◽

Liang Lin ◽

Hong Ju ◽

Kwong Ng

Keyword(s):

Healthcare System ◽

Scanning System ◽

Traffic Light ◽

Early Assessment ◽

Health Technologies ◽

Gene Therapies ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

Funding Policies ◽

Cell And Gene Therapy ◽

Filtration Step

ObjectivesTo alert policy makers early about emerging health technologies that could significantly impact the healthcare system at the clinical, financial and organizational levels, the Agency for Care Effectiveness (ACE) in Singapore established a horizon scanning system (HSS) in 2019. This paper describes the development of the ACE HSS and showcases its application with cell and gene therapy products as the first example.MethodsA literature review of existing HSS methods, including the processes of the EuroScan International Network and other overseas horizon scanning agencies, was done to inform the development of our horizon scanning framework. The framework was first applied to the new and emerging cell and gene therapies.ResultsIdentification sources, filtration and prioritization criteria, and horizon scanning outputs for the HSS were developed in alignment to international best practices, with recommendations for technology uptake represented by a traffic light system. For the first horizon scanning exercise on cell and gene therapies, forty therapies passed the filtration step, of which eight were prioritized for further assessment. The few early reports developed were used to inform and prepare the healthcare system for their potential introduction, particularly in terms of the need to develop health and funding policies.ConclusionsEarly assessment of prioritized topics has provided support for strategic efforts within the Ministry of Health. Given that ACE's horizon scanning program is still in its infancy, the framework will continue to evolve to ensure relevance to our stakeholders so that it remains fit for purpose for our healthcare system.

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PP109 Horizon Scanning For Information Providing In Brazil

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462317002707 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 33 (S1) ◽

pp. 123-124

Author(s):

Pollyanna Gomes ◽

Avila Vidal ◽

Andrea Brígida de Souza ◽

Vania Canuto ◽

Clarice Petramale

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Decision Making ◽

Latin American ◽

National Committee ◽

Scanning System ◽

Specific Information ◽

Ministry Of Health ◽

Horizon Scanning ◽

Definition Of ◽

The Right

INTRODUCTION:The last five years represented an advanced season for the establishment and reinforcement of the Brazilian Ministry of Health's Horizon Scanning System. The recognition of Horizon Scanning (HS) as a tool for evidence- based decision making has been reflected in the requests for information directed to the Horizon Scanning's team. These requests for information about new and emerging technologies come from cabinets offices and thematic departments of the Ministry of Health. The methodology of Horizon Scanning assessments described in EuroScan's toolkit1 has been applied to guarantee that the information reach stakeholders at the right time. The National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC) was accepted as a member of EuroScan (1) in 2016, and this represented another important step of Brazil's HS System.METHODS:In order to provide the specific information requested, the assessments of the technologies are done. So, databases on ongoing clinical trials, commercial pharmaceutical database, registration and licensing sites, proceedings and abstracts of scientific conferences and scientific databases are checked to collect the information. The extent and depth of the assessments depends on the stakeholders needs and time available to complete them. However, information as how the technology works, the clinical burden of disease, if there are available technologies in the Brazilian Public Health System to treat the disease, safety and effectiveness data, the regulatory status in the world as well costs, social, ethical and legal concerns are commonly given.RESULTS:The information provided using the HS methodology is used by stakeholders for several purposes as to defend the Ministry of Health in the Courts in the typical Latin American phenomena called “judicialization of health;” in assistance of the decision making of incorporation of technologies by the Brazilian Public Health and to support the definition of which medicines would be more strategic for establishment of Public-private partnerships for development of medicines, the named “Productive Development Partnerships (PDPs)”.CONCLUSIONS:The assessment of the technologies and the prediction of its potential for impact has helped the health policy making process in Brazil.

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Tandem scanning confocal light microscopy as compared with x-ray diffraction for characterizing the behavior of clays in fluid-saturated petroleum reservoir rock

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100152719 ◽

1989 ◽

Vol 47 ◽

pp. 148-149

Author(s):

C.J. Stuart ◽

B.E. Viani ◽

J. Walker ◽

T.H. Levesque

Keyword(s):

Light Microscopy ◽

Image Plane ◽

Reservoir Rock ◽

Depth Of Field ◽

Objective Lens ◽

Scanning System ◽

Light Sources ◽

Petroleum Reservoir ◽

Image Recording ◽

Scan Speed

Many techniques of imaging used to characterize petroleum reservoir rocks are applied to dehydrated specimens. In order to directly study behavior of fines in reservoir rock at conditions similar to those found in-situ these materials need to be characterized in a fluid saturated state.Standard light microscopy can be used on wet specimens but depth of field and focus cannot be obtained; by using the Tandem Scanning Confocal Microscope (TSM) images can be produced from thin focused layers with high contrast and resolution. Optical sectioning and extended focus images are then produced with the microscope. The TSM uses reflected light, bulk specimens, and wet samples as opposed to thin section analysis used in standard light microscopy. The TSM also has additional advantages: the high scan speed, the ability to use a variety of light sources to produce real color images, and the simple, small size scanning system. The TSM has frame rates in excess of normal TV rates with many more lines of resolution. This is accomplished by incorporating a method of parallel image scanning and detection. The parallel scanning in the TSM is accomplished by means of multiple apertures in a disk which is positioned in the intermediate image plane of the objective lens. Thousands of apertures are distributed in an annulus, so that as the disk is spun, the specimen is illuminated simultaneously by a large number of scanning beams with uniform illumination. The high frame speeds greatly simplify the task of image recording since any of the normally used devices such as photographic cameras, normal or low light TV cameras, VCR or optical disks can be used without modification. Any frame store device compatible with a standard TV camera may be used to digitize TSM images.

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X-ray mapping without STEM

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s042482010017027x ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 52 ◽

pp. 508-509

Author(s):

Judith M. Brock ◽

Max T. Otten

Keyword(s):

Life Science ◽

Materials Science ◽

Chemical Elements ◽

Full Description ◽

Scanning System ◽

Elemental Distribution ◽

X Ray ◽

Transmission Electron ◽

Distribution Of Elements ◽

Made In

A knowledge of the distribution of chemical elements in a specimen is often highly useful. In materials science specimens features such as grain boundaries and precipitates generally force a certain order on mental distribution, so that a single profile away from the boundary or precipitate gives a full description of all relevant data. No such simplicity can be assumed in life science specimens, where elements can occur various combinations and in different concentrations in tissue. In the latter case a two-dimensional elemental-distribution image is required to describe the material adequately. X-ray mapping provides such of the distribution of elements.The big disadvantage of x-ray mapping hitherto has been one requirement: the transmission electron microscope must have the scanning function. In cases where the STEM functionality – to record scanning images using a variety of STEM detectors – is not used, but only x-ray mapping is intended, a significant investment must still be made in the scanning system: electronics that drive the beam, detectors for generating the scanning images, and monitors for displaying and recording the images.

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