Maximum magnitude of subduction earthquakes along the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench estimated from seismic moment conservation

SUMMARY We estimated the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench subduction zone with a method based on the conservation of seismic moment and the record of interplate seismicity from 1977 to 2017. The key point of this method is to base calculations on the tectonic moment rate instead of the total seismic moment rate. We modeled a seismic-moment-frequency distribution for the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench on the basis of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) law, the formula published by Utsu in 1974, the gamma distribution, and the tapered G–R law. We estimated the maximum magnitude along the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench as ∼10 under the truncated G–R law and ∼11 under Utsu's formula, although the latter may be an overestimate. Therefore, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.2, may not be the largest possible event in this area. The recurrence interval for magnitude 10 events based on the truncated G–R law is 4000 yr. Although these two models perform equally well in terms of Akaike Information Criterion, the range of the 95 per cent confidence level is consistently narrower for the truncated G–R law than for Utsu's formula. The estimated maximum magnitude depends not only on the model used, but also on the parameters that constitute the tectonic moment. It is essential to accumulate more seismic data and achieve more precise estimates of tectonic moment to improve estimates of maximum magnitude.

The 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu Earthquake: A Supershear Rupture Event Constrained by InSAR and Broadband Regional Seismograms

The 28 September 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake occurred at a triple junction zone where the Philippine Sea, Australian, and Sunda plates are convergent. Here, we utilized Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data together with broadband regional seismograms to investigate the source geometry and rupture kinematics of this earthquake. Results showed that the 2018 Palu earthquake ruptured a fault plane with a relatively steep dip angle of ~85°. The preferred rupture model demonstrated that the earthquake was a supershear event from early on, with an average rupture speed of 4.1 km/s, which is different from the common supershear events that typically show an initial subshear rupture. The rupture expanded rapidly (~4.1 km/s) from the hypocenter and propagated bilaterally towards the north and south along the strike direction during the first 8 s, and then to the south. Four visible asperities were ruptured during the slip pulse propagation, which resulted in four significant deformation lobes in the coseismic interferogram. The maximum slip of 6.5 m was observed to the south of the city of Palu, and the total seismic moment released within 40 s was 2.64 × 1020 N·m, which was equivalent to Mw 7.55. Our results shed some light on the transtensional tectonism in Sulawesi, given that the 2018 Palu earthquake was dominated by left-lateral strike slip (slip maxima is 6.2 m) and that some significant normal faulting components (slip maxima is ~3 m) were resolved as well.

Further studies on the focal mechanism and source rupture process of the 2012 Haida Gwaii, Canada, 7.8 moment magnitude earthquake

The 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, Canada, earthquake with a moment magnitude (MW) of 7.8 occurred along an east-dipping poorly known thrust fault beneath the Queen Charlotte Terrace. It was the largest thrust event ever recorded in this dominated by strike-slip motion region. We studied the focal mechanism and the source rupture process for the event. The retrieved geometric parameters of the fault plane were a strike of 329°, dip of 24°, and slip of 114°. The isotropic moment was negative, and its value was about one-fifth of the total seismic moment released. The earthquake ruptured an area of about 160 km × 60 km, and major slip occurred in an area of about 100 km × 60 km. The maximum slip was about 5.8 m. The slip distribution on the fault plane was highly heterogeneous, with four slip patches. The main slip lay on a large zone above the hypocentre to the sea floor. The maximum and average stress drops calculated using the Brune model were 16.5 and 4.6 MPa, respectively. The major rupture occurred about 10 s after the rupture initiation, and lasted about 25 s. During a subducting earthquake, the leading edge of the overriding plate is assumed to spring seaward and upward, while the landward portion is assumed to extend and drop down, and the generated rapid motions set off a tsunami. The falling-down process seems to be consistent with a negative isotropic moment.

Geodetic model of the 2015 April 25 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake and Mw 7.3 aftershock estimated from InSAR and GPS data

We map the complete surface deformation of 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake and its Mw 7.3 aftershock with two parallel ALOS2 descending ScanSAR paths’ and two ascending Stripmap paths’ images. The coseismic fault-slip model from a combined inversion of InSAR and GPS data reveals that this event is a reverse fault motion, with a slight right-lateral strike-slip component. The maximum thrust-slip and right-lateral strike-slip values are 5.7 and 1.2 m, respectively, located at a depth of 7–15 km, southeast to the epicentre. The total seismic moment 7.55 × 1020 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 7.89, is similar to the seismological estimates. Fault slips of both the main shock and the largest aftershock are absent from the upper thrust shallower than 7 km, indicating that there is a locking lower edge of Himalayan Main Frontal Thrust and future seismic disaster is not unexpected in this area. We also find that the energy released in this earthquake is much less than the accumulated moment deficit over the past seven centuries estimated in previous studies, so the region surrounding Kathmandu is still under the threaten of seismic hazards.

Seismological Aspects of the 2003 Bam, Iran, Earthquake and Its Aftershock Analysis

The source mechanism derived from the inversion of long-period body waves revealed that the earthquake occurred on a north-south trending strike-slip fault with a thrust component. According to the source model estimated in this study, the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake was a multiple event formed by two subevents. The rupture following subevent one started at a depth of about 8 km. However, the depth of subevent two is about 10 km. The total seismic moment estimated from inversion processes is 8.34×1018Nm. The pulse duration of subevent one and subevent two was determined from source time function as 1.7 s and 0.8 s, respectively. Corner frequency and source radius have been calculated by using major pulse duration. The corner frequency and source radius are 0.187 Hz and 5.47 km, respectively. The aftershock events distributed along a 30 km north-south striking fault. The focal depths of aftershocks distribution show a nearly vertical alignment of aftershocks located between 6 and 20 km depth. The focal mechanism solutions of aftershocks indicate right-lateral strike-slip faulting on a north-south trending fault, parallel to the previously known Bam fault trace in the east of Bam.

Rupture process of the 1980 Izu-Hanto-Toho-Oki earthquake deduced from strong motion seismograms

The 1980 Izu-Hanto-Toho-Oki earthquake is studied in detail using near-field strong motion seismograms recorded at Japan Meteorological Agency stations. A seismogram inversion method is applied to deduce the dislocation distribution and the character of rupture propagation during this earthquake. This earthquake involves left-lateral strike-slip motion on the almost vertical plane with a strike of N10°W. The fault plane is shallower than about 12 km in depth, and the length is about 20 km. The large dislocation (large seismic moment) occurs near the hypocenter and at the southern end of the fault plane. The rupture propagates southward from the central part of the fault plane and spreads to the shallow area of the northern part of the fault plane after a delay of about 5 sec relative to the initiation of this earthquake. The total seismic moment is about 7 ×1025 dyne·cm. The aftershocks of magnitude equal to or greater than 4.0 take place in the areas where high stresses are expected to remain after this earthquake. The mechanical weakness of small submarine monogenetic volcanoes which are located above the source region seems to affect the rupture process of this earthquake.