iCompare: A Package for Automated Comparison of Solar System Integrators*

We present a tool for the comparison and validation of the integration packages suitable for Solar System dynamics. iCompare, written in Python, compares the ephemeris prediction accuracy of a suite of commonly-used integration packages (JPL/HORIZONS, OpenOrb, OrbFit at present). It integrates a set of test particles with orbits picked to explore both usual and unusual regions in Solar System phase space and compares the computed to reference ephemerides. The results are visualized in an intuitive dashboard. This allows for the assessment of integrator suitability as a function of population, as well as monitoring their performance from version to version (a capability needed for the Rubin Observatory’s software pipeline construction efforts). We provide the code on GitHub with a readily runnable version in Binder (https://github.com/dirac-institute/iCompare).

Initial results from coring at Prees, Cheshire Basin, UK, and future plans for the Early Jurassic Earth System and Timescale Project (JET)

<p>The Prees-2 fully cored borehole was drilled in November and December 2020 and captures a thick biostratigraphically complete, hemipelagic marine record for the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and for the Hettangian, Sinemurian and lower Pliensbachian stages.  The borehole is sited at the centre of the Prees Jurassic outlier in the Cheshire Basin, Shropshire, England. The overall JET project, funded principally by ICDP, NERC, and DFG, aims to construct a fully integrated age model and timescale for the Early Jurassic combining new data from the Prees core with data generated from the historic Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) borehole in NW Wales.  The new timescale and a wide range of geological data are then being used to reconstruct and understand diverse aspects of the Early Jurassic Earth system, and to provide constraints on astronomical solutions for solar system dynamics over this crucial time interval that links oceanic records of the Cenozoic and later Mesozoic to continental records of the Triassic.  The Prees-2 borehole was drilled to a total depth of 656 m below rig floor, and the Early Jurassic succession comprises mudstone, limestone, and siltstone, which is fossiliferous throughout and includes many biostratigraphically significant ammonite fossils. Diverse trace fossil assemblages are also observed, and lithological cyclicity is apparent through the Jurassic on a scale of about one metre, compatible with interpretations of Milankovitch cyclicity in the precession band based on analysis of Mochras core. Core recovery was largely at 100% and the core quality is excellent. A suite of downhole logs was obtained and ongoing work at the British Geological Survey Core Scanning Facility is generating a high-quality, high-resolution geochemical and geophysical dataset that will provide a fundamental basis for further core-log integration, astrochronology and palaeoenvironmental work.</p>

Memories of past close encounters in extreme trans-Neptunian space: Finding unseen planets using pure random searches

Context. The paths followed by the known extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) effectively avoid direct gravitational perturbations from the four giant planets, yet their orbital eccentricities are in the range between 0.69−0.97. Solar system dynamics studies show that such high values of the eccentricity can be produced via close encounters or secular perturbations. In both cases, the presence of yet-to-be-discovered trans-Plutonian planets is required. Recent observational evidence cannot exclude the existence, at 600 AU from the Sun, of a planet of five Earth masses. Aims. If the high eccentricities of the known ETNOs are the result of relatively recent close encounters with putative planets, the mutual nodal distances of sizeable groups of ETNOs with their assumed perturber may still be small enough to be identifiable geometrically. In order to confirm or reject this possibility, we used Monte Carlo random search techniques. Methods. Two arbitrary orbits may lead to close encounters when their mutual nodal distance is sufficiently small. We generated billions of random planetary orbits with parameters within the relevant ranges and computed the mutual nodal distances with a set of randomly generated orbits with parameters consistent with those of the known ETNOs and their uncertainties. We monitored which planetary orbits had the maximum number of potential close encounters with synthetic ETNOs and we studied the resulting distributions. Results. We provide narrow ranges for the orbital parameters of putative planets that may have experienced orbit-changing encounters with known ETNOs. Some sections of the available orbital parameter space are strongly disfavored by our analysis. Conclusions. Our calculations suggest that more than one perturber is required if scattering is the main source of orbital modification for the known ETNOs. Perturbers might not be located farther than 600 AU and they have to follow moderately eccentric and inclined orbits to be capable of experiencing close encounters with multiple known ETNOs.

Monitoring Jovian Orbital Resonances of a Spacecraft: Classical and Relativistic Effects

Orbital resonances continue to be one of the most difficult problems in celestial mechanics. They have been studied in connection with the so-called Kirkwood gaps in the asteroid belt for many years. On the other hand, resonant trans-Neptunian objects are also an active area of research in Solar System dynamics, as are the recently discovered resonances in extrasolar planetary systems. A careful monitoring of the trajectories of these objects is hindered by the small size of asteroids or the large distances of the trans-Neptunian bodies. In this paper, we propose a mission concept, called CHRONOS (after the greek god of time), in which a spacecraft could be sent to with the initial condition of resonance with Jupiter in order to study the future evolution of its trajectory. We show that radio monitoring of these trajectories could allow for a better understanding of the initial stages of the evolution of resonant trajectories and the associated relativistic effects.

A pulsar-based time-scale from the International Pulsar Timing Array

ABSTRACT We have constructed a new time-scale, TT(IPTA16), based on observations of radio pulsars presented in the first data release from the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We used two analysis techniques with independent estimates of the noise models for the pulsar observations and different algorithms for obtaining the pulsar time-scale. The two analyses agree within the estimated uncertainties and both agree with TT(BIPM17), a post-corrected time-scale produced by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). We show that both methods could detect significant errors in TT(BIPM17) if they were present. We estimate the stability of the atomic clocks from which TT(BIPM17) is derived using observations of four rubidium fountain clocks at the US Naval Observatory. Comparing the power spectrum of TT(IPTA16) with that of these fountain clocks suggests that pulsar-based time-scales are unlikely to contribute to the stability of the best time-scales over the next decade, but they will remain a valuable independent check on atomic time-scales. We also find that the stability of the pulsar-based time-scale is likely to be limited by our knowledge of solar-system dynamics, and that errors in TT(BIPM17) will not be a limiting factor for the primary goal of the IPTA, which is to search for the signatures of nano-Hertz gravitational waves.

Studying the Solar system dynamics using pulsar timing arrays and the LINIMOSS dynamical model

ABSTRACT Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) can be used to study the Solar system ephemeris (SSE), the errors of which can lead to correlated timing residuals and significantly contribute to the PTA noise budget. Most Solar system studies with PTAs assume the dominance of the term from the shift of the Solar system barycentre (SSB). However, it is unclear to which extent this approximation can be valid, since the perturbations on the planetary orbits may become important as data precision keeps increasing. To better understand the effects of SSE uncertainties on pulsar timing, we develop the linimoss dynamical model of the Solar system, based on the SSE of Guangyu Li. Using the same input parameters as DE435, the calculated planetary positions by linimoss are compatible with DE435 at centimetre level over a 20 yr timespan, which is sufficiently precise for pulsar-timing applications. We utilize linimoss to investigate the effects of SSE errors on pulsar timing in a fully dynamical way, by perturbing one SSE parameter per trial and examining the induced timing residuals. For the outer planets, the timing residuals are dominated by the SSB shift, as assumed in previous work. For the inner planets, the variations in the orbit of the Earth are more prominent, making previously adopted assumptions insufficient. The power spectra of the timing residuals have complex structures, which may introduce false signals in the search of gravitational waves. We also study how to infer the SSE parameters using PTAs, and calculate the accuracy of parameter estimation.

Proterozoic Milankovitch cycles and the history of the solar system

The geologic record of Milankovitch climate cycles provides a rich conceptual and temporal framework for evaluating Earth system evolution, bestowing a sharp lens through which to view our planet’s history. However, the utility of these cycles for constraining the early Earth system is hindered by seemingly insurmountable uncertainties in our knowledge of solar system behavior (including Earth–Moon history), and poor temporal control for validation of cycle periods (e.g., from radioisotopic dates). Here we address these problems using a Bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively link astronomical theory with geologic observation, allowing a reconstruction of Proterozoic astronomical cycles, fundamental frequencies of the solar system, the precession constant, and the underlying geologic timescale, directly from stratigraphic data. Application of the approach to 1.4-billion-year-old rhythmites indicates a precession constant of 85.79 ± 2.72 arcsec/year (2σ), an Earth–Moon distance of 340,900 ± 2,600 km (2σ), and length of day of 18.68 ± 0.25 hours (2σ), with dominant climatic precession cycles of ∼14 ky and eccentricity cycles of ∼131 ky. The results confirm reduced tidal dissipation in the Proterozoic. A complementary analysis of Eocene rhythmites (∼55 Ma) illustrates how the approach offers a means to map out ancient solar system behavior and Earth–Moon history using the geologic archive. The method also provides robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods, and derived astronomical timescales. As a consequence, the temporal resolution of ancient Earth system processes is enhanced, and our knowledge of early solar system dynamics is greatly improved.