Objective: For type 1 diabetic patients, accurate adjustment of insulin treatment to physical activity (PA) is a challenging open problem. Glucose uptake by the exercising muscles increases acutely, causing increased hepatic glucose production to maintain glucose homeostasis. Meanwhile, insulin sensitivity is elevated for a prolonged period to drive glycogen repletion during recovery. These processes strongly depend on PA duration and intensity, making their combined effects difficult to predict accurately. In this work, we develop a model of glucose-insulin regulation that captures PA from low to high intensity including acute and prolonged effects on glucose metabolism.
Methods: We extended an existing minimal model of glucose-insulin regulation to capture PA-driven changes in glucose metabolism. We incorporated the insulin-independent increase in glucose uptake and production, including the effects of glycogen depletion and of high-intensity PA on production. The model also captures the prolonged increase in insulin sensitivity.
Results: The model accurately predicts glucose dynamics of published data during short and prolonged PA of moderate to high intensity and during subsequent recovery. In-silico full-day studies elucidate the effects of timing, duration and intensity of PA and of insulin bolus reduction on glucose levels during and after the activity.
Conclusion: The proposed model captures the blood glucose dynamics during all main PA regimes.
Significance: Mathematical models of glucose-insulin regulation are critical components of closed-loop insulin delivery and clinical decision support systems for achieving good glycemic control. The presented model shows potential for the development and assessment of algorithms targeting treatment adjustment to PA.