Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Afghanistan

Climate change and its toll, warming temperatures, and decreasing precipitation levels over the last fifty years have led to innumerable weather anomalies that have caused droughts, floods, seasonal precipitation, and decline of groundwater chart, deforestation, and biodiversity in Afghanistan. Among all population groups, rural communities in Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable from the effects of climate change and especially the increasing of food insecurity because their livelihoods is strongly depend on agriculture activities. Therefore, rural families have been taking some poor measures to cope with climatic conditions and adapt to them. Because poorest people, particularly farmers and pastoralists are often living on edgy land, and food security and their livelihoods suffer from climate change. So that most worrying and need to be addressed most urgently. Therefore, climate analysis help to recognize the areas that there are the biggest changes in rainfall, temperature and other physical climate parameters. This, from this kind of climate data can find that what impacts of these changes will actually observe on poverty and food insecurity, and how is increased people's livelihood by the creation of food security and suitable income.

How to Predict Earthquakes by Using Simple and Reliable Method? Peru, Chile, Italy, Greece, New Zealand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India

This paper intended to highlight the simple, quick and reliable method to detect impending earthquake�s location. Volcanic eruption precursors are originated only around the volcanos, like that the onshore earthquake precursors are originated only from earthquake epicenter zones. Epicenter zones are earthquake zones, a little variation of fault zone, it comprises movable tectonic plates. Due to the orbital motion of the earth, centrifugal force generated, this centrifugal force is the major driving force of tectonic plates. The position of the orbital motion of the earth generated seasonal variations/atmospheric weather anomalies as onshore earthquake precursors and earthquakes, year after year repeating at same places. The generation process of seasonal weather anomalies is the part of generation process of earthquakes at epicenter zones. Both seasonal weather anomalies and seismic anomalies are not continued all through the year at same places. When earth comes to particular position, tectonic plates of particular epicenter zones are set to more active and becomes unstable epicenter zones, causes identifiable, observable, recordable and testable onshore earthquake precursors 1-15 days prior to earthquakes occur.

Some aspects of Rossby waves and non-linear dynamics

<p>Rossby waves are able to communicate weather anomalies in one region to other regions. There anomalous weather events can follow if the wave is persistent and large amplitude. They can also be caused by breaking of the wave leading to blocking. The impact on the middle latitudes via stationary Rossby wave trains triggered by tropical convection anomalies has been of interest for many years. However, tropical convective events can also interact with higher latitude jet streams and the weather systems on them through a very different mechanism. In this talk, some examples will be given that indicate the flaring of tropical convection can lead to strong upper tropospheric outflows in which filaments of air with near equatorial values of PV interact with higher latitude jet streams and the weather systems on them.</p>

Is it good to be bad or bad to be good? Assessing the aggregate impact of abnormal weather on consumer spending

Although the influence of exceptional weather on individual behaviour has already been acknowledged in finance, psychology, and marketing, the literature examining weather effects at more aggregate level is still limited. Further, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that weather anomalies affect consumer spending and retail business. The main aim of this analysis is to investigate and quantify the effects of unusual weather in consumer spending at macro-level. Using aggregate retail sales data for Switzerland, our findings reveal that weather deviations from seasonal norms, especially, unusually high or low temperatures in a given month, do cause sizeable intertemporal shifts in consumer spending at country level. Furthermore, the effects of abnormal weather are found to differ across seasons, both with respect to sign and magnitude. In particular, our findings indicate that weather effects manifest mainly through the seasons change channel: weather conditions in line with the coming season boost the purchases early in the season.

Extreme price moves: an INGARCH approach to model coexceedances in commodity markets

This study presents a set of integer-valued generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models to identify possible transmission channels of joint extreme price moves (coexceedances) across a group of agricultural commodities. These models are very useful to identify factors affecting joint tail events and they are superior in terms of goodness of fit to models without autoregressive components. Emerging market demand, crude oil, exchange rate, stock market conditions and credit spread explain extreme joint returns. Psychological factors and the Monday effect play a role in affecting extreme events, while weather anomalies (El Niño and La Niña episodes) do not have explanatory power.

Resilience of an Integrated Crop–Livestock System to Climate Change: A Simulation Analysis of Cover Crop Grazing in Southern Brazil

Integrated crop–livestock systems are a form of sustainable intensification of agriculture that rely on synergistic relationships between plant and animal system elements to bolster critical agroecosystem processes, with potential impacts on resilience to weather anomalies. We simulated productivity dynamics in an integrated cover crop grazing agroecosystem typical of southern Brazil to gain a better understanding of the impacts of livestock integration on system performance, including future productivity and resilience under climate change. Long-term historical simulations in APSIM showed that the integrated system resulted in greater system-wide productivity than a specialized control system in 77% of simulated years. Although soybean yields were typically lower in the integrated system, the additional forage and livestock production increased total system outputs. Under simulated future climate conditions [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario from 2020 to 2060], integrated system productivity exceeded specialized system productivity in 95% of years despite declines in average soybean yield and aboveground cover crop biomass production. While the integrated system provided a productivity buffer against chronic climate stress, its resilience to annual weather anomalies depended on disturbance type and timing. This study demonstrates the utility of process-based models for exploring biophysical proxies for resilience, as well as the potential advantages of livestock integration into cropland as a sustainable intensification strategy.

Crisis Management at the Commune Level in Poland

The article is devoted to the issues of crisis management at the community level in Poland. It contained information on a number of hazards caused by rapid technological development, frequent weather anomalies, or progressive degradation of the natural environment. It was noticed that due to constantly changing threats, the crisis management process was being evaluated. This situation requires a well-organized crisis management system at every administrative level. It was emphasized that crisis management was the activity of public administration bodies as part of managing national security.