Hybrid Bayesian Network Models to Investigate the Impact of Built Environment Experience before Adulthood on Students’ Tolerable Travel Time to Campus: Towards Sustainable Commute Behavior

This present study developed two predictive and associative Bayesian network models to forecast the tolerable travel time of university students to campus. This study considered the built environment experiences of university students during their early life-course as the main predictors of this study. The Bayesian network models were hybridized with the Pearson chi-square test to select the most relevant variables to predict the tolerable travel time. Two predictive models were developed. The first model was applied only to the variables of the built environment, while the second model was applied to all variables that were identified using the Pearson chi-square tests. The results showed that most students were inclined to choose the tolerable travel time of 0–20 min. Among the built environment predictors, the availability of residential buildings in the neighborhood in the age periods of 14–18 was the most important. Taking all the variables into account, distance from students’ homes to campuses was the most important. The findings of this research imply that the built environment experiences of people during their early life-course may affect their future travel behaviors and tolerance. Besides, the outcome of this study can help planners create more sustainable commute behaviors among people in the future by building more compact and mixed-use neighborhoods.

Effectiveness of the Early Response to COVID-19: Data Analysis and Modelling

Governments around the world have introduced a number of stringent policies to try to contain COVID-19 outbreaks, but the relative importance of such measures, in comparison to the community response to these restrictions, the amount of testing conducted, and the interconnections between them, is not well understood yet. In this study, data were collected from numerous online sources, pre-processed and analysed, and a number of Bayesian Network models were developed, in an attempt to unpack such complexity. Results show that early, high-volume testing was the most crucial factor in successfully monitoring and controlling the outbreaks; when testing was low, early government and community responses were found to be both critical in predicting how rapidly cases and deaths grew in the first weeks of the outbreak. Results also highlight that in countries with low early test numbers, the undiagnosed cases could have been up to five times higher than the officially diagnosed cases. The conducted analysis and developed models can be refined in the future with more data and variables, to understand/model potential second waves of contagions.