Comparison Between Nelson-Olson Method and Two-Stage Limited Dependent Variables (2SLDV ) Method for the Estimation of a Simultaneous Equations System (Tobit Model)

This study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator . That is , parameters will be estimated for the limited variables and find the variance-covariance matrix for extracted estimators by the aforementioned two methods and then compare between the results of the two methods and find any better method by estimation and then finding the estimation efficiency, and this is what the study aims to . A simultaneous equations system will be imposed for the limited model defined by two equations containing two endogenous variables one of complete observations and the other censored at zero. The two methods were used to analyze the relationship between income and family expenditure on durable consumer goods , where the results showed that the performance of (Nelson-Olson) method is better than performing the Two-Stage limited dependent variables (2SLDV) method in obtain the lower values and all comparison measures as well as the results showed that income and expenditure one affects the other and the and the price affects the income and expenditure

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of oil palm smallholder's household income

PurposeThis study aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the oil palm smallholders' income, which includes both on-farm and off-farm resources.Design/methodology/approachThis study used a simultaneous equations system for arranging the oil palm household economic model.FindingsThe results showed that the negative effect of demand disruption (decreasing of household income) is more than supply disruption (production declining). Declining household income due to COVID-19 caused farmer households to have no access to both basic need and other goods.Research limitations/implicationsThe samples for before-pandemic data differed from the situation during COVID-19 in both the location and the person due to technical constraints in research sites.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study was providing an empirical understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic influences the economic behavior of the most vulnerable entities in the Indonesian palm oil industry (oil palm smallholder farmers' households). This study would provide baseline information on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of oil palm smallholder's household income.

The Relationships Among Managerial Discretion, Firm Performance, And Chief Executive Officer Compensation: A Simultaneous Equations System Approach

Prior executive compensation studies overlooked the endogeneity of firm performance and the simultaneity of managerial discretion, firm performance, and CEO pay. To overcome these two shortcomings, we propose a novel simultaneous equations system model to investigate the cause-and-effect relationships among research & development (R&D), advertising, firm performance, and CEO compensation, which are jointly affected by CEO’s tenure, age, ownership, firm size, risk, and industry. Although the feedback loops are positive between firm performance and CEO pay and between advertising and firm performance, the feedback loop is negative between R&D and firm performance. Firm size has a direct and indirect effect on R&D, advertising, firm performance, and CEO pay. Large firm size may entice CEOs to invest excessively in R&D, leading to poor performance and low pay. Our study implies that the positive relationship between firm performance and CEO pay depends upon the appropriateness of the strategic choices that CEOs make.

ESTIMACIÓN DE LA TASA DE INTERÉS NEUTRAL, DESEMPLEO E INFLACIÓN EN MÉXICO

<p>¿Cuáles son los mecanismos de transmisión que determinan a la tasa de interés neutral que sirve de referencia para establecer la postura de política monetaria del Banco Central? Se analiza el papel de la tasa de desocupación y la inflación en la determinación de la tasa de interés neutral. La conclusión es que el Banco de México podría tomar una postura de política monetaria más expansiva sin generar presiones inflacionarias. La tasa de interés se calcula con: 1) la regla de Taylor y un sistema de ecuaciones simultáneas cointegrado y 2) la paridad de tasas de interés. Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de interés neutral cambia a través de dos mecanismos: 1) de manera indirecta cuando se presenta una variación en la tasa de desocupación, lo que genera un cambio en la inflación y, por tanto, un desplazamiento de la tasa neutral, y 2) de manera directa cuando hay una reducción en la brecha del producto interno bruto.</p><p> </p><p align="center">ESTIMATION OF THE NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION IN MEXICO</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p>What are the transmission mechanisms determining the neutral rate of interest that serves as a reference to establish the monetary policy stance of the Central Bank? We analyze the role of unemployment and inflation in determining such neutral rate. We conclude that the Banco de México could take a more expansive monetary policy stance without generating inflationary pressures. The rate is calculated using two methods: 1) the Taylor rule and a cointegrated simultaneous equations system and 2) the interest rate parity. Our results suggest that the neutral interest rate changes through two mechanisms: 1) indirectly when there is a variation in the unemployment rate, which generates a change in inflation and, therefore, a shift in the neutral rate and 2) directly when there is a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product gap.

Quantitative target setting in balanced scorecard method using simultaneous equations system and goal programming

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the accurate cause and effect relationships among strategic objectives and also to demonstrate how decision makers can be guided in the process of defining quantitative strategic target values in the framework of balanced scorecard (BSC) and performance measurement system. Design/methodology/approach Based on the proposed method in this research, after determining strategic objectives and developing an initial strategy map according to decision makers’ opinions, simultaneous equations system (SES) was used to determine the significance of the relationships among strategic objectives in higher perspectives of the BSC and corresponding strategic objectives in lower perspectives. Afterward, desirable values for performance measures were determined based on the equations and relationships obtained through SES and were optimized by goal programming method. Findings By applying the proposed method, a clearer picture of the associations among strategic objectives is obtained and the influence of strategic objectives on one another is determined. Afterward, optimal values for strategic objectives are determined to achieve the organization’s goals. Research limitations/implications This paper proposes a framework for constructing a strategy map and setting quantitative targets in the framework of BSC. Indeed, this paper presents a case study to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. However, SES technique requires a greater amount of data to generate more accurate results. Although the advent of the Information Age has forced organizations’ decision makers to provide sufficient information and data for business analysis, the data requirements are met. Practical implications The presented quantitative approach is a supporting approach for improving decision makers’ opinions and enabling them to reach a more accurate picture of the relationships, valuing strategic objectives and achieving strategic goals. This research also presents a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The application and implication of the proposed method in banking services show that the contributions of the paper are not only theoretical, but also practical. Originality/value The proposed method provides a novel approach for determining the most appropriate targets and applies a comprehensive and scientific model together with decision makers’ opinions and experiences and has two main contributions: first, the associations among strategic objectives are investigated and obtained in an effective way by conducting the SES for the first time in the framework of BSC. Second, quantitative targets have been determined to help in achieving the long-term goals. This task has been accomplished through a combination of SES, the three-stage least squares regression analysis and optimization by using weighted goal programming method.

TRADE INTEGRATION AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INTEGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM ASIA

This paper investigates the relationship between international trade integration and international financial integration in Asia using a dataset covering the period from 2001 to 2015. Using a simultaneous equations system, this paper sheds further light into international trade integration and international financial integration processes of Asian countries. We account for the bidirectional causality between these two variables by employing a system of simultaneous equations. Utilizing the two-stage least squares estimator, we find a positive and significant bidirectional relationship between international trade integration and international financial integration. This result has strong policy implication relating to the liberalization process in these Asian countries.

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP KINERJA SUB SEKTOR PERIKANAN DI INDONESIA: SUATU PENDEKATAN EKONOMETRIKA

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan makroekonomi terhadap kinerja sub sektor perikanan. Model ekonometrika yang dibangun sebagai sistem persamaan simultan yang memasukan variabel kebijakan makroekonomi. Analisis dampak dibedakan dalam 3 (tiga) periode, yaitu sebelum krisis ekonomi periode 1993-1996, pada krisis ekonomi periode 1997-2000 dan pada peramalan periode 2003-2007. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan makroekonomi: (1) depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah, (2) peningkatan kredit di sub sektor perikanan, (3) peningkatan investasi di sub sektor perikanan, (4) kombinasi penurunan tingkat suku bunga dan peningkatan kredit di sub sektor perikanan, dan (5) kombinasi kebijakan 1, 3 dan 4 pada peramalan periode 2003-2007 dapat meningkatkan kinerja sub sektor perikanan (produksi, konsumsi dan ekspor perikanan meningkat). Depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah, peningkatan kredit atau investasi di sub sektor perikanan (kebijakan tunggal) dapat meningkatkan kinerja sub sektor perikanan. Kinerja sub sektor perikanan akan meningkat lebih tinggi apabila dilakukan kombinasi kebijakan yang dapat menurunkan tingkat suku bunga, peningkatan kredit dan investasi di sub sektor perikanan pada kondisi depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah. Tittle: Impacts of Macroeconomic Policy on The Performance of Fisheries Sector in Indonesia: An Econometrics ApproachThis research was intended to analyze the impact of macroeconomic policy on the performance of the fisheries sector. The Econometric model was built in terms of simultaneous equations system, which include macroeconomic policy variables. The impact analysis was elaborated into three periods, i.e. the period before the economic crisis (1993-1996), the period of economic crisis (1997-2000), and the forecasting period (2003-2007). The results of the macroeconomic policies of: (1) depreciation in exchange rate of rupiah, (2) the increasing of credit in fisheries sector, (3) the increasing of investment in fisheries sector, (4) the combination of the decreasing of interest rate and the increasing of credit in fisheries sector, and (5) the policy combination 1, 3 and 4 for the forecasting period 2003-2007 could increase the performance of fisheries sector in terms of production, consumption and fisheries export. The depreciation in exchange rate of rupiah, the increasing of credit or investment in fisheries sector (single policy) could increase the performance of fisheries sector. The performance of fisheries sector will be keep increasing by combining policies of: decreasing of interest rate, increasing of credit in fisheries sector and increasing of investment in fisheries sector at condition depreciations in exchange rate of rupiah.