Proximities of Violence: Civil Order Beyond Governance Institutions

This article is concerned with the relationship between the quality of a country's governance institutions and the degree of civil order it experiences. Using evidence from Somaliland, it argues that order and peaceful cohabitation can be sustained not only when, but even partly because, governance institutions are incapable of reliably controlling violence. It suggests that Somaliland's postconflict peace is less grounded in the constraining power of its governance institutions than in a powerful discourse about the country's structural, temporal, and physical proximity to war. Through its sensitivity to the ease with which peace gives way to war, this discourse indirectly harnesses an apparent propensity to disorder as a source of order. This case challenges the “common sense” causal relationship between institutions and order. If either the strength or the weakness of institutions can offer foundations for order, then neither quality can be assigned as its cause without also being its effect. This has important implications beyond Somaliland by suggesting that, if weak institutions can support order under certain discursive conditions, then discourse—which is inherently fluid—also mediates the relationship between robust institutions and order. This makes them more susceptible to rapid change than usually imagined.

Public Assistance, Relationship Context, and Jail for Child Support Debt

Previous studies of poverty governance have focused on the welfare system, the criminal justice system, and the connections between them. Yet less attention has been paid to a third institution that bridges the gap between these two systems: child support enforcement. Jailing for child support nonpayment is one of many mechanisms of child support enforcement, but little is known about this tactic. Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, the author examines the process of nonresident fathers’ (1) acquiring a formal support order, (2) accruing child support debt, and (3) being jailed for this debt. The author proposes two pathways into jail for child support nonpayment—public assistance and relationship context—and demonstrates how each pathway affects the risk for jail. Overall, 14 percent of debtors spend time in jail for child support by the time their children are nine years old.

Da Prisão por Dívida Alimentar e o Pacto de San José da Costa Rica

DA PRISÃO POR DÍVIDA ALIMENTAR E O PACTO SAN JOSÉ DA COSTA RICA IMPRISONMENT FOR NONCOMPLIANCE WITH CHILD SUPPORT ORDER AND THE PACT OF SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA Guilherme Domingos de Luca*Laura Bazotte Borges** RESUMO: O presente estudo, inserido na linha de pesquisa “Fundamentos dogmáticos da experiência Jurídica”, visa a analisar o instituto da “Prisão civil por dívida alimentar na relação de parentesco em face do impacto gerado pelo Pacto de San José da Costa Rica”, sob enfoque da aplicação do instituto dos alimentos na relação de parentesco. Em razão das controvérsias, será estudado o status normativo ao qual o Pacto foi elevado no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, em decorrência da promulgação da Emenda Constitucional nº 45/2004. A pesquisa foi pautada na análise de doutrinas, em especial das obras de direito de família, buscando apontar o status normativo do Pacto, visto que este tratado prevê a prisão civil do inadimplente da obrigação alimentar, após a promulgação da Emenda Constitucional nº 45/2004. Trata-se da metodologia dedutiva, que levou em consideração as comparações bibliográficas, para se concluir qual a real importância desta norma internacional no direito positivo vigente. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Alimentos. Prisão Civil. Pacto de São José da Costa Rica. ABSTRACT: This study aims to analyze the institute of “civil imprisonment for noncompliance with child support order in face of the impact generated by the Pact of San José, Costa Rica”. Because of the controversy, the legal status of this Pact in the Brazilian legal system and the implications of the enactment of Constitutional Amendment 45/2004 will be studied. The research was based on the analysis of opinions from legal theorists, especially in the family law field, seeking to identify the legal status of the Pact, since this treaty enables the imprisonment for noncompliance with child support order and was enacted after the Constitutional Amendment 45/2004, which forbids civil imprisonment. Through a deductive methodology, which took into account comparative literature, this research will help to dimension the real importance of this Pact in the current positive law. KEYWORDS: Child Support. Civil Imprisonment. Pact of San Jose, Costa Rica. SUMÁRIO: SUMÁRIO: Introdução. 1 Origem e Conceituação. 2 Condições para se Decretar a Prisão Civil. 3 Ingresso dos Tratados no Ordenamento Jurídico Brasileiro. 4 Controvérsias do Status Jurídico da Prisão Civil. 5 Da Análise Jurisprudencial. Considerações Finais. Referências.* Mestre em Teoria do Direito e do Estado pelo Centro Universitário Eurípedes de Marília (UNIVEM), São Paulo. Especialista em Direito do Trabalho e Previdenciário pela Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais. Bolsista CAPES/PROSUP.** Especialista em Direito do Trabalho e Previdenciário pelo Centro Universitário Eurípedes de Marília (UNIVEM), São Paulo.

DRIVER MODERATOR METHOD FOR RETAIL SALES PREDICTION

We introduce a new method for stock keeping unit (SKU)-store level sales prediction in the presence of promotions to support order quantity and promotion planning decisions for retail managers. The method leverages the marketing literature to generate features, and data mining techniques to train a model that provides accurate sales predictions for existing and new SKUs, as well as consistent, actionable insights into category, store and promotion dynamics. The proposed "Driver Moderator" method uses basic SKU-store information and historical sales and promotion data to generate many features. It simultaneously selects few relevant features and estimates their parameters by using an L1-norm regularized epsilon insensitive regression that is formulated to pool information across SKUs and stores. Evaluations on two grocery store databases from Turkey and the USA show that out-of-sample predictions for existing and new SKUs are as good as, or more accurate than benchmark methods. Using the method's predictions for inventory decisions doubles the inventory turn ratio versus using individual regressions by lowering lost sales and inventory levels at the same time.