DRIVER MODERATOR METHOD FOR RETAIL SALES PREDICTION

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (06) ◽  
pp. 1261-1286 ◽  
Author(s):  
ÖZDEN GÜR ALI
Keyword(s):  
Grocery Store ◽  
Order Quantity ◽  
L1 Norm ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Retail Managers ◽  
Promotion Planning ◽  
Support Order

We introduce a new method for stock keeping unit (SKU)-store level sales prediction in the presence of promotions to support order quantity and promotion planning decisions for retail managers. The method leverages the marketing literature to generate features, and data mining techniques to train a model that provides accurate sales predictions for existing and new SKUs, as well as consistent, actionable insights into category, store and promotion dynamics. The proposed "Driver Moderator" method uses basic SKU-store information and historical sales and promotion data to generate many features. It simultaneously selects few relevant features and estimates their parameters by using an L1-norm regularized epsilon insensitive regression that is formulated to pool information across SKUs and stores. Evaluations on two grocery store databases from Turkey and the USA show that out-of-sample predictions for existing and new SKUs are as good as, or more accurate than benchmark methods. Using the method's predictions for inventory decisions doubles the inventory turn ratio versus using individual regressions by lowering lost sales and inventory levels at the same time.

Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL D. WARD ◽  
JOHN S. AHLQUIST ◽  
ARTURAS ROZENAS
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Directed Graphs ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Latent Space ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Usa

AbstractThe gravity model, long the empirical workhorse for modeling international trade, ignores network dependencies in bilateral trade data, instead assuming that dyadic trade is independent, conditional on a hierarchy of covariates over country, time, and dyad. We argue that there are theoretical as well as empirical reasons to expect network dependencies in international trade. Consequently, standard gravity models are empirically inadequate. We combine a gravity model specification with “latent space” networks to develop a dynamic mixture model for real-valued directed graphs. The model simultaneously incorporates network dependencies in both trade incidence and trade volumes. We estimate this model using bilateral trade data from 1990 to 2008. The model substantially outperforms standard accounts in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive heuristics. We illustrate the model's usefulness by tracking trading propensities between the USA and China.

Inward retail internationalization and exogenous – based outshopping on the US-Mexico border

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 434-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hadjimarcou ◽  
Jessica Herrera ◽  
Dalila Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Medical Tourism ◽  
Border Zone ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Target Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Zones ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
Retail Managers

Purpose Previous research on the internationalization of retailing typically focused on retail companies crossing borders to enter other countries. Yet, a large number of people cross country borders to outshop in neighboring countries. This form of inward retail internationalization has received little attention in the literature. To address this void, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the strategies of retailers in a border zone setting. Design/methodology/approach The authors collected data from 109 US retailers on the USA–Mexico border. The survey instrument included questions that captured the participants’ opinions regarding the importance of Mexican consumers, retail mix strategies, performance issues and overall retailer characteristics. Findings The findings show that US retailers perceive cross-border consumers as important to their performance. Interestingly, the findings also suggest that border zone retailers do not adapt their retail mix strategies with this target market in mind. Research limitations/implications The research was conducted at one particular border zone with its own unique characteristics. It is not clear whether the authors’ findings would apply in other inward internationalization contexts (e.g. medical tourism) or border zones. Future research should delve much more deeply into understanding outshopping motivations in border zones, but also the reasons why retailers do not actively engage in marketing their establishments to this target market. Practical implications The authors’ findings have interesting implications for retail managers in border zones. While exogenous and uncontrollable advantages on one side of the border may attract customers away from the other side of the border, retail mix customization under the control of retail managers may actually stimulate similar or better results. Border zone retailers are encouraged to engage in efforts to understand the border zone consumer and engage in programs directly targeted at them. Originality/value The study is grounded in theory and empirically assesses the retailers’ own contributions to enhancing their inward internationalization performance. By using the model of secondary boundary effects developed by Clark (1994) as their theoretical prism, the authors have put forward hypotheses, which address the aforementioned issues.

Hedonic analysis of US fresh produce prices at direct-to-consumer sales outlets versus competing retailers

2016 ◽  
Vol 118 (7) ◽  
pp. 1665-1681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve W. Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Direct Marketing ◽  
Grocery Store ◽  
Farmers Markets ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Grocery Stores ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Sales ◽  
Direct To Consumer ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Price Differences

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare prices for fresh tomatoes, potatoes, peppers, and apples at direct-to-consumer sales outlets (e.g. farmers markets, roadside stands, on-farm stores) in the USA to grocery stores and supercenters, while controlling for other attributes. Design/methodology/approach – The author estimates a hedonic regression model to determine price differences at direct sales outlets, grocery stores, and supercenters in various regions and seasons of the year. The analysis is conducted using 2006 Nielsen Homescan data. Other product and market attributes are also considered, along with characteristics of the household sample. Findings – Prices at direct sales outlets are lower than grocery store prices throughout the year and across the USA. Prices at direct sales outlets for some product/location/season combinations were higher than or comparable to supercenter prices. Research limitations/implications – Future research is needed to examine how price differences may vary across the various types of direct marketing outlets. Originality/value – Few studies have examined price differences between direct sales outlets and conventional retail stores. No studies have used nationally representative data to analyze these price differences across produce type, season, and geographic areas.

scholarly journals Assessing intrastate shipments from interstate data and expert opinion

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 192042
Author(s):  
Peter Brommesson ◽  
Stefan Sellman ◽  
Lindsay Beck-Johnson ◽  
Clayton Hallman ◽  
Deedra Murrieta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deviance Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Live Animal ◽  
Distance Dependence ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Functional Forms ◽  
Complete Contact ◽  
Expert Data

Live animal shipments are a potential route for transmitting animal diseases between holdings and are crucial when modelling spread of infectious diseases. Yet, complete contact networks are not available in all countries, including the USA. Here, we considered a 10% sample of Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspections from 1 year (2009). We focused on distance dependence in contacts and investigated how different functional forms affect estimates of unobserved intrastate shipments. To further enhance our predictions, we included responses from an expert elicitation survey about the proportion of shipments moving intrastate. We used hierarchical Bayesian modelling to estimate parameters describing the kernel and effects of expert data. We considered three functional forms of spatial kernels and the inclusion or exclusion of expert data. The resulting six models were ranked by widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) and evaluated through within- and out-of-sample validation. We showed that predictions of intrastate shipments were mildly influenced by the functional form of the spatial kernel but kernel shapes that permitted a fat tail at large distances while maintaining a plateau-shaped behaviour at short distances better were preferred. Furthermore, our study showed that expert data may not guarantee enhanced predictions when expert estimates are disparate.

Predicting Consumer Retail Sales Using Neural Networks

2002 ◽  
pp. 26-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Peter Zhang ◽  
Min Qi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Data Preprocessing ◽  
Grocery Store ◽  
Neural Network Modeling ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Preprocessing Technique

Forecasting future retail sales is one of the most important activities that form the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses as well as retail supply chains. This chapter illustrates how to best model and forecast retail sales time series that contain both trend and seasonal variations. The effectiveness of data preprocessing such as detrending and deseasonalization on neural network forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of two different retail sales: computer store sales and grocery store sales. We show that without data preprocessing neural networks are not able to effectively model retail sales with both trend and seasonality in the data, and either detrending or deseasonalization can greatly improve neural network modeling and forecasting accuracy. A combined approach of detrending and deseasonalization is shown to be the most effective data preprocessing technique that can yield the best forecasting result.

scholarly journals HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE FORMATION OF HIGH-DENSITY LOW-STOREY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

2020 ◽  
pp. 136-142
Author(s):  
O. A. Kryzhantovska ◽  
◽  
T. S. Rumilec ◽  
T. T. Morozova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
High Density ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Small House ◽  
The Uk

The article discusses key issues related to the historical prerequisites for the formation of a high-density low-rise residential development. This is a complex and long process, the stages of which took place at different times and in different countries of the world. Today, such a building is very promising for modern rapidly growing cities, so it is important to track the history of its formation and the features of such planning decisions at different times. Such architecture can become a new vector in the development of modern cities, because low-rise residential buildings are much more comfortable than high-rise buildings. The article gives examples of low-rise city houses in different histories and in different countries. The aim of this work is to review the historical background of the formation of modern high-density low-rise buildings. The following historical examples of low-rise high-density buildings are considered: early single-family residential buildings of the ancient settlements of Mesopotamia and Egypt, residential buildings in Ancient Greece and Rome, blocked residential buildings for workers in the 19th century. In the UK, townhouses of the 1920s and 30s. In the USA, etc. The article shows the planning decisions and the appearance of low-rise high-density residential buildings. The main features of such houses are quarterly development, large-scale man, blocked development and the presence of a small house area.

Creating memories and bonding through competitive shopping for bridal gowns

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-529
Author(s):  
Bridget Satinover Nichols ◽  
Daniel J. Flint
Keyword(s):  
Theory Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Female Consumers ◽  
Cultural Conditions ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Retail Managers ◽  
Retail Shopping ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this research is to explore the experiences of women who participated in a competitive retail shopping event. Design/methodology/approach The grounded theory approach was used. Findings Interpretations of the data suggest that female consumers use competitive shopping events to facilitate interpersonal bonding and create meaningful memories. Findings also reveal that female consumers value memorable retail experiences, particularly when they are contextualized by important cultural conditions. Research limitations/implications The study focused on one competitive shopping event and informants were exclusively women in the USA. The results imply that competitive retail shopping experiences can be important events in the lives of those involved, especially if they have cultural importance. Practical implications It is important for retail managers to understand the impact shopping experiences may have on customers. This paper’s findings suggest that retailers may be able to help facilitate memorable experiences by creating an environment for shoppers to bond with their shopping companions. Creating a competitive atmosphere that is enjoyable and special is one such environment. The findings are based on a focal product (wedding gown) that has symbolic importance in the lives of the women involved. Social implications This study highlights the social value of shopping for women, particularly as it relates to a ritualistic event (marriage and weddings). Originality/value This research is one of the first to specifically analyze the competitive nuances of special retail events. It uncovers a critical benefit to the people who participate in consumer competition.

OBITUARY NATHAN JACOBSON (1910–1999)

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 623-630
Author(s):  
P. M. COHN
Keyword(s):  
Grocery Store ◽  
First Year ◽  
Honorary Member ◽  
University Of Alabama ◽  
Grand Tour ◽  
The First World War ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Part Time ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The University

Nathan Jacobson, who died on 5 December 1999, was an outstanding algebraist, whose work on almost all aspects of algebra was of fundamental importance, and whose writings will exercise a lasting influence. He had been an honorary member of the Society since 1972.Nathan Jacobson (later known as ‘Jake’ to his friends) was born in Warsaw (in what he describes as the ‘Jewish ghetto’) on 5 October 1910 (through an error some documents have the date 8 September); he was the second son of Charles Jacobson (as he would be known later) and his wife Pauline, née Rosenberg. His family emigrated to the USA during the First World War, first to Nashville, Tennessee, where his father owned a small grocery store, but they then settled in Birmingham, Alabama, where Nathan received most of his schooling. Later the family moved to Columbus, Mississippi, but the young Nathan entered the University of Alabama in 1926 and graduated in 1930. His initial aim was to follow an uncle and obtain a degree in law, but at the same time he took all the (not very numerous) mathematics courses, in which he did so well that he was offered a teaching assistantship in mathematics in his junior (3rd) year. This marked a turning point; he now decided to major in mathematics and pursue this study beyond College. During his final year at Alabama he applied for admission and financial aid to three top graduate schools in the country: Princeton, Harvard and Chicago. He was awarded a research assistantship at Princeton; after the first year he was appointed a part-time instructor for two years, and during his fourth year he was appointed a Procter Fellow. The stipend was enough to enable him to make a grand tour of Europe by car in 1935, in the company of two Princeton fellow-students at the time: H. F. Bohnenblust and Robert J. Walker.

Characterization of Cannabidiol in Alternative Biological Specimens and Urine, after Consumption of an Oral Capsule

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Ameline ◽  
Jean-Sébastien Raul ◽  
Pascal Kintz
Keyword(s):  
Oral Fluid ◽  
Cannabis Sativa ◽  
Grocery Store ◽  
Exhaled Breath ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Few Data ◽  
Sweat Patch ◽  
Urine Specimens ◽  
Oral Capsule

Abstract Among the hundred cannabinoids present in cannabis sativa indica, cannabidiol (CBD) is a phytocannabinoid discovered in 1940, which can account for up to 40% of the plant’s extract. Medically, it has been proposed to treat convulsions, inflammation, anxiety and nausea. Contrary to the hallucinogenic ingredient of the plant, delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol, CBD does not seem to have a sedative effect, which can increase its popularity among users. The identification of CBD in blood and urine has been widely described in the scientific literature for several years. Only few data have been reported regarding CBD identification in alternative specimens, such as oral fluid, sweat, exhaled breath and hair. CBD capsules were purchased in the USA from a grocery store and a green capsule containing 22 mg of CBD was orally administered to a 59-year-old healthy man. Oral fluid was collected over 8 h using the NeoSal™ device. Sweat was collected using PharmCheck™ sweat patch technology over 7 days. Exhaled breath was collected with the ExaBreath® DrugTrap device over 8 h. Beard hair was collected 7 and 14 days after administration. Finally, urine specimens were collected over 48 h in plastic tubes without preservative. CBD was only detected in oral fluid at 15 min, at 20 pg/mL. Increasing concentrations, up to 96 pg/patch of CBD, were detected in the sweat patches. CBD was detected for 45 minutes in exhaled breath (Cmax of 302 pg/filter at 30 min). CBD produced a very low but significant chromatographic signal in beard hair, with concentrations <1 pg/mg. Finally, CBD tested positive in urine after enzymatic hydrolysis with a Cmax at 70 ng/mL, after 6 h.

The outcome of laparoscopic fundoplication for reflux disease in communlity practice in the USA

2001 ◽  
Vol 120 (5) ◽  
pp. A16-A16 ◽  
Author(s):  
N VAKIL ◽  
S TREML ◽  
M SHAW ◽  
R KIRBY
Keyword(s):  
Reflux Disease ◽  
Laparoscopic Fundoplication ◽  
The Usa
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