Using Heinrich’s (Bird’s) Pyramid of Adverse Events to Assess the Level of Safety in an Airline

One of the key concepts in matters of flight safety is that of special (abnormal) situations, with airworthiness regulation and certification of aviation equipment being based on this concept. At the same time, one is forced to admit that today there is no explicit interpretation of the standardized traits of special situations, nor are they not fully elucidated in the scientific literature. In this article we propose a pyramid-based approach to interpreting special (abnormal) in-flight situations, which allows for risk assessment not using risk matrices, but instead relying only on the probabilistic characteristics of the occurrence of events. Using the presence of a causal relationship between the layers of the pyramid, we propose an algorithm for the transition of varying degrees of danger of special situations. This algorithm can be used to develop an on-board device that informs the pilot about the dynamics of transitions from one situation to another, representing each emergency situation in a certain color.

Optimization of the Mechanism of Natural and Climate Risk Insurance at the Macro- and Meso-levels of the National Economy

Ukraine has geographical conditions for development of different industries affected by natural and climatic factors. It is necessary to optimize the mechanisms of risk insurance. Modifications of the risk insurance, ways to improve its effectiveness are outlined. Selection of a multi-risk solution for the insurer for strategic findings of it as a player is appropriate based on business environment or the nature of the business of the insurers. Algorithms for minimizing uncertainty in relation to the national economy as a whole, based on risk matrices, with zones 0 and FGK algorithms are determined. Insurance mechanisms with elements of game theory are formed. The optimization measures allow concluding hybrid multi-risk contracts and formation of a model of public-private partnership with state support.

Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution

We study the applicability of the half-normal distribution to the probability–severity risk analysis traditionally performed through risk matrices and continuous probability–consequence diagrams (CPCDs). To this end, we develop a model that adapts the financial risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to risky scenarios that face only negative impacts. This model leads to three risk indicators: The Hazards Index-at-Risk (HIaR), the Expected Hazards Damage (EHD), and the Conditional HIaR (CHIaR). HIaR measures the expected highest hazards impact under a certain probability, while EHD consists of the expected impact that stems from truncating the half-normal distribution at the HIaR point. CHIaR, in turn, measures the expected damage in the case it exceeds the HIaR. Therefore, the Truncated Risk Model that we develop generates a measure for hazards expectations (EHD) and another measure for hazards surprises (CHIaR). Our analysis includes deduction of the mathematical functions that relate HIaR, EHD, and CHIaR to one another as well as the expected loss estimated by risk matrices. By extending the model to the generalised half-normal distribution, we incorporate a shape parameter into the model that can be interpreted as a hazard aversion coefficient.

International Project Finance

The second edition of this new authority on project financing continues to provide guidance on the legal and practical issues relevant to international projects. As well as addressing the basic principles which affect the structuring and documentation of project financings, the book also explains structural, legal, and contractual differences between the various sectors such as transportation, telecommunication, infrastructure, public/private partnerships; conventional, renewable, and nuclear power; mining, and oil and gas. It considers the application of English and New York law in cross-border documentation and legal and practical matters associated with running financing projects in civil law jurisdictions. Different sources of funding are also examined. These include the legal and documentation issues arising from the use of such financing techniques and how they interact with each other. Equally significant, the book provides analysis of project defaults and work-outs giving guidance on how to manage projects when these circumstances arise. It also contains extensive coverage of dispute resolution in international projects. Project finance is used worldwide to structure and finance natural resource and infrastructure projects. This book provides detailed guidance on practical issues such as the identification and assessment of project risk with relevant documentation such as risk matrices and checklists covering both key project contracts and the major terms of a project financing aimed at providing practical guidance to practitioners on the structuring of projects.