Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation

A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events. However, such subjective probabilities estimations are usually subjected to a bias known as the partition dependence bias. This study aims to investigate the effect of state space partitioning and the level of knowledge on subjective probability estimations. The state space is partitioned into full, collapsed, and pruned trees, while the knowledge is manipulated into low and high levels. A scenario called “Best Bank Award” was developed and a 2 × 3 experimental design was employed to explore the effect of the level of knowledge and the partitioning of the state space on the subjective probability. A total of 627 professionals participated in the study and 543 valid responses were used for analysis. The results of two-way ANOVA with the Tukey HSD test for post hoc analysis indicate a mean probability of 24.2% for the full tree, which is significantly lower than those of the collapsed (35.7%) as well as pruned (36.3%) trees. Moreover, there is significant difference in the mean probabilities between the low (38.1%) and high (24.9%) knowledge levels. The results support the hypotheses that the partitioning of the state space as well as the level of knowledge affects subjective probability estimation. The study demonstrates that regardless of the level of knowledge, the partition dependence bias is robust. However, the subjective probability accuracy improves with more knowledge.

Developmental change in partition dependent resource allocation behavior

Partition dependence, the tendency to distribute choices differently based on the way options are grouped, has important implications for decision making. This phenomenon, observed in adults across a variety of contexts such as allocating resources or making selections from a menu of items, can bias decision makers toward some choices and away from others. Only one study to date (Reichelson, Zax, Patalano, & Barth, 2019) has investigated the developmental trajectory of this phenomenon. In the current study we investigate children’s and adults’ susceptibility to partitioning effects in a child-friendly resource allocation task. In Experiment 1 (N = 80), adults distributed 12 food tokens to animals at the zoo. Based on previous findings that older children show weaker partition dependence in this task, we predicted that adults might exhibit reduced partition dependent behavior: they showed none. In Experiment 2 (N = 272), we used a less transparent task with only five food tokens, predicting that both adults and children (ages 3-10 years) would show partition dependence. Children, but not adults, made partition dependent resource allocations, with younger children exhibiting greater effects than older children. These experiments provide further evidence that children’s decisions, like adults’ (in other tasks), are influenced by the arbitrary partitioning of the available options. This work supports previous findings that younger children may be more susceptible to these effects, and maps developmental change in partition dependent behavior from early childhood to adulthood on this child-friendly partition dependence task.

Partition dependence in development: Are children’s decisions shaped by the arbitrary grouping of options?

The grouping of options into arbitrary categories influences adults’ decisions about allocating choices or resources among those options; this is called “partition dependence.” Partition dependence has been demonstrated in a wide range of contexts in adults and is often presented as a technique for designing choice architectures that nudge people towards better decisions. Whether children also make partition dependent decisions is unknown, as are potential patterns of developmental change. In this experiment ( N = 159), we examined whether children exhibit partition dependence using a novel resource allocation task. This novel task, distributing food tokens to zoo animals, did elicit partition dependence in our developmental sample. Both older children (ages 7-10 years) and younger children (ages 3-6 years) made partition dependent allocations, and younger children exhibited a larger partition dependence effect than did older children. This work provides the first evidence that children’s decisions, like adults’, are influenced by the arbitrary grouping of the options, and suggests that younger children may be more susceptible to this influence, at least in the context explored here.

Partition dependence in development: Are children’s decisions shaped by the arbitrary grouping of options?

The grouping of options into arbitrary categories influences adults’ decisions about allocating choices or resources among those options; this is called “partition dependence.” Partition dependence has been demonstrated in a wide range of contexts in adults, and is often presented as a technique for designing choice architectures that nudge people toward better decisions. Whether children also make partition dependent decisions is unknown, as are potential patterns of developmental change. In this experiment (N = 159), we examined whether children exhibit partition dependence using a novel resource allocation task. This novel task, distributing food tokens to zoo animals, did elicit partition dependence in our developmental sample. Both older children (ages 7-10 years), and younger children (ages 3-6 years) made partition dependent allocations, and younger children exhibited a larger partition dependence effect than did older children. This work provides the first evidence that children’s decisions, like adults’, are influenced by the arbitrary grouping of the options, and suggests that younger children may be more susceptible to this influence, at least in the context explored here.