scholarly journals Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 003685042110096
Author(s):  
Mohammed A AlKhars
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
The State ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Space Partitioning ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Common Technique ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
Partition Dependence

A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events. However, such subjective probabilities estimations are usually subjected to a bias known as the partition dependence bias. This study aims to investigate the effect of state space partitioning and the level of knowledge on subjective probability estimations. The state space is partitioned into full, collapsed, and pruned trees, while the knowledge is manipulated into low and high levels. A scenario called “Best Bank Award” was developed and a 2 × 3 experimental design was employed to explore the effect of the level of knowledge and the partitioning of the state space on the subjective probability. A total of 627 professionals participated in the study and 543 valid responses were used for analysis. The results of two-way ANOVA with the Tukey HSD test for post hoc analysis indicate a mean probability of 24.2% for the full tree, which is significantly lower than those of the collapsed (35.7%) as well as pruned (36.3%) trees. Moreover, there is significant difference in the mean probabilities between the low (38.1%) and high (24.9%) knowledge levels. The results support the hypotheses that the partitioning of the state space as well as the level of knowledge affects subjective probability estimation. The study demonstrates that regardless of the level of knowledge, the partition dependence bias is robust. However, the subjective probability accuracy improves with more knowledge.

Partition Priming in Judgment Under Uncertainty

2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig R. Fox ◽  
Yuval Rottenstreich
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Prior Probability ◽  
The State ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Partition Dependence

We show that likelihood judgments are biased toward an ignorance-prior probability that assigns equal credence to each mutually exclusive event considered by the judge. The value of the ignorance prior depends crucially on how the set of possibilities (i.e., the state space) is subjectively partitioned by the judge. For instance, asking “what is the probability that Sunday will be hotter than any other day next week?” facilitates a two-fold case partition, (Sunday hotter, Sunday not hotter), thus priming an ignorance prior of 1/2. In contrast, asking “what is the probability that the hottest day of the week will be Sunday?” facilitates a seven-fold class partition, (Sunday hottest, Monday hottest, etc.), priming an ignorance prior of 1/7. In four studies, we observed systematic partition dependence: Judgments made by participants presented with either case or class formulations of the same query were biased toward the corresponding ignorance prior.

A Regression Model of Subjective Probability

1999 ◽  
Vol 84 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Dixon ◽  
Immaculada B. Aban ◽  
Linda J. Hayes ◽  
Scott Harrington
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Slot Machine ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Cognitive Representation

The present study was conducted to examine if the cognitive representation of subjective probability could be better objectified. Subjects were required to play a commercial slot machine and afterwards make an estimation as to the machine's percentage of payback. A linear regression analysts indicated that such a subjective probability estimation is developed by a combination of the number of coins played, the number of coins won, and the number of winning games. These findings suggest that examining such environmental variables may provide an explanation for the development of subjective probabilities.

A Preferences-Based Approach to Subjective Probability Estimation

2013 ◽  
pp. 146-160
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Measurement Theory ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference

Following the ideas of professor Raiffa, we can have the same attitude toward the subjective probabilities as with the objective probabilities, and we can use them freely in the theoretical constructions of the von Newman Utility theory. This is the subject of the chapter, evaluation of the subjective probability with the use of the stochastic programming. The probability is measured in an absolute scale in the context of the probability and measurement theory. Because of this, we can use the gambling approach to estimate the DM’s subjective probability as in the utility evaluations. Once again the authors solve the problem of best separation by using stochastic methods of the sets Au* and Bu*, (Au*nBu*)?Ø)). The difference with the previous chapter is that now they seek the existence of number (p), and not of function. This makes the problem easier to solve. However, the question remains the same, elimination of errors and uncertainty, and the way this is achieved in the stochastic programming.

Modeling of CCLP in koryo extract production

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Chol ◽  
Ri Jun Il
Keyword(s):  
Process Control ◽  
Medical Care ◽  
State Space ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Effective Components ◽  
Counter Current

Abstract The modeling of counter-current leaching plant (CCLP) in Koryo Extract Production is presented in this paper. Koryo medicine is a natural physic to be used for a diet and the medical care. The counter-current leaching method is mainly used for producing Koryo medicine. The purpose of the modeling in the previous works is to indicate the concentration distributions, and not to describe the model for the process control. In literature, there are no nearly the papers for modeling CCLP and especially not the presence of papers that have described the issue for extracting the effective components from the Koryo medicinal materials. First, this paper presents that CCLP can be shown like the equivalent process consisting of two tanks, where there is a shaking apparatus, respectively. It allows leachate to flow between two tanks. Then, this paper presents the principle model for CCLP and the state space model on based it. The accuracy of the model has been verified from experiments made at CCLP in the Koryo Extract Production at the Gang Gyi Koryo Manufacture Factory.

Cylindrically Anisotropic Tubes Containing a Line Dislocation

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chung-Hao Wang
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Dislocation Line ◽  
Longitudinal Axis ◽  
The State ◽  
Fourier Series Expansion ◽  
General Solutions ◽  
Mixed Dislocation ◽  
Line Dislocation ◽  
Space Formulation ◽  
Cylindrically Anisotropic

An analytical solution of the problem of a cylindrically anisotropic tube which contains a line dislocation is presented in this study. The state space formulation in conjunction with the eigenstrain theory is proved to be a feasible and systematic methodology to analyze a tube with the existence of dislocations. The state space formulation which expediently groups the displacements and the cylindrical surface traction can construct a governing differential matrix equation. By using Fourier series expansion and the well developed theory of matrix algebra, the asymmetrical solutions are not only explicit but also compact in form. The dislocation considered in this study is a kind of mixed dislocation which is the combination of edge dislocations and a screw dislocation and the dislocation line is parallel to the longitudinal axis of the tube. The degeneracy of the eigen relation and the technique to determine the inverse of a singular matrix are thoroughly discussed, so that the general solutions can be applied to the case of isotropic tubes, which is one of the novel features of this research. The results of isotropic problems, which are belong to the general solutions, are compared with the well-established expressions in the literature. The satisfied correspondences of these comparisons indicate the validness of this study. A cylindrically orthotropic tube is also investigated as an example and the numerical results for the displacements and tangential stress on the outer surface are displayed. The effects on surface stresses due to the existence of a dislocation appear to have a characteristic of localized phenomenon.

scholarly journals Can Residential Greenspace Exposure Improve Pain Experience? A Comparison between Physical Visit and Image Viewing

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 918
Author(s):  
Hansen Li ◽  
Xing Zhang ◽  
Shilin Bi ◽  
Yang Cao ◽  
Guodong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Pain Threshold ◽  
Pain Perception ◽  
The State ◽  
Subjective Stress ◽  
Pain Experience ◽  
Scenic Beauty ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Pain Stimuli

Reducing the burden of pain via greenspace exposure is a rising research topic. However, insufficient evidence has been found in relation to the environmental effect itself. Residential greenspace, as a convenient but limited natural environment for urban dwellers, has benefits and services yet to be discovered. Therefore, the current study recruited 24 young adults to evaluate the effects of physical visit to, or image viewing of, residential greenspace on pain perception and related psychophysiological outcomes, via simulated pain. Pain threshold and tolerance were recorded via the level of pain stimuli, and pain intensity was evaluated using the Visual Analog Scale (VAS). The state scale of the State–Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-S) and two adjective pairs were employed to measure the state anxiety and subjective stress, respectively. Meanwhile, heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and blood pressure (BP) were measured to investigate physiological responses. Besides, Scenic Beauty Estimation (SBE) was also employed to assess participants’ preference regarding the experimental environments. The results revealed that visiting the greenspace significantly increased the pain threshold and tolerance, while no significant effect was observed for image viewing. On the other hand, no significant difference was observed in pain-related psychophysiological indices between the experimental settings, but significantly negative associations were found between the scores of SBE and subjective stress and state anxiety. In conclusion, the current study brings experimental evidence of improving pain experience via residential greenspace exposure, while the related psychophysiological benefits require further investigation.

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