Reverse-correlation reveals internal error-corrections during information-seeking

In the area of metacognition research, different methods have been used to study participants’ subjective sense of confidence in their choices. Among the most often used methods are explicit reports of subjective confidence, post-decision wagering and measuring additional info-seeking behavior. While all three methods are thought to measure confidence, they differ greatly in terms of practical execution and theoretical foundation. The method of reverse correlation has previously been used to determine which aspects of the stimulus influence decisions and confidence judgments. Here we compare the three methods of confidence assessment using reverse correlation analysis. Explicit reports and post-decision wagering revealed a positive association of stimulus information with choices and reduced decision weights for low-confidence trials. When confidence was assessed using the info-seeking method, low-confidence trials showed an inverted association with primary stimulus information. Using modelling of the behavioral data, we show how the reverse correlation results of all three methods can be explained by a simple model of confidence when internal error-corrections are allowed during seeking of additional information.

Shared Dynamics of Food Decision-Making in Mother-Child Dyads

This study explored risk parameters of obesity in food decision-making in mother-child dyads. We tested 45 children between 8–12 years and their biological mothers to measure the decision weights of food health attributes, the decision weights of food taste attributes, self-regulated food decisions, and self-reported self-control scores. Maternal body mass index (BMI), and children's BMI-percentiles-for-age were also measured. We found a positive correlation between children's and their mothers' decision weights of taste attributes in food decision-making. We also found a positive correlation between children's BMI %iles and their mothers' BMIs. Children with overweight/obesity demonstrated lower correlations between health and taste ratings and a lower percentage of self-regulated food decisions (i.e., resisting to eat tasty but unhealthy foods or choosing to eat not-tasty but healthy foods) than children with healthy weight. Our findings suggested that the decision weights of taste attributes and weight status shared similar patterns in mother-child dyads. Also, the findings suggested that establishing dynamics of unhealthy food-decision making may increase the risk of childhood obesity. Helping children to develop the dynamics of healthy food-decision making by increasing the importance of health while decreasing the importance of taste may promote resilience to susceptibility to unhealthy eating and weight gain.

Skepticism and Credulity: A Model and Applications to Political Spin, Belief Formation, and Decision Weights

In this paper I model a decision maker who forms beliefs and opinions using a dialectic heuristic that depends on their degree of skepticism or credulity. In an application to political spin, two competing parties choose how to frame commonly observed evidence. If the receiver is sufficiently credulous, equilibrium spin is maximally extreme and generates short, superficial news cycles. When receivers vary in their skepticism, there is partisan sorting by skepticism parameter: the more credulous group systematically favors one party and displays hostility to evidence and a media they see as biased. In behavioral applications in which the frames arise from the decision maker’s internal deliberation, a decision maker with the same credulous nature would display known behavioral anomalies in forming beliefs and forming decision weights from stated probabilities. The dialectic model therefore captures a simple psychological mechanism and matches closely some stylized facts across these three disparate applications.

From perception to inference: Utilization of probabilities as decision weights in children

In a probabilistic inference task (three probabilistic cues predict outcomes for two options), we examined decisions from 233 children (5–6 vs. 9–10 years). Contiguity (low vs. high; i.e., position of probabilistic information far vs. close to options) and demand for selectivity (low vs. high; i.e., showing predictions of desired vs. desired and undesired outcomes) were varied as configural aspects of the presentation format. Probability utilization was measured by the frequency of following the predictions of the highest validity cue in choice. High contiguity and low demand for selectivity strongly and moderately increased probability utilization, respectively. Children are influenced by presentation format when using probabilities as decision weights. They benefit from perception-like presentations that present probabilities and options as compounds.

Promoting Resilience to Food Commercials Decreases Susceptibility to Unhealthy Food Decision-Making

Children are vulnerable to adverse effects of food advertising. Food commercials are known to increase hedonic, taste-oriented, and unhealthy food decisions. The current study examined how promoting resilience to food commercials impacted susceptibility to unhealthy food decision-making in children. To promote resilience to food commercials, we utilized the food advertising literacy intervention intended to enhance cognitive skepticism and critical thinking, and decrease positive attitudes toward commercials. Thirty-six children aged 8–12 years were randomly assigned to the food advertising literacy intervention or the control condition. Eighteen children received four brief intervention sessions via video over 1 week period. In each session, children watched six food commercials with interspersed embedded intervention narratives. While watching food commercials and narratives, children were encouraged to speak their thoughts out loud spontaneously (“think-aloud”), which provided children's attitudes toward commercials. Eighteen children in the control condition had four control sessions over 1 week, and watched the same food commercials without intervention narratives while thinking aloud. The first and last sessions were held in the laboratory, and the second and third sessions were held at the children's homes. Susceptibility to unhealthy food decision-making was indicated by the decision weights of taste attributes, taste perception, food choices, ad libitum snacking, and cognitive and affective attitudes toward food commercials. As hypothesized, the intervention successfully decreased susceptibility to unhealthy food decision-making evidenced by reduced decision weights of the taste in food decisions, decreased tasty perception of unhealthy foods, and increased cognitive skepticism and critical thinking toward food commercials. In addition, as children's opinions assimilated to intervention narratives, their cognitive skepticism and critical thinking toward commercials increased. The aforementioned results were not shown in the control condition. However, this brief intervention was not enough to change actual food choices or food consumption. Results of this study suggest that promoting resilience to food commercials by enhancing cognitive skepticism and critical thinking effectively reduced children's susceptibility to unhealthy food-decision making.

Consistency of Pairwise Comparisons and Its Role in Optimal Detection of Customers’ Preferences

<p><strong>Purpose:</strong> This paper analyses a problem that originates in the weighted-average model, a mathematical construct introduced by the theory of multicriteria decision-making that can be used to detect what product a customer desires. The problem occurs because the model needs to know the weight the customer assigns to each product feature, aside from the levels of all the product characteristics, in order to calculate the overall value of the product. And since by one approach the weights can be estimated by optimization, the question arises which optimization criterion to select for the procedure, as different criteria will lead to different weights and thus to different product evaluations. The paper analyses the problem in connection with the so-called consistency of pairwise comparisons, which are utilized in the optimization and describe how much the customer prefers one product feature to another. The analysis shows that the problem of which criterion to use to calculate the weights can be eliminated if the pairwise comparisons are consistent. The analysis is performed within pre-defined criteria and is supplemented with case studies supporting the findings.</p><p><strong>Methodology/Approach:</strong> Linear algebra, optimization techniques, case studies.</p><p><strong>Findings:</strong> The results represent a prescription customers can use if they want to avoid the pitfalls of selecting a specific optimization criterion when informing the product maker about what they want based on the weighted-average model.</p><p><strong>Research Limitation/Implication:</strong> The results are related to a specific decision-making model, although that model is still very general and natural.</p><strong>Originality/Value of paper:</strong> The problem of selecting an optimization criterion to determine decision weights is not discussed in the theory.

Derivation and Application of the Subjective–Objective Probability Relationship from Entropy: The Entropy Decision Risk Model (EDRM)

The uncertainty, or entropy, of an atom of an ideal gas being in a certain energy state mirrors the way people perceive uncertainty in the making of decisions, uncertainty that is related to unmeasurable subjective probability. It is well established that subjects evaluate risk decisions involving uncertain choices using subjective probability rather than objective, which is usually calculated using empirically derived decision weights, such as those described in Prospect Theory; however, an exact objective–subjective probability relationship can be derived from statistical mechanics and information theory using Kullback–Leibler entropy divergence. The resulting Entropy Decision Risk Model (EDRM) is based upon proximity or nearness to a state and is predictive rather than descriptive. A priori EDRM, without factors or corrections, accurately aligns with the results of prior decision making under uncertainty (DMUU) studies, including Prospect Theory and others. This research is a first step towards the broader effort of quantifying financial, programmatic, and safety risk decisions in fungible terms, which applies proximity (i.e., subjective probability) with power utility to evaluate choice preference of gains, losses, and mixtures of the two in terms of a new parameter referred to as Prospect. To facilitate evaluation of the EDRM against prior studies reported in terms of the percentage of subjects selecting a choice, the Percentage Evaluation Model (PEM) is introduced to convert choice value results into subject response percentages, thereby permitting direct comparison of a utility model for the first time.