Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York

Sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay—an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York—yet their compound impacts are not well understood. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the mid- and late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4-year flood level. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, high-consequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

In recent centuries, human activities have greatly modified the geomorphology of coastal regions. However, studies of historical and possible future changes in coastal flood extremes typically ignore the influence of geomorphic change. Here, we quantify the influence of 20th-century man-made changes to Jamaica Bay, New York City, on present-day storm tides. We develop and validate a hydrodynamic model for the 1870s based on detailed maps of bathymetry, seabed characteristics, topography, and tide observations for use alongside a present-day model. Predominantly through dredging, landfill, and inlet stabilization, the average water depth of the bay increased from 1.7 to 4.5 m, tidal surface area decreased from 92 to 72 km2, and the inlet minimum cross-sectional area expanded from 4800 to 8900 m2. Total (freshwater plus salt) marsh habitat area has declined from 61 to 15 km2 and intertidal unvegetated habitat area from 17 to 4.6 km2. A probabilistic flood hazard assessment with simulations of 144 storm events reveals that the landscape changes caused an increase of 0.28 m (12 %) in the 100-year storm tide, even larger than the influence of global sea level rise of about 0.23 m since the 1870s. Specific anthropogenic changes to estuary depth and area as well as inlet depth and width are shown through targeted modeling and dynamics-based considerations to be the most important drivers of increasing storm tides.

Ship Wakes and Their Potential Impacts on Salt Marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York

Aerial photographs and field studies have revealed a rapid deterioration of salt marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York. Past studies have linked marsh deterioration to sediment supply, water quality, storms, and sea level rise. Yet ship wakes and their potential impacts on marsh edge erosion are not understood. Here, we study ship wake transformation in Jamaica Bay and their potential impacts on salt marsh erosion. We apply short-time, Fourier transform (spectrogram) on existing water level measurements collected during 2015 and 2016. Our analysis reveals the existence of typical wake components. Among the observed wake components is a long wave component which propagates over shallow areas where short wind waves do not reach. We further implement a phase-resolving wave model to study wake transformation in the vicinity of salt marsh islands Little Egg and Big Egg and the consequent morphological changes. The selected marshes are located near a deep shipping channel and a ferry station, making them exposed to wakes of vessels with different size and sailing speed. A series of numerical experiments show that ship wakes can result in erosion spots near the border of deep shipping channels and their banks, i.e., edges of mudflats and marsh substrates. We show that the cumulative erosion increases rapidly with the number of vessels that pass through the study area. For instance, the magnitude of final bed erosion after the passage of 10 vessels is two to three times larger than that after the passage of five vessels.

Storm Tide Amplification and Habitat Changes due to Urbanization of a Lagoonal Estuary

In recent centuries, human activities have greatly modified the geomorphology of coastal regions. However, studies of historical and possible future changes in coastal flood extremes typically ignore the influence of geomorphic change. Here, we quantify the influence of 20th Century manmade changes to Jamaica Bay, New York City, on present-day storm tides. We develop and validate a hydrodynamic model for the 1870s, based on detailed maps of bathymetry, seabed characteristics, topography, and tide observations, for use alongside a present-day model. Predominantly through dredging, landfill, and inlet stabilization, the average water depth of the bay increased from 1.7 to 4.5 m, tidal surface area decreased from 92 to 72 km2, and the inlet minimum cross-sectional area expanded from 4800 to 8900 m2. Total (freshwater plus salt) marsh habitat area has declined from 61 to 15 km2 and intertidal unvegetated habitat area from 17 to 4.6 km2. A probabilistic flood hazard assessment with simulations of 144 storm events reveals that the landscape changes caused an increase of 0.28 m (12 %) in the 100-year storm tide, even larger than the influence of global sea level rise of about 0.23 m since the 1870s. Specific anthropogenic changes to estuary depth, area and inlet depth and width are shown through targeted modeling and dynamics-based considerations to be the most important drivers of increasing storm tides.

Composition of estuarine sediment microbiome from a chronosequence of restored urban salt marshes

ABSTRACTSalt marshes play an important role in the global nutrient cycle. The sediments in these systems harbor diverse and complex bacterial communities possessing metabolic capacities that provide ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and removal. On the East Coast of the United States, salt marshes have been experiencing degradation due to anthropogenic stressors. Salt marsh islands within Jamaica Bay, New York City (USA), are surrounded by a large highly urbanized watershed and have declined in area. Restoration efforts have been enacted to reduce further loss, but little is known about how microbial communities develop following restoration activities, or how processes such as nitrogen cycling are impacted. Sediment samples were collected at two sampling depths from five salt marsh islands to characterize the bacterial communities found in marsh sediment including a post-restoration chronosequence of 3-12 years. We used 16s rRNA amplicon sequencing to define alpha and beta diversity, taxonomic composition, and predicted metabolic profile of each sediment sample. We found significant differences in alpha diversity between sampling depths, and significant differences in beta diversity, taxonomic composition, and predicted metabolic capacity among the five sampling locations. The youngest restored site and the degraded natural sampling site exhibited the most distinct communities among the five sites. Our findings suggest that while the salt marsh islands are located in close proximity to each other, they harbor distinct bacterial communities that can be correlated with the post-restoration age, marsh health, and other environmental factors such as availability of organic carbon.IMPORTANCESalt marshes play a critical role in the global nutrient cycle due to sediment bacteria and their metabolic capacities. Many East Coast salt marshes have experienced significant degradation over recent decades, thought largely to be due to anthropogenic stressors such as nitrogen loading, urban development, and sea-level rise. Salt marsh islands in Jamaica Bay (Queens/Brooklyn NY) are exposed to high water column nitrogen due to wastewater effluent. Several receding marsh islands have been subjected to restoration efforts to mitigate this loss. Little is known about the effect marsh restoration has on bacterial communities, their metabolic capacity, or how they develop post-restoration. Here we describe the bacterial communities found in marsh islands including a post-restoration chronosequence of 3-12 years and one degraded marsh island that remains unrestored.