Predicting the Habitat Suitability of Melaleuca cajuputi Based on the MaxEnt Species Distribution Model

Gelam tree or Melaleuca cajuputi (M. cajuputi) is an important species for the local economy as well as coastal ecosystem protection in Terengganu, Malaysia. This study aimed at producing a current habitat suitability map and predicting future potential habitat distribution for M. cajuputi in Terengganu based on Species distribution modeling (SDM) using the Maximum Entropy principle. Our modeling results show that for the current potential distribution of M. cajuputi species, only 10.82% (1346.5 km2) of Terengganu area is suitable habitat, which 0.96% of the areas are under high, 2.44% moderate and 7.42% poor habitat suitability. The model prediction for future projection shows that the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi would decrease significantly in the year 2050 under RCP 4.5 where the largest contraction from suitable to unsuitable habitat area is about 442.1 km2 and under RCP 2.6 is the highest expansion from unsuitable to suitable habitat area (267.5 km2). From the future habitat suitability projection, we found that the habitat suitability in Marang would degrade significantly under all climate scenarios, while in Setiu the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi remains stable throughout the climate change scenarios. The modeling prediction shows a significant influence on the soil properties, temperature, and precipitation during monsoon months. These results could benefit conservationist and policymakers for decision making. The present model could also give a perception into potential habitat suitability of M. cajuputi in the future and to improve our understanding of the species’ response under the changing climate.

Influence of anthropogenic factors on the ecology of Melanocorypha calandra and Alauda arvensis in depressions of Dnipro — Molochna

The research was carried out for 3 years in the steppe biotopes of the bottoms of the Ahaymany, Barnashivsky, Green, Big Chapelsk, and Small Chapelsk depressions of the Dnipro — Molochna interfluve. Based on visual inspection and processing of space images, the degree of anthropogenic transformation of these ecosystems is analyzed. The highest percentage of plowing is characteristic of the Ahaymany depression, which occurred in the last 10 years. Among the factors that significantly affect the nesting birds of the steppe complex are also the continuous low mowing of grass (Green depression) and overgrazing of livestock — Small Chapelsk depression. The nesting density of background steppe species was determined, the highest density of Alauda arvensis in different years is characteristic of Ahaymany (245,2 pairs/km2) and Barnashivsky depression (211,2 pairs/km2), and Melanocorypha calandra — for the Big Chapelsk depression (140,1 pairs/km2). Stable is only the territory of the Big Chapelsk depression the protected regime under moderate grazing load of wild ungulates. A positive correlation was established between the values of steppe habitat area and Alauda arvensis nesting in the Ahaymany, Barnashivsky, Small Chapelsk, and Green depressions and, accordingly, a negative dependence for Melanocorypha calandra.

Cooperative Management of Ecosystem Services: Coalition Formation, Landscape Structure and Policies

A growing body of literature shows that full-cooperation among farmers to manage productive ecosystem services would yield gains with respect to uncoordinated approaches. The public good feature of these ecosystem services may, however, hinder the emergence of a cooperative solution at the landscape scale. In this paper, we introduce in a coalition formation game a spatially-explicit bioeconomic model of fruit pollination, where pollinaton depends on the distance to the choosen location of natural habitats. We analyse: (i) which coalitions are stable; (ii) what benefits they provide; (iii) how cooperation depends on the initial landscape structure; and (iv) how policy instruments affect cooperation. The theoretical model presents the rationality of cooperation but, due to the detailed heterogeneity and complex spatial interactions among farms, we use a numerical example to determine the stable coalitions. We find that only small coalitions are stable and that the benefits of cooperation decrease when the spatial autocorrelation of fruit tree covers increase. Policy instruments can increase the interest for cooperation but per-hectare payments and minimum participation rules may reduce the habitat area at the margin (by decreasing the stability of coalitions). Price premium for the coalition members increase the habitat area but its budget-effectiveness decreases as the spatial autocorrelation of fruit tree covers increase.

Analysis of Changes in Suitable Habitat Areas of Paridae through Rooftop Greening Simulation—Case Study of Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea

As many people live in cities that lack green space, biodiversity in such areas is decreasing. Suwon, the study site, a city that strives to improve its biodiversity, is close to the capital city of the Republic of Korea (ROK), and has a large population. This study aims to identify habitat-suitable areas using the longitudinal distribution model in Suwon-si, examine habitat changes when rooftop greening scenarios are applied to various use areas, and distinguish efficient use areas to expand the number of forms. To establish a rooftop greening creation scenario, the area was calculated based on the rooftop greening promotion plan in the metropolitan area, and a representative use area where rooftop greening can be applied was selected. To generate a scenario for creating rooftop greening, the property of the green area was assigned to the corresponding use area, and it was produced as an environmental variable, while the species distribution model was driven. As a result of the study, the area of increase in habitat area according to the rooftop greening for each usage area was derived, and the efficiency of the increase in habitat area compared to the rooftop greening area for each usage area was derived. To improve biodiversity in Suwon-si, rooftop greening in residential areas was found to be the most efficient, and rooftop greening efficiency in commercial areas was the lowest. It is expected that information on the increase and efficiency of the habitat of the wild birds due to rooftop greening by area of use derived from this study will help establish a rooftop greening plan and support decision-making to promote biodiversity in the city.

Variation in the potential distribution of Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) globally and in Pakistan under current and future climatic conditions

Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a polyphagous moth species that mainly damages various crops and ornamental plants. This widely distributed pest is particularly a nuisance in Pakistan where it damages many crops, e.g., wheat and vegetables. To assess the risk of damage by this moth, we used the CLIMEX model to predict the distribution of A. ipsilon under current and future climatic conditions. Using the literature data, we collected information on the biology and ecology of A. ipsilon relevant for modelling the distribution of this species in Pakistan and worldwide under current and future climatic conditions. Our results revealed that under future climatic scenarios, the highly favourable habitat area of A. ipsilon (ecoclimatic index EI > 30) would decrease globally from 19% at present to 14% in the future, and the moderately favourable habitat area (0 < EI ≤ 15) would increase from 21 to 29%. We found that the northern areas of Pakistan will become highly suitable for the establishment of A. ipsilon. Under the current climatic conditions, the optimal habitats of A. ipsilon (EI > 30) comprised 10% and moderately favourable habitats (EI < 17) accounted for 25% of the total land area in Pakistan. Under future climatic scenarios, the optimal habitat area of the moth in Pakistan could decrease to 5% and the moderately favourable habitat area could cover 63% of the entire land area. The results can be applied in the protection of various crops and ornamental plants against A. ipsilon in Pakistan as well as worldwide.

Mathematical Model for COVID-19 Management in Crowded Settlements and High-Activity Areas

This paper develops and analyses a population density-dependent mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in crowded settlements such as refugee camps, schools, markets and churches. The model quantifies the potential impact of physical/social distancing and population density on the disease burden. Results reveal that with no fatalities and no infected entrants, the reproduction numbers associated with asymptomatic and symptomatic cases are inversely proportional to; the habitat area size, and the efforts employed in tracing and hospitalising these cases. The critical habitat area below which the disease dies out is directly proportion to the time taken to identify and hospitalise infected individuals. Results also show that disease persistence in the community is guaranteed even with minimal admission of infected individuals. Our results further show that as the level of compliance to standard operating procedures (SOPs) increases, then the disease prevalence peaks are greatly reduced and delayed. Therefore, proper adherence to SOPs such as use of masks, physical distancing measures and effective contact tracing should be highly enforced in crowded settings if COVID-19 is to be mitigated.

Optimization of Ecological Water Supplement Scheme for Improved Suitable Habitat Area for Rare Migratory Birds in Nature Reserves Using Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

The optimization of ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR), using an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP), still experiences problems with fuzzy uncertainties and the wide scope of the obtained optimization schemes. These two limitations pose a high risk of system failure causing high decision risk for decision-makers and render it difficult to further undertake optimization schemes respectively. Therefore, an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model derived from an IPTSP model was constructed to address the random variable, the interval uncertainties and the fuzzy uncertainties in the water management system in the present study, to reduce decision risk and narrow down the scope of the optimization schemes. The constructed IPFTSP model was subsequently applied to the optimization of the ecological water supplement scheme of MNNR under different scenarios, to maximize the recovered habitat area and the carrying capacity for rare migratory water birds. As per the results of the IPFTSP model, the recovered habitat areas for rare migratory birds under low, medium and high flood flow scenarios were (14.06, 17.88) × 103, (14.92, 18.96) × 103 and (15.83, 19.43) × 103 ha, respectively, and the target value was (14.60, 18.47) × 103 ha with a fuzzy membership of (0.01, 0.83). Fuzzy membership reflects the possibility level that the model solutions satisfy the target value and the corresponding decision risk. We further observed that the habitat area recovered by the optimization schemes of the IPFTSP model was significantly increased compared to the recommended scheme, and the increases observed were (5.22%, 33.78%), (11.62%, 41.88%) and (18.44%, 45.39%). In addition, the interval widths of the recovered habitat areas in the IPFTSP model were reduced by 17.15%, 17.98% and 23.86%, in comparison to those from the IPTSP model. It was revealed that the IPFTSP model, besides generating the optimal decision schemes under different scenarios for decision-makers to select and providing decision space to adjust the decision schemes, also shortened the decision range, thereby reducing the decision risk and the difficulty of undertaking decision schemes. In addition, the fuzzy membership obtained from the IPFTSP model, reflecting the relationship among the possibility level, the target value, and the decision risk, assists the decision-makers in planning the ecological water supplement scheme with a preference for target value and decision risk.