RISK ANALYSIS OF OFFSHORE TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT IN ARCTIC WATERS

A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during navigation in arctic waters. Detailed fault trees for three possible ship accident scenarios in arctic transits are developed and represented as bowties. Factors related to cold and harsh conditions and their effects on grounding, foundering, and collision are considered as part of this study. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker navigating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The methodology is implemented in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainties arisen from historical data and expert judgments involved in the risk analysis.

A formalism for modelling traction forces and cell shape evolution during cell migration in various biomedical processes

The phenomenological model for cell shape deformation and cell migration Chen (BMM 17:1429–1450, 2018), Vermolen and Gefen (BMM 12:301–323, 2012), is extended with the incorporation of cell traction forces and the evolution of cell equilibrium shapes as a result of cell differentiation. Plastic deformations of the extracellular matrix are modelled using morphoelasticity theory. The resulting partial differential differential equations are solved by the use of the finite element method. The paper treats various biological scenarios that entail cell migration and cell shape evolution. The experimental observations in Mak et al. (LC 13:340–348, 2013), where transmigration of cancer cells through narrow apertures is studied, are reproduced using a Monte Carlo framework.

Inclusive and exclusive neutrino-nucleus cross sections and the reconstruction of the interaction kinematics

We present a full kinematic analysis of neutrino-nucleus charged current quasielastic interactions based on the Local Fermi Gas model and the Random Phase Approximation. The model was implemented in the NEUT Monte Carlo framework, which allows us to investigate potentially measurable observables, including hadron distributions. We compare the predictions simultaneously to the most recent T2K and MINERvA charged current (CC) inclusive, CC0π and transverse kinematic-imbalance variable results. We pursuit a microscopic interpretation of the relevant reaction mechanisms, with the aim to achieving in neutrino oscillation experiments a correct reconstruction of the incoming neutrino kinematics, free of conceptual biasses. Such study is of the utmost importance for the ambitious experimental program which is underway to precisely determine neutrino properties, test the three-generation paradigm, establish the order of mass eigenstates and investigate leptonic CP violation.

Precise predictions for photon pair production matched to parton showers in GENEVA

We present a new calculation for the production of isolated photon pairs at the LHC with $$ {\mathrm{NNLL}}_{{\mathcal{T}}_0}^{\prime } $$ NNLL T 0 ′ +NNLO accuracy. This is the first implementation within the Geneva Monte Carlo framework of a process with a nontrivial Born-level definition which suffers from QED singularities. Throughout the computation we use a smooth-cone isolation algorithm to remove such divergences. The higher-order resummation of the 0-jettiness resolution variable $$ {\mathcal{T}}_0 $$ T 0 is based on a factorisation formula derived within Soft-Collinear Effective Theory which predicts all of the singular, virtual and real NNLO corrections. Starting from this precise parton-level prediction and by employing the Geneva method, we provide fully showered and hadronised events using Pythia8, while retaining the NNLO QCD accuracy for observables which are inclusive over the additional radiation. We compare our final predictions to LHC data at 7 TeV and find good agreement.