Forecasting of minimum temperature over Gangtok

A study has been conducted to assess day-to-day changes, departure and persistence of minimum temperature and the frequency of cold wave and severe cold wave over Gangtok for five winter months i.e., November-March for the years 1969 to 1992. Regression models have also been formulated to forecast minimum temperature with the knowledge of dew point, cloud amount, maximum temperature and minimum temperature recorded on previous day. In case of changes, ‘little change’ and ‘no change’ constitute about four-fifth of total changes. The cases of nearly normal were found maximum when departure of minimum temperature from normal was considered. Frequency of cold wave and severe cold wave has been recorded more in January and February respectively. It has been observed that there is a gradual fall in the percentage frequency with the increase in the magnitude of variation. Regression model gives good results from November to February.

Effects of Extreme Ambient Temperature on Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review

Introduction: Extreme weather or climate, including heat waves and cold waves, is considered a health issue causing adverse effects on health, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), mortality and morbidity. Thus, this systematic review aimed to study the impacts of extreme ambient temperature on cardiovascular outcomes. Material and Methods: This study was carried out based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol. Papers about the ambient temperature and cardiovascular outcomes were searched in the scientific database, including ISI, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar, from January 1970 up to the end of 2020. We used the key terms, such as “heat wave”, “cold wave”, “extreme event”, “cardiovascular disease”, “mortality”, and “morbidity”. The thematic analysis method was used to determine all themes and analyze the data. Results: Among the 7631 searched and extracted papers, 20 articles met the eligibility criteria for including the process of final analysis. Effects of extreme events included mortality, morbidity, and hospitalization due to CVD. A relationship between extreme events and CVD mortality was confirmed for cerebrovascular diseases, including congestive heart failure (CHF), ischemic heart diseases (IHD), myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrhythmia, coronary heart disease (CHD), out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and blood pressure. Conclusion: The present study indicated the impact of extreme ambient temperature on CVD outcomes. The findings provided adaptation and preventive measures and strategies which can be used for CVD patients and managers to prevent CVD due to ambient temperature.

Climatology and trend of cold waves over India during 1971-2010

Using Cold Wave (CW) information of 86 stations from Indian main land during the cold weather season (November to March) for the last 40 years (1971-2010), various statistical aspects of cold waves (CWs) and severe cold waves (SCWs) such as climatology and trend were examined. The link of CWs/SCWs with ENSO phases (La Nina & El Nino) was also examined. It was observed that many stations from north, northwest, east and central India together named as core CW zone (CCZ) experienced highest number of CW/SCW waves with relatively higher frequency during January. Noticeable decrease (increase) in the frequency and spatial coverage of CW/SCW days compared to their climatological values were observed during the El Nino (La Nina) years. There were significant decreasing trends in the CW/SCW days over most of the stations from CCZ. The total number of CW/SCW days/per decade over CCZ showed noticeable decrease during the recent decades 1991-2000 and 2001-2010, which coincided with the warmest decades for the country as well as for the globe. Associated with intense and persistent CW/SCW events, large human mortality were reported during some years of the study period.

Magnitude, frequency, trends of heat and cold waves in recent decades and impact assessment in wheat: the case of north Bihar, India

The climatological distribution of heat and cold waves of two important agro-climatic zones zone-I (North Alluvial Plain), zone-II (North East Alluvial Plain) of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin of Bihar state of India was analyzed. We used series of daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 1969-2015 of five stations. Results reveal that zone-I and zone-II experienced 248/184 and 275/199average number of heat and cold events, respectively. The trend analysis exhibited almost similar results for both the zones. The zone-I experienced on an average 4.22 and 7.22 heat and cold wave days per season (hot & cold weather period), respectively. There was a non-significant increasing trend @ +0.04/year for heat waves and significant decreasing trend for cold waves (-0.13/year). Zone-II on an average experienced 3 and 12 HW and CW events per season (hot and cold weather period), respectively. In this zone, heat waves were found to be increasing @ +0.11/year, whereas, significant decreasing trend was found for cold waves (+0.32/year). Study also revealed that, heat waves were more frequent and longer in June and May in zone-I and zone-II, respectively. Whereas, cold waves were more freq uent and longer in January for both the zones. These extreme events have profound impact on wheat crop if coincides with its critical stages. However, shifting planting dates and adoption of heat tolerant varieties may help in minimizing the negative impact of these extreme events.

Extreme Weather Conditions and Cardiovascular Hospitalizations in Southern Brazil

This research concerns the identification of a pattern between the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, such as cold waves and heat waves, and hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), in the University Hospital of Santa Maria (HUSM) in southern Brazil between 2012 and 2017. The research employed the field experiment method to measure the biometeorological parameters associated with hospital admissions in different seasons, such as during extreme weather conditions such as a cold wave (CW) or a heat wave (HW), using five thermal comfort indices: physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), new standard effective temperature (SET), predicted mean vote (PMV), effective temperatures (ET), and effective temperature with wind (ETW). The hospitalizations were recorded as 0.775 and 0.726 admissions per day for the winter and entire study periods, respectively. The records for extreme events showed higher admission rates than those on average days. The results also suggest that emergency hospitalizations for heart diseases during extreme weather events occurred predominantly on days with thermal discomfort. Furthermore, there was a particularly high risk of hospitalization for up to seven days after the end of the CW. Further analyses showed that cardiovascular hospitalizations were higher in winter than in summer, suggesting that CWs are more life threatening in wintertime.

Anticipation Mechanism for Cold Wave: Forecast Based Financing a Case Study in the Peruvian Andes

In June 2018, the Peruvian provinces of Arequipa and Puno in the southern Andean region were affected by heavy snowfall, which caused severe damage to people and livelihoods in several communities. Using the Forecast-based Financing approach, the Peruvian Red Cross implemented its pre-defined early action protocol before this event, after receiving an extreme snowfall warning (Level 4) from the Peruvian meteorological service. Here, we provide a case study of the approach and event itself, documenting the decision-making thresholds as well as the actions taken. This warning activated the thresholds established in the protocol, and Peruvian Red Cross prioritized 10 communities for pre-disaster support based on the forecasted severity of the event in combination with vulnerability and exposure information. The activation took place 2 days before the extreme snowfall in the communities, and the Red Cross distributed veterinary kits for 50 heads of cattle per family, tarpaulins, tool kits to install a temporary awning for alpacas to protect them from the cold wind and snow, protection kits for alpaca herders and warm clothing for children under five, pregnant women, the elderly, and people with chronic and infectious diseases in 430 highly vulnerable households. This article presents the results of a household survey following the impact of the extreme snowfall. We document the early actions taken by these communities to protect their livelihoods, health, and assets. The evaluation also presents descriptive statistics of household-level outcomes for households receiving pre-snowfall support and those that did not receive any intervention or only received post-disaster assistance. While most households took action to protect their assets, there were fewer extreme losses of alpaca herds reported in the communities who received the early support, and these communities also reported fewer adults suffering from respiratory illnesses. More in-depth research on this type of early action is necessary on a wider scale, especially to evaluate the utility of different support measures and the necessary quantity of support needed. This case study can inform government, civil society, and humanitarian actors of how early action is happening before disasters occur and provide a direction for further investment in research and practice to make use of hydro-meteorological forecasts for the benefit of the most vulnerable.