scholarly journals The Impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, food prices, and food security

Q Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayson Beckman ◽  
Felix Baquedano ◽  
Amanda Countryman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Cent Increase

Abstract COVID-19 has led to a wealth of research examining possible impacts; however, potential impacts to food security have received much less attention. We use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts of COVID-19 using observed changes from 2020 (September) in unemployment, trade, oil prices, and production to inform our model. Estimated GDP and food price changes are then used as inputs into the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model which estimates changes in food consumption, and food gaps in developing countries. Results indicate that the COVID-19 lockdowns lead to a decrease in global GDP of 7.2 per cent, and a decrease in grain prices of 9 per cent. These changes lead to an increase in the number of food-insecure people in 2020 of 211 million (a 27.8 per cent increase). We also perform a sensitivity analysis, providing a lower and upper bound of potential impacts from COVID-19.

Food and Nutrition Security in Rural Bihar: Dimensions and Determinants

Social Change ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 396-419
Author(s):  
Swati Dutta ◽  
Sunil Kumar Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Dietary Diversity ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
Food And Nutrition Security ◽  
Nutrition Security ◽  
Food And Nutrition

The level of food diversity in any household is an indicator of its healthy dietary habits. It depends on demographic and socio-economic conditions, geographic location, consumption habits and expenditure, cultural practices, income, food prices and the availability, access and utilisation of food. Against this backdrop, our study analyses the pattern of food consumption, dietary diversity, food frequency and the Recommended Dietary Allowance in 12 villages located in 6 districts of Bihar to understand the socio-economic determinants of a household’s food security. The results show that the diversity of food consumption is mainly dependent on the consumption of cereals across various socio-economic classes. Our analysis also emphasises the importance of schemes like the Public Distribution System which has a positive influence on food security outcomes of a household. The logistic regression results show that if the household belongs to the richest consumption class, with better education levels and more salaried members, then the probability of better food and nutrition security is high. In contrast, the low social status of a household, especially those from a Scheduled Caste background, will reveal reduced household food security.

scholarly journals Impacts of Changes in Exchange Rate and International Prices on Agriculture and Economy of the Sudan: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Omer Elgaili Elsheikh ◽  
Azharia Abdelbagi Elbushra ◽  
Ali A. A. Salih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Fast Food ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
International Prices

<p>Changes in exchange rate and international prices greatly affect food availability, the agricultural sector, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study quantifies the effects of change in exchange rate and world prices on Sudan’s agricultural production, imports, exports, and GDP. Special emphasis has been placed on sorghum and wheat, the main food grains. A Standard Computable General Equilibrium model has been developed and used for the analysis. The main objective is to contribute to policy-making process for enhancing food security and social welfare in the Sudan<strong>.</strong></p> <p>Currency depreciation would reduce wheat imports and increase its domestic production, increase sorghum export, increase domestic output and export of sesame and cotton, and improves GDP; and vice versa for appreciation. Appreciation favors urban (wheat) consumers, whereas depreciation favors rural (sorghum) consumers.</p> <p>Increasing world price of wheat would decrease its imports, whereas that of sorghum would encourage its production and export, and increase domestic food prices. GDP decreases due to investment reduction<strong>. </strong></p> <p>It is recommended that wheat import should be conditioned on hard currency availability and food gap, while maintaining stable exchange rate that strike a balance between encouraging sorghum exports and wheat imports. It is also recommended to encourage innovation of fast food from traditional grains to curb the shift to wheat consumption.</p>

scholarly journals The Challenge of Feeding the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dániel Fróna ◽  
János Szenderák ◽  
Mónika Harangi-Rákos
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Intensive Farming ◽  
Growing Population

The aim of the present research is to provide a comprehensive review about the current challenges related to food security and hidden hunger. Issues are presented according to major factors, such as growing population, changing dietary habits, water efficiency, climate change and volatile food prices. These factors were compiled from reports of major international organizations and from relevant scientific articles on the subject. Collecting the results and presenting them in an accessible manner may provide new insight for interested parties. Accessibility of data is extremely important, since food security and its drivers form a closely interconnected but extremely complex network, which requires coordinated problem solving to resolve issues. According to the results, the demand for growing agricultural products has been partly met by increasing cultivated land in recent decades. At the same time, there is serious competition for existing agricultural areas, which further limits the extension of agricultural land in addition to the natural constraints of land availability. Agricultural production needs to expand faster than population growth without further damage to the environment. The driving force behind development is sustainable intensive farming, which means the more effective utilization of agricultural land and water resources. Current global trends in food consumption are unsustainable, analyzed in terms of either public health, environmental impacts or socio-economic costs. The growing population should strive for sustainable food consumption, as social, environmental and health impacts are very important in this respect as well. To this end, the benefits of consuming foods that are less harmful to the environment during production are also to be emphasized in the scope of consumption policy and education related to nutrition as opposed to other food types, the production of which causes a major demand for raw materials.

Impacts of COVID-19 on agriculture and food security in developing countries: potential mitigation strategies.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (016) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kehinde O. Erinle
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food

Abstract Despite efforts to reduce global food insecurity, success has been limited in many developing countries due to numerous inherent problems. The challenges and vulnerabilities associated with food security in these countries have been exacerbated by the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As a rapid response strategy to minimize the coronavirus' spread, countries have put in place different forms of movement restrictions, locally and globally, which have therefore affected agricultural production, food availability, and accessibility. Focusing on the four pillars of food security, this paper provides an overview of the pandemic's impacts on food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability drawing examples from different developing countries. The report also suggests some response strategies that could be adopted or (where already in existence) strengthened to promote food security in developing countries, during and after a pandemic/crisis. The strategies of major concern to ensure continued availability and accessibility of food during and after a pandemic/crisis include (i) establishment of community-based food networks, (ii) food and agriculture data collection and maintenance, (iii) stabilizing food prices, (iv) infrastructural development for food security, (v) increasing investment in agricultural research and policies, (vi) adopting modern farming practices, and (vii) reduction and management of agricultural and food waste.

Availability, access and utilization

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 322-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Botti Abbade
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Utilization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Logistics Performance Index

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the association between the levels of food utilization (FU), food availability, economic access (EA) and physical access (PA) to food in developing countries – the main dimensions underlying the concept of food security. Design/methodology/approach This study analyzed available data from 57 developing countries. The variables investigated were: food availability (FA), EA to food measured through economic development, PA to food using the Logistics Performance Index as a proxy, and FU. The paper uses factorial, correlation and cluster analyses. Findings The results show that the dimensions of food security are strongly and positively correlated. PA has a moderate association with FU (ρS=0.5338 [p<0.001]; ρP=0.4252; [p<0.01]). EA has a strong association with FU (ρS=0.6998 [p<0.001]; ρP=0.6404; [p<0.01]). Moreover, cluster analysis suggests that some countries present significant urgencies regarding some of the food security dimensions considered. Research limitations/implications Cluster analysis has some limitations regarding the interpretations of the key findings. Moreover, many factors affect food security promotion; this paper addresses just a few of them. Practical implications Through a better alignment of food security dimensions worldwide, policy makers, as well as private sector actors, might achieve better conditions to reduce food waste or loss, supply a wider diversity of foods, reduce adverse environmental impacts, reduce logistics costs and, finally, reduce food prices. Originality/value This study outlines specific fragilities regarding the main dimensions of food security in developing economies. Thus, this study highlights that some countries need to focus urgently on certain, specific dimensions in order to promote the food security for their populaces.

THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD/CANCÚN AGREEMENTS EMISSION PLEDGES FOR 2020: EXPLORING ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 53-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROB DELLINK ◽  
GREGORY BRINER ◽  
CHRISTA CLAPP
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Average Global Temperature ◽  
Copenhagen Accord ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Many countries have pledged targets or actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; these have been listed in the Appendices to the Copenhagen Accord and, at the time of writing, are being transferred to the UNFCCC Cancún Agreements. This analysis examines the costs and effectiveness of these pledges, as well as the potential for fiscal revenue, using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that while the pledges are an important and welcome start to a global solution, they are not ambitious enough for a pathway to limit average global temperature increase to below 2°C. This paper estimates the costs of action at around 0.3% of GDP for both Annex I and non-Annex I countries and 0.5–0.6% of global real income. Furthermore, the fiscal revenue potential can exceed 1% of GDP for the Annex I countries if market-based instruments are used. Sensitivity analysis shows that allowing more offsets can reduce the costs of actions substantially, as can direct linking of carbon markets across Annex I countries.

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