Who Will Die in the ICU? APACHE II, ROC Curve Analysis, and, of Course, Cleone

JAMA ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 261 (9) ◽  
pp. 1279
Author(s):  
Roy M. Poses
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

scholarly journals Circulating Long Noncoding RNAs Positively Correlate with the Increased Risk, Elevated Severity and Unfavorable Prognosis in the Sepsis Patients

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yuan ◽  
Limian Cao ◽  
Junjie Bao ◽  
Yutao Zha ◽  
Shi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Septic Shock ◽  
Inflammatory Cytokines ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Sofa Score ◽  
Noncoding Rnas ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Long Noncoding Rnas ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the correlation of circulating long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) expression with disease risk, severity, inflammatory cytokines levels and prognosis in patients with sepsis. Methods Differential expression profiles of lncRNA in the serum of sepsis rats were screened by high-throughput transcriptome sequencing. Homologous lncRNAs in the upregulation group were identified by homology analysis in rats and humans. The expression differences of these homologous lncRNAs in the serum of 176 sepsis patients and 176 healthy controls (HCs) were detected using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). And inflammatory cytokines levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the diagnostic and prognosis values. Spearman correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the variables. Follow-up was performed to observe the 28-day mortality. Results Among the screened differentially up-regulated lncRNAs, only two lncRNAs were homologous in rats and humans, which in human named PKN2-antisense RNA 1 (PKN2-AS1) and AC068888.1, respectively. Those two lncRNAs were significantly increased in patients with sepsis compared with those in HCs (P < 0.001), in patients with septic shock compared with those no septic shock (P < 0.001), and in non-survivors compared with survivors (P < 0.001). And those two lncRNAs were positively correlated with sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, lactate (Lac), c-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) in sepsis patients. Likelihood ratio forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that high lncRNA AC068888.1 expression was an independent risk factor for septic shock (P < 0.001) and unfavorable prognosis (P = 0.006), but high lncRNA PKN2-AS1 expression was only for unfavorable prognosis (P = 0.019). The ROC curve exhibited a significant predictive value for sepsis risk with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.879 and 0.842, respectively. For predicting septic shock risk, combining lncRNA AC068888.1 with SOFA score and Lac level, the ROC curve analysis significantly improved the predictability (AUC = 0.882). For predicting 28-day death risk, combining those two lncRNAs with SOFA and APACHE II scores, the ROC curve analysis also significantly improved the predictability (AUC = 0.860). The Kaplan–Meier curves indicated that the survival probability was much worse with those two lncRNAs high expression compared to low expression in patients with sepsis (P < 0.001). Conclusion The circulating absolute expression levels of lncRNA PKN2-AS1 and AC068888.1 in the serum may be used for the early diagnosis, clinical severity evaluation and prognosis of sepsis.

Acute heart failure: predicting early in-hospital outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Santos ◽  
S Paula ◽  
I Almeida ◽  
H Santos ◽  
H Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Patients (P) with acute heart failure (AHF) are a heterogeneous population. Risk stratification at admission may help predict in-hospital complications and needs. The Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure score (GWTG-HF) predicts in-hospital mortality (M) of P admitted with AHF. ACTION ICU score is validated to estimate the risk of complications requiring ICU care in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. Objective To validate ACTION-ICU score in AHF and to compare ACTION-ICU to GWTG-HF as predictors of in-hospital M (IHM), early M [1-month mortality (1mM)] and 1-month readmission (1mRA), using real-life data. Methods Based on a single-center retrospective study, data collected from P admitted in the Cardiology department with AHF between 2010 and 2017. P without data on previous cardiovascular history or uncompleted clinical data were excluded. Statistical analysis used chi-square, non-parametric tests, logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis. Results Among the 300 P admitted with AHF included, mean age was 67.4 ± 12.6 years old and 72.7% were male. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131.2 ± 37.0mmHg, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 57.1 ± 23.5ml/min. 35.3% were admitted in Killip-Kimball class (KKC) 4. ACTION-ICU score was 10.4 ± 2.3 and GWTG-HF was 41.7 ± 9.6. Inotropes’ usage was necessary in 32.7% of the P, 11.3% of the P needed non-invasive ventilation (NIV), 8% needed invasive ventilation (IV). IHM rate was 5% and 1mM was 8%. 6.3% of the P were readmitted 1 month after discharge. Older age (p &lt; 0.001), lower SBP (p = 0,035) and need of inotropes (p &lt; 0.001) were predictors of IHM in our population. As expected, patients presenting in KKC 4 had higher IHM (OR 8.13, p &lt; 0.001). Older age (OR 1.06, p = 0.002, CI 1.02-1.10), lower SBP (OR 1.01, p = 0.05, CI 1.00-1.02) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.09) were predictors of need of NIV. None of the variables were predictive of IV. LVEF (OR 0.924, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.899-0.949), lower SBP (OR 0.80, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.971-0.988), higher urea (OR 1.01, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.005-1.018) and lower sodium (OR 0.92, p = 0.002, CI 0.873-0.971) were predictors of inotropes’ usage. Logistic regression showed that GWTG-HF predicted IHM (OR 1.12, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.05-1.19), 1mM (OR 1.10, p = 1.10, CI 1.04-1.16) and inotropes’s usage (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.10), however it was not predictive of 1mRA, need of IV or NIV. Similarly, ACTION-ICU predicted IHM (OR 1.51, p = 0.02, CI 1.158-1.977), 1mM (OR 1.45, p = 0.002, CI 1.15-1.81) and inotropes’ usage (OR 1.22, p = 0.002, CI 1.08-1.39), but not 1mRA, the need of IV or NIV. ROC curve analysis revealed that GWTG-HF score performed better than ACTION-ICU regarding IHM (AUC 0.774, CI 0.46-0-90 vs AUC 0.731, CI 0.59-0.88) and 1mM (AUC 0.727, CI 0.60-0.85 vs AUC 0.707, CI 0.58-0.84). Conclusion In our population, both scores were able to predict IHM, 1mM and inotropes’s usage.

scholarly journals Presepsin values and prognostic nutritional index predict mortality in intensive care unit patients with sepsis: a pilot study

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichiro Shimoyama ◽  
Osamu Umegaki ◽  
Noriko Kadono ◽  
Toshiaki Minami
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prognostic Nutritional Index ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Log Rank Test ◽  
Nutritional Index

Abstract Objective Sepsis is a major cause of mortality for critically ill patients. This study aimed to determine whether presepsin values can predict mortality in patients with sepsis. Results Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Log-rank test, and multivariate analysis identified presepsin values and Prognostic Nutritional Index as predictors of mortality in sepsis patients. Presepsin value on Day 1 was a predictor of early mortality, i.e., death within 7 days of ICU admission; ROC curve analysis revealed an AUC of 0.84, sensitivity of 89%, and specificity of 77%; and multivariate analysis showed an OR of 1.0007, with a 95%CI of 1.0001–1.0013 (p = 0.0320).

scholarly journals Soluble cytotoxic T-lymphocyte–associated antigen 4 (sCTLA-4) as a potential biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in Glioma

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiajia Liu ◽  
Xiaoyi Tian ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xixiong Kang ◽  
Wenqi Song
Keyword(s):  
T Lymphocyte ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Background The cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) is widely considered as a pivotal immune checkpoint molecule to suppress antitumor immunity. However, the significance of soluble CTLA-4 (sCTLA-4) remains unclear in the patients with brain glioma. Here we aimed to investigate the significance of serum sCTLA-4 levels as a noninvasive biomarker for diagnosis and evaluation of the prognosis in glioma patients. Methods In this study, the levels of sCTLA-4 in serum from 50 patients diagnosed with different grade gliomas including preoperative and postoperative, and 50 healthy individuals were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). And then ROC curve analysis and survival analyses were performed to explore the clinical significance of sCTLA-4. Results Serum sCTLA-4 levels were significantly increased in patients with glioma compared to that of healthy individuals, and which was also positively correlated with the tumor grade. ROC curve analysis showed that the best cutoff value for sCTLA-4 for glioma is 112.1 pg/ml, as well as the sensitivity and specificity with 82.0 and 78.0%, respectively, and a cut-off value of 220.43 pg/ml was best distinguished in patients between low-grade glioma group and high-grade glioma group with sensitivity 73.1% and specificity 79.2%. Survival analysis revealed that the patients with high sCTLA-4 levels (> 189.64 pg/ml) had shorter progression-free survival (PFS) compared to those with low sCTLA-4 levels (≤189.64 pg/ml). In the univariate analysis, elder, high-grade tumor, high sCTLA-4 levels and high Ki-67 index were significantly associated with shorter PFS. In the multivariate analysis, sCTLA-4 levels and tumor grade remained an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion These findings indicated that serum sCTLA-4 levels play a critical role in the pathogenesis and development of glioma, which might become a valuable predictive biomarker for supplementary diagnosis and evaluation of the progress and prognosis in glioma.

scholarly journals Predictive CT features for the diagnosis of primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma: comparison with squamous cell carcinomas and adenocarcinomas

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Ban ◽  
Xinping Shen ◽  
Huijun Hu ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Chuanmiao Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Ct Imaging ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinomas ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Ct Features

Abstract Background To determine the predictive CT imaging features for diagnosis in patients with primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinomas (PMECs). Materials and methods CT imaging features of 37 patients with primary PMECs, 76 with squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) and 78 with adenocarcinomas were retrospectively reviewed. The difference of CT features among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas was analyzed using univariate analysis, followed by multinomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results CT imaging features including tumor size, location, margin, shape, necrosis and degree of enhancement were significant different among the PMECs, SCCs and adenocarcinomas, as determined by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Only lesion location, shape, margin and degree of enhancement remained independent factors in multinomial logistic regression analysis. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve of the obtained multinomial logistic regression model was 0.805 (95%CI: 0.704–0.906). Conclusion The prediction model derived from location, margin, shape and degree of enhancement can be used for preoperative diagnosis of PMECs.

scholarly journals Mortality risk prediction in lupus patients complicated with invasive infection in the emergency department: LUPHAS score

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 1759720X1988555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanlong Wu ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Yuhong Zhou ◽  
Chao Tang ◽  
Feng Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Invasive Infection ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Qsofa Score

Background: Infection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to establish a clinical prediction model for the 3-month all-cause mortality of invasive infection events in patients with SLE in the emergency department. Methods: SLE patients complicated with invasive infection admitted into the emergency department were included in this study. Patient’s demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics on admission were retrospectively collected as baseline data and compared between the deceased and the survivors. Independent predictors were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. A prediction model for all-cause mortality was established and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 130 eligible patients were collected with a cumulative 38.5% 3-month mortality. Lymphocyte count <800/ul, urea >7.6mmol/l, maximum prednisone dose in the past ⩾60 mg/d, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, and age at baseline were independent predictors for all-cause mortality (LUPHAS). In contrast, a history of hydroxychloroquine use was protective. In a combined, odds ratio-weighted LUPHAS scoring system (score 3–22), patients were categorized to three groups: low-risk (score 3–9), medium-risk (score 10–15), and high-risk (score 16–22), with mortalities of 4.9% (2/41), 45.9% (28/61), and 78.3% (18/23) respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated that a LUPHAS score could effectively predict all-cause mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86, CI 95% 0.79–0.92]. In addition, LUPHAS score performed better than the qSOFA score alone (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.78), or CURB-65 score (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.80) in the subgroup of lung infections ( n = 108). Conclusions: Based on a large emergency cohort of lupus patients complicated with invasive infection, the LUPHAS score was established to predict the short-term all-cause mortality, which could be a promising applicable tool for risk stratification in clinical practice.

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