scholarly journals The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 341-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Adam Schlosser ◽  
Kenneth Strzepek ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Charles Fant ◽  
Élodie Blanc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Water

The impacts of global water stress and the costs of mitigation in the future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingcai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Withdrawal ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Water Stress Index ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Water

<p>Water stress has increased in many regions of the world during the past decades. It would be likely to continue in the near future due to intensified human activities and changing climate. Better projection of future water stress will facilitate water resources management and planning. Based on the improved water stress index (), we assess the future changes in water stress at the country level under climatic change and socioeconomic dynamics (e.g., population growth, economic development, land-use change) across scenarios. The water deficit, the unmet water demands against local water resources, is estimated for each country. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the global water stress are demonstrated and the main driving force is identified for the exacerbated stress on humans. The monetary value of the water deficit is estimated based on the water price valued for different sources of water withdrawal (e.g., surface water, groundwater, desalination, etc.). The total costs to mitigate or eliminate future water stress are estimated for each country. Finally, the risks and vulnerability due to global change in the future are assessed for each country. This study could be a reference for adaptation to climate change and the potential costs to achieve the SDGs in 2030.</p>

scholarly journals The global water crises: a cross-national analysis of metabolic rift theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Hargrove
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Water Access ◽  
Metabolic Rift ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Freshwater Resource ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
Water Issues ◽  
Global Water

Unchecked consumption, extraction, and growth have resulted in severe damage to ecological systems. Fresh water issues constitute one of the great challenges for political ecologists. On the one hand, there is a human health and development crisis and over 700 million people still lack access to clean, safe drinking water. On the other hand, there is a growing environmental water crisis regarding water scarcity, water stress, and freshwater resource depletion. This analysis utilizes metabolic rift theory to demonstrate the disruptive consequences that human development and agriculture have on the water cycle. I use two-way fixed effects longitudinal regression for 176 nations from 1970-2015 to test how agriculture, capital, international aid, governance, and civil society are associated with two important water indicators: access to water and water stress. I find that agriculture is associated with higher levels of water stress and higher levels of water access. Higher GDP per capita and international aid increase water access but have no significant relationship with water stress. Additionally, international non-governmental organizations and environmental treaty ratifications are associated with decreased water stress, but also decreased water access. Therefore, I find that the disruptive processes of capital and development have differential impacts on these two interrelated water outcomes. This political ecological analysis suggests that simple solutions that address water access or water stress alone, without considering the interrelated aspects of global water issues, may inadvertently influence other facets of the world's growing water concerns. Furthermore, agriculture and development create an ever-growing metabolic rift in the processes that allow fresh water to replenish itself, leading to future global issues of water access and stress.

scholarly journals The fate of Earth’s ocean

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 569-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bounama ◽  
S. Franck ◽  
W. von Bloh
Keyword(s):  
Sea Water ◽  
Water Movement ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Outer Space ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. Questions of how water arrived on the Earth’s surface, how much water is contained in the Earth system as a whole, and how much water will be available in the future in the surface reservoirs are of central importance to our understanding of the Earth. To answer the question about the fate of the Earth’s ocean, one has to study the global water cycle under conditions of internal and external forcing processes. Modern estimates suggest that the transport of water to the surface is five times smaller than water movement to the mantle, so that the Earth will lose all its sea-water in one billion years from now. This straightforward extrapolation of subduction-zone fluxes into the future seems doubtful. Using a geophysical modelling approach it was found that only 27% of the modern ocean will be subducted in one billion years. Internal feedbacks will not be the cause of the ocean drying out. Instead, the drying up of surface reservoirs in the future will be due to the increase in temperature caused by a maturing Sun connected to hydrogen escape to outer space. Keywords: Surface water reservoir, water fluxes, regassing, degassing, global water cycle

Integrated Assessment of the land system: The future of land use

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 517-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kasper Kok ◽  
Peter H. Verburg ◽  
Tom (A.) Veldkamp
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Land System ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 1: Global water supply and demand under extreme radiative forcing

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 3327-3381 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. I. Hejazi ◽  
J. Edmonds ◽  
L. Clarke ◽  
P. Kyle ◽  
E. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9–10% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32–37% by 2095. This results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

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