ABSTRACT
Probabilistic arguments about the existence of technological life beyond Earth traditionally refer to the Drake equation to draw possible estimates of the number of technologically advanced civilizations releasing, either intentionally or not, electromagnetic emissions in the Milky Way. Here, we introduce other indicators than Drake’s number ND to develop a demography of artificial emissions populating the Galaxy. We focus on three main categories of statistically independent signals (isotropic, narrow beams, and rotating beacons) to calculate the average number NG of emission processes present in the Galaxy and the average number of them crossing Earth, $\bar{k}$, which is a quantity amenable to statistical estimation from direct observations. We show that $\bar{k}$ coincides with ND only for isotropic emissions, while $\bar{k}$ can be orders of magnitude smaller than ND in the case of highly directional signals. We further show that while ND gives the number of emissions being released at the present time, NG considers also the signals from no longer active emitters but whose emissions still occupy the Galaxy. We find that as long as the average longevity of the emissions is shorter than about 105 yr, NG is fully determined by the rate of emissions alone, in contrast to ND and $\bar{k}$ which depend also on the emission longevity. Finally, using analytic formulas of NG, ND, and $\bar{k}$ determined for each type of emission processes here considered, we provide a comprehensive overview of the values these quantities can possibly achieve as functions of the emission birthrates, longevities, and directionality.
Comparison study in statistical estimation of gene effects based on a real data set