Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis

We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to ination, the output gap, house prices and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the U.S. responded to real stock price growth significantly but episodically, mainly around recessions and periods of financial instability, and took real house price growth into account only in the years preceding the Great Recession. Around half of the estimated response captures the predictor role of asset prices for future ination and real economic activity, while the remaining component reects a direct response to stock prices and house prices.

Cyclical Government Spending : Theory and Empirics

This paper shows that part of what is usually labelled discretionary government spending actually varies systematically over the cycle. I exploit the pervasive gap between OLS and 2SLS local government spending multipliers to estimate how cyclical the systematic part of government spending is. Estimating a structural open economy New Keynesian model on U.S. state level data, I find that when employment decreases by $1\%$, the systematic component of government spending decreases by $0.23\%$. I also find that the empirical specification in Nakamura & Steinsson (2014) does a good job in recovering the true impact multiplier effect, but that it overestimates the long-run cumulative effect.

Improving Ensemble Weather Prediction System Initialization: Disentangling the Contributions from Model Systematic Errors and Initial Perturbation Size

Characteristics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF’s) 0000 UTC diagnosed 2-m temperatures (T2m) from 4D-Var and global ensemble forecasts initial conditions were examined in 2018 over the contiguous United States at 1/2° grid spacing. These were compared against independently generated, upscaled high-resolution T2m analyses that were created with a somewhat novel data assimilation methodology, an extension of classical optimal interpolation (OI) to surface data analysis. The analysis used a high-resolution, spatially detailed climatological background and was statistically unbiased. Differences of the ECMWF 4D-Var T2m initial states from the upscaled OI reference were decomposed into a systematic component and a residual component. The systematic component was determined by applying a temporal smoothing to the time series of differences between the ECMWF T2m analyses and the OI analyses. Systematic errors at 0000 UTC were commonly 1 K or more and larger in the mountainous western United States, with the ECMWF analyses cooler than the reference. The residual error is regarded as random in character and should be statistically consistent with the spread of the ensemble of initial conditions after inclusion of OI analysis uncertainty. This analysis uncertainty was large in the western United States, complicating interpretation. There were some areas suggestive of an overspread initial ensemble, with others underspread. Assimilation of more observations in the reference OI analysis would reduce analysis uncertainty, facilitating more conclusive determination of initial-condition ensemble spread characteristics.

Executive Compensation and Relative Performance Evaluation Relationship Analysis

The research objective is to verify if the variable compensation of executives is established based on the relative performance evaluation, based on their abilities, or if there is the so-called "lucky payment", in which they are benefited or harmed by oscillations that affect the entire market. The literature shows that variable remuneration is characterized as one of the main mechanisms to align interests between investors and executives. In Brazil, there is evidence of a relationship between variable remuneration and managers' performance, but a gap to be filled consists of identifying whether or not such remuneration disregards the systematic component of performance, linked to movements and shocks that affect the entire sector. The sample comprises the listed companies listed in B3, except those operating in regulated segments, such as financial institutions and public utilities. The period of analysis comprises the years 2010 to 2015, where the information on remuneration is now disclosed through the Reference Form. After self-selection control, because of companies that filed injunctions to avoid disclosure of executive compensation, evidence indicates that executives are usually paid "by luck." Only when the market performs negatively and the executive performs above it is that relative performance employed. The research assists in a better understanding of the remuneration policy of Brazilian organizations, complementing other research on the temporal aspect and the comparison of the peers' performances in the sectors.

COVID-19 outbreak and beyond: the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to extract unexpected changes or shocks to log short-time workers. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate model for quarterly GDP growth to capture timely, current-quarter unexpected changes in growth dynamics. Included shocks additionally explain 24% in GDP growth variation. The model is able to forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval includes a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A recovery to pre-crisis GDP level in 2021 lies only in the upper tail of the 95% highest forecast density interval.

Model of the inertial and optical navigation system of the unmanned aerial vehicle

In article approaches to creation of the complex inertial and optical navigation system of the short-range tactical unmanned aerial vehicle are considered. Algorithms constant and periodic (in intermediate points of a route) are offered correction of the platformless onboard inertial navigation system. At integration of information on parameters of the movement of the unmanned aerial vehicle (received from the considered systems) the invariant loosely coupled scheme of data processing on the basis of the expanded filter of Kallman was used that allowed to lower significantly a systematic component of an error of the platformless inertial navigation system. Advantages of the complex inertial and optical navigation system when ensuring flight of the unmanned aerial vehicle in an area of coverage of means of radio-electronic fight of the opponent are shown. The results of modeling confirming a possibility of ensuring precision characteristics of the inertial and optical navigation system in the absence of signals of satellite radio navigational systems are presented.

When Deliberation Produces Persuasion rather than Polarization: Measuring and modeling Small Group Dynamics in a Field Experiment

This article proposes a new statistical method to measure persuasion within small groups, and applies this approach to a large-scale randomized deliberative experiment. The authors define the construct of ‘persuasion’ as a change in the systematic component of an individual's preference, separate from measurement error, that results from exposure to interpersonal interaction. Their method separately measures persuasion in a latent (left–right) preference space and in a topic-specific preference space. The model's functional form accommodates tests of substantive hypotheses found in the small-group literature. The article illustrates the measurement method by examining changes in study participants' views on US fiscal policy resulting from the composition of the small discussion groups to which they were randomly assigned. The results are inconsistent with the ‘law of small-group polarization’, the typical result found in small-group research; instead, the authors observe patterns of latent and policy-specific persuasion consistent with the aspirations of deliberation.

Exploring geographic variation in acute appendectomy in Ireland: results from a national registry study

ObjectiveTo explore geographic variations in Irish laparoscopic and open appendectomy procedures.DesignAnalysis based on 2014–2017 administrative hospital data from public hospitals.SettingCounties of Ireland.ParticipantsIrish residents with hospital admissions for an appendectomy as the principal procedure.Main outcome measuresAge and gender standardised laparoscopic and open appendectomy rates for 26 counties. Geographic variation measured with the extremal quotient (EQ), coefficient of variation (CV) and the systematic component of variation (SCV).Results23 684 appendectomies were included. 77.6% (n= 18,387) were performed laparoscopically. An EQ of 8.3 for laparoscopy and 10.0 for open appendectomy was determined. A high CV was demonstrated with a value of 36.7 and 80.8 for laparoscopic and open appendectomy, respectively. An SCV of 14.2 and 124.8 for laparoscopic and open appendectomy was observed. A wider variation was determined when children and adults were assessed separately.ConclusionsThe geographic distribution in rates of appendectomy varies considerably across Irish counties. Our data suggest that a patient’s likelihood of undergoing a laparoscopic or open appendectomy is associated with their county of residence.

Assessing Sustainability-Related Systematic Reputational Risk through Voting Results in Corporate Meetings: A Cross-Industry Analysis

This research uses Sharpe’s single-index model to analyze voting results in corporate meetings, thus assessing whether voting results at the corporate level are influenced by aggregated voting results at the industry level. We use a sample of votes regarding managerial proposals concerning executive election and compensation. The companies involved are included in the five most represented industries in NASDAQ, and the analysis focuses on the 2003–2017 period. The votes were disclosed by institutional investors who are especially concerned with corporate governance and sustainability issues, so we consider that they reflect sustainability-driven decisions. Based on previous research linking voting results to reputational consequences, we assess the systematic component of sustainability-related reputational risk within these five industries, finding significant differences among them. Thus, although the systematic component of sustainability-related reputational risk appears to be strong for financial and technological companies, it is weak for healthcare, consumer services, and capital goods companies. Implications for researchers and practitioners are reported.