Multistep energy consumption forecasting by metaheuristic optimization of time‐series analysis and machine learning

Author(s):  
Jui‐Sheng Chou ◽  
Dinh‐Nhat Truong
Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Fan ◽  
Litang Hu ◽  
Hongliang Wang ◽  
Xin Liu

Pumping tests are very important means for investigating aquifer properties; however, interpreting the data using common analytical solutions become invalid in complex aquifer systems. The paper aims to explore the potential of machine learning methods in retrieving the pumping tests information in a field site in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A newly planned mining site with a pumping test of three pumping wells and 28 observation wells over one month was chosen to analyze the significance of machine learning methods in the pumping test analysis. Widely used machine learning methods, including correlation, cluster, time-series analysis, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVR), random forest (RF) method, and linear regression, are all used in this study. Correlation and cluster analyses among wells provide visual pictures of possible hydraulic connections. The pathway with the best permeability ranges from the depth of 250 m to 350 m. Time-series analysis perfectly captured changes of drawdowns within the three pumping wells. The RF method is found to have the higher accuracy and the lower sensitivity to model parameters than ANN and SVR methods. The coupling of the linear regressive model and analytical solutions is applied to estimate hydraulic conductivities. The results found that ML methods can significantly and effectively improve our understanding of pumping tests by revealing inherent information hidden in those tests.


2021 ◽  
Vol 267 ◽  
pp. 01009
Author(s):  
Weizheng Kong ◽  
Hongcai Dai ◽  
Yaohua Wang ◽  
Xiaoyu Wu ◽  
Rui Chen

Accelerating the transformation of the energy consumption pattern in western China and promoting the development of clean energy are the main problems facing the energy consumption system. This paper bases on the characteristics of China’s western region the industrial structure, the energy consumption structure, and analyses the energy consumption model transformation trend of typical of the west, on this basis, the combination of time series analysis and ARIMA model is used to set up different typical energy consumption in the field of forecast and analysis, and put forward according to the results of the analysis of energy consumption model transformation.


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