Mechanically coupling on the plate interface in the Nankai trough, Japan and a possible seismic and aseismic rupture scenario for megathrust earthquakes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuhiko Saito ◽  
Akemi Noda
Keyword(s):  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes

On the cause of enhanced landward motion of the overriding plate after a major subduction earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario D'Acquisto ◽  
Matthew Herman ◽  
Rob Govers
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Rupture Zone ◽  
Elastic Response ◽  
Postseismic Deformation ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Mechanical Coupling ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Viscous Relaxation

<div> <p>During and after a large megathrust earthquake, the overriding plate above the rupture zone moves oceanward. Enigmatically, the post-seismic motion of the overriding plate after several recent large earthquakes, further along strike from the rupture zone, was faster in the landward direction than before the event. Previous studies interpreted these changes as the result of increased mechanical coupling along the megathrust interface, transient slab acceleration, or bulk postseismic deformation with elastic bending mentioned as a possible underlying mechanism. Before invoking additional mechanisms, it is important to understand the contribution of postseismic deformation processes that are inherent features of megathrust earthquakes. We thus aim to quantify and analyse the deformation that produces landward motion during afterslip and viscous relaxation. </p> </div><div> <p>We use velocity-driven 3D mechanical finite element models, in which large megathrust earthquakes occur periodically on the finite plate interface. The model geometry is similar to most present-day subduction zones, but does not exactly match any specific subduction zone. </p> </div><div> <p>The results show increased post-seismic landward motion at (trench-parallel) distances greater than 450 km from the middle of the ruptured asperity. Similar patterns of landward motion are generated by viscous relaxation in the mantle wedge and by deep afterslip on the shear zone downdip of the brittle megathrust interface. Landward displacement due to postseismic relaxation largely accumulates at exponentially decaying rates until ~6 Maxwell relaxation times after the earthquake. The spatial distribution and magnitude of the velocity changes is broadly consistent with observations related to both the 2010 Maule and the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquakes.  </p> </div><div> <p>Further model experiments show that patterns of landward motion due to afterslip and to viscous relaxation are insensitive to the locking pattern of the megathrust. However, the locking distribution does affect the magnitudes of the displacements and velocities. Results show that the increased landward displacement due to postseismic deformation scales directly proportionally to seismic moment. </p> </div><div> <p>We conclude that the landward motion results from in-plane horizontal bending of the overriding plate and mantle. This bending is an elastic response to oceanward tractions near the base of the plate around the ruptured asperity, causing extension locally and compression further away along-trench. This elastic in-plate bending consistently contributes to earthquake-associated changes in surface velocities for the biggest megathrust earthquakes, producing landward motion along strike from the rupture zone.</p> </div>

What Caused the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake? : Effects of Dynamic Weakening

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 252-263
Author(s):  
Bunichiro Shibazaki ◽  
◽  
Hiroyuki Noda ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Japan Trench ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Shallow Subduction ◽  
Thermal Pressurization ◽  
Dynamic Weakening ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Earthquake Effects ◽  
Experimental And Theoretical Studies

Some observational studies have suggested that the 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) released a large portion of the accumulated elastic strain on the plate interface owing to considerable weakening of the fault. Recent experimental and theoretical studies have shown that considerable dynamic weakening can occur at high slip velocities because of thermal pressurization or thermal weakening processes. This paper reviews severalmodels of the generation of megathrust earthquakes along the Japan Trench subduction zone, that considers thermal pressurization or a friction law that exhibits velocity weakening at high slip velocities, and it discusses the causes of megathrust earthquakes. To reproduce megathrust earthquakes with recurrence intervals of several hundreds of years, it will be necessary to consider the existence of a region at the shallow subduction plate boundary where significant dynamic weakening occurs due to thermal pressurization or other thermal weakening processes.

scholarly journals Synthetic analysis of the efficacy of the S-net system in tsunami forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iyan E. Mulia ◽  
Kenji Satake
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Pressure Sensors ◽  
Japan Trench ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
Seafloor Observation ◽  
Earthquake Size

AbstractThe Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net) is presently the world’s largest network of ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami monitoring. This paper analyzes the efficacy of such a vast system in tsunami forecasting through exhaustive synthetic experiments. We consider 1500 hypothetical tsunami scenarios from megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from Mw 7.7–9.1. We employ a stochastic slip model to emulate heterogeneous slip patterns on specified 240 subfaults over the plate interface of the Japan Trench subduction zone and its vicinity. Subsequently, the associated tsunamis in terms of maximum coastal tsunami heights are evaluated along the 50-m isobath by means of a Green’s function summation. To produce tsunami forecasts, we utilize a tsunami inversion from virtually observed waveforms at the S-net stations. Remarkably, forecasts accuracy of approximately 99% can be achieved using tsunami data within an interval of 3 to 5 min after the earthquake (2-min length), owing to the exceedingly dense observation points. Additionally, we apply an optimization technique to determine the optimal combination of stations with respect to earthquake magnitudes. The results show that the minimum requisite number of stations to maintain the accuracy attained by the existing network configuration decreases from 130 to 90 when the earthquake size increases from Mw 7.7 to 9.1.

scholarly journals Mid- to late-Holocene marine inundations inferred from coastal deposits facing the Nankai Trough in Nankoku, Kochi Prefecture, southern Japan

The Holocene ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 867-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichiro Tanigawa ◽  
Masanobu Shishikura ◽  
Osamu Fujiwara ◽  
Yuichi Namegaya ◽  
Dan Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Southern Japan ◽  
Lowland Area ◽  
Coastal Deposits ◽  
Sedimentary Fill ◽  
Kochi Prefecture ◽  
Sand Sheets

This study investigates the Holocene sedimentary history of a small coastal lowland in Nankoku, Kochi Prefecture, on the coast of southern Japan facing the Nankai Trough. The sedimentary fill of the lowland area consists mainly of marine-brackish clay overlain by beds of freshwater clay and peat. We found four laterally extensive sand sheets, one directly underlying the freshwater deposits and the other three interbedded with them. Radiocarbon dates show that these sand sheets were deposited between 5970 and 2440 cal. BP. Although the sand sheets contained few marine-brackish diatoms, they were concentrated in the seaward part of the study site, suggesting that they were deposited by marine inundations. These sand sheets were formed as a result of tsunamis or unusually large storm surges. The apparent frequency of marine inundations during 5970–2440 cal. BP was much lower than that of megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough recorded during the last 1300 years. Event deposits were absent between 2440 and 960 cal. BP, a gap that we attribute to the development of beach ridges. The new marine inundation records reported here will aid efforts to reconstruct the timing and recurrence intervals of megathrust earthquakes in the western Nankai Trough.

Tsunami scenarios for megathrust earthquakes: mechanics of multi-segment ruptures and elastic-fluid dynamics of wave propagation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuhiko Saito ◽  
Akemi Noda
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Strain Energy ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Bottom Pressure ◽  
Ocean Bottom Pressure ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Great Earthquakes ◽  
Pressure Changes

<p>Great earthquakes repeatedly occurred with different rupture processes in the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan. The 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankai earthquakes (M ~8) caused serious tsunami damage over many areas along the coastline. The greatest earthquake in this region is the 1707 Hoei earthquake (M 8.4) that is believed to have ruptured the whole region (~600 km) of the Nankai Trough. The purpose of this study is to theoretically assess the tsunami height along the coasts excited by great earthquakes that can possibly occur in future in this region and simulate observable tsunami records during the earthquakes.</p><p>This study employed a new method for making various rupture scenarios. Based on a shear-stress distribution along the plate boundary estimated by the GNSS data analyses (Noda et al. 2018 JGR), we calculated coseismic slip distributions to release the accumulated stress for possible multi-segment rupture scenarios. Then, we used the strain energy released by the rupture to evaluate the possibility of each event. The released strain energy should be larger than the energy dissipated on the fault. However, for some scenarios, the released strain energy was smaller than the dissipated energy under the assumptions of friction laws. Such rupture scenarios are not likely to occur in the viewpoint of earthquake mechanics. This approach can provide necessary conditions of the strain energy or the accumulated stress levels for multi-segment rupture processes, while methods based on empirical or kinematic approaches do not treat stress or interseimsmic stress-accumulation periods required for ruptures.</p><p>Another distinctive point in our approach is that we theoretically synthesize ocean-bottom pressure changes caused by both seismic waves and tsunamis using a simulation method based on elastic and fluid dynamics (Saito and Tsushima 2016 JGR; Saito et al. 2019 Tectonophysics). Seismic wave contributions to ocean-bottom pressure changes are critically important for the synthetics in near-field or inside rupture areas because the seismic waves overlap with tsunami signals and work as noise for real-time tsunami monitoring. The records simulated in this study can be used to examine the monitoring ability of a deep-ocean observation network for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis in this region.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of Slow Slip Event in March 2020 Revealed From Borehole and DONET Observatories

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keisuke Ariyoshi ◽  
Takeshi Iinuma ◽  
Masaru Nakano ◽  
Toshinori Kimura ◽  
Eiichiro Araki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Crustal Deformation ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Pressure Sensors ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Volumetric Strain ◽  
Time History ◽  
Pressure Change ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Deformation Component

We have detected an event of pore pressure change (hereafter, we refer it to “pore pressure event”) from borehole stations in real time in March 2020, owing to the network developed by connecting three borehole stations to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) observatories near the Nankai Trough. During the pore pressure event, shallow very low-frequency events (sVLFEs) were also detected from the broadband seismometers of DONET, which suggests that the sVLFE migrated toward updip region along the subduction plate boundary. Since one of the pore pressure sensors have been suffered from unrecognized noise after the replacement of sensors due to the connecting operation, we assume four cases for crustal deformation component of the pore pressure change. Comparing the four possible cases for crustal deformation component of the volumetric strain change at C0010 with the observed sVLFE migration and the characteristic of previous SSEs, we conclude that the pore pressure event can be explained from SSE migration toward the updip region which triggered sVLFE in the passage. This feature is similar to the previous SSE in 2015 and could be distinguished from the unrecognized noise on the basis of t-test. Our new finding is that the SSE in 2020 did not reach very shallow part of the plate interface because the pore pressure changes at a borehole station installed in 2018 close to the trough axis was not significant. In the present study, we estimated the amount, onset and termination time of the pore pressure change for the SSE in 2020 by fitting regression lines for the time history. Since the change amount and duration time were smaller and shorter than the SSE in 2015, respectively, we also conclude that the SSE in 2020 had smaller magnitude that the SSE in 2015. These results would give us a clue to monitor crustal deformation along the Nankai Trough directly from other seafloor observations.

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