Re-evaluating Antarctic sea-ice variability and its teleconnections in a GISS global climate model with improved sea ice and ocean processes

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 841-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Xiaojun Yuan ◽  
Douglas G. Martinson ◽  
David Rind
2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 2349-2363 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Ridley ◽  
J. A. Lowe ◽  
H. T. Hewitt

Abstract. It is well accepted that increasing atmospheric CO2 results in global warming, leading to a decline in polar sea ice area. Here, the specific question of whether there is a tipping point in the sea ice cover is investigated. The global climate model HadCM3, is used to map the trajectory of sea ice area under idealised scenarios. The atmospheric CO2 is first ramped up to four times pre-industrial levels (4 × CO2) then ramped down back to pre-industrial levels. We also examine the impact of stabilising climate at 4 × CO2 prior to ramping CO2 down to pre-industrial levels. Against global mean temperature Arctic sea ice area has little hysteresis while the Antarctic sea ice shows significant hysteresis – its rate of change slower, with falling temperatures, than its rate of change with rising temperatures. However, we show that the driver of the hysteresis is the hemispherical differences in temperature change between transient and stabilisation periods. We find no irreversible behaviour in the sea ice cover.


2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 5946-5961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Sedlacek ◽  
Jean-François Lemieux ◽  
Lawrence A. Mysak ◽  
L. Bruno Tremblay ◽  
David M. Holland

Abstract The granular sea ice model (GRAN) from Tremblay and Mysak is converted from Cartesian to spherical coordinates. In this conversion, the metric terms in the divergence of the deviatoric stress and in the strain rates are included. As an application, the GRAN is coupled to the global Earth System Climate Model from the University of Victoria. The sea ice model is validated against standard datasets. The sea ice volume and area exported through Fram Strait agree well with values obtained from in situ and satellite-derived estimates. The sea ice velocity in the interior Arctic agrees well with buoy drift data. The thermodynamic behavior of the sea ice model over a seasonal cycle at one location in the Beaufort Sea is validated against the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) datasets. The thermodynamic growth rate in the model is almost twice as large as the observed growth rate, and the melt rate is 25% lower than observed. The larger growth rate is due to thinner ice at the beginning of the SHEBA period and the absence of internal heat storage in the ice layer in the model. The simulated lower summer melt is due to the smaller-than-observed surface melt.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 8975-9015
Author(s):  
E. M. Knudsen ◽  
J. E. Walsh

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 2057-2113 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Flanner ◽  
X. Liu ◽  
C. Zhou ◽  
J. E. Penner

Abstract. Here we explore light absorption by snowpack containing black carbon (BC) particles residing within ice grains. Basic considerations of particle volumes and BC/snow mass concentrations show that there are generally 0.05–109 BC particles for each ice grain. This suggests that internal BC is likely distributed as multiple inclusions within ice grains, and thus the dynamic effective medium approximation (DEMA) (Chýlek and Srivastava, 1983) is a more appropriate optical representation for BC/ice composites than coated-sphere or standard mixing approximations. DEMA calculations show that the 460 nm absorption cross-section of BC/ice composites, normalized to the mass of BC, is typically enhanced by factors of 1.8–2.1 relative to interstitial BC. BC effective radius is the dominant cause of variation in this enhancement, compared with ice grain size and BC volume fraction. We apply two atmospheric aerosol models that simulate interstitial and within-hydrometeor BC lifecycles. Although only ~2% of the atmospheric BC burden is cloud-borne, 71–83% of the BC deposited to global snow and sea-ice surfaces occurs within hydrometeors. Key processes responsible for within-snow BC deposition are development of hydrophilic coatings on BC, activation of liquid droplets, and subsequent snow formation through riming or ice nucleation by other species and aggregation/accretion of ice particles. Applying deposition fields from these aerosol models in offline snow and sea-ice simulations, we calculate that 32–73% of BC in global surface snow resides within ice grains. This fraction is smaller than the within-hydrometeor deposition fraction because meltwater flux preferentially removes internal BC, while sublimation and freezing within snowpack expose internal BC. Incorporating the DEMA into a global climate model, we simulate increases in BC/snow radiative forcing of 43–86%, relative to scenarios that apply external optical properties to all BC. We show that snow metamorphism driven by diffusive vapor transfer likely proceeds too slowly to alter the mass of internal BC while it is radiatively active, but neglected processes like wind pumping and convection may play much larger roles. These results suggest that a large portion of BC in surface snowpack may reside within ice grains and increase BC/snow radiative forcing, although measurements to evaluate this are lacking. Finally, previous studies of BC/snow forcing that neglected this absorption enhancement are not necessarily biased low, because of application of absorption-enhancing sulfate coatings to hydrophilic BC, neglect of coincident absorption by dust in snow, and implicit treatment of cloud-borne BC resulting in longer-range transport.


1994 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Pollard ◽  
Starley L. Thompson

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Docquier ◽  
Ramon Fuentes-Franco ◽  
Klaus Wyser ◽  
Torben Koenigk

<p>Arctic sea ice has been retreating at fast pace in the last decades, with potential impacts on the weather and climate at mid and high latitudes, as well as the biosphere and society. Sea-ice loss is driven by anthropogenic global warming, atmospheric circulation changes, climate feedbacks, and ocean heat transport. To date, no clear consensus regarding the detailed impact of ocean heat transport on Arctic sea ice exists. Previous observational and modeling studies show that the poleward Atlantic Ocean heat transport and Arctic sea-ice area and volume are generally anti-correlated, suggesting a decrease in sea-ice area and volume with larger ocean heat transport. In turn, the changing sea ice may also affect ocean heat transport, but this effect has been much less studied. Our study explores the two-way interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice. We use the EC-Earth global climate model, coupling the atmosphere and ocean, and perform different sensitivity experiments to gain insights into these interactions. The mechanisms by which ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice interact are analyzed, and compared to observations. This study provides a way to better constrain model projections of Arctic sea ice, based on the relationships between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 2335-2355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erlend M. Knudsen ◽  
John E. Walsh

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.


2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 51-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lettie A. Roach ◽  
Simon F. B. Tett ◽  
Michael J. Mineter ◽  
Kuniko Yamazaki ◽  
Cameron D. Rae

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